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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#601

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Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Kitty View Post
http://mmajunkie.com/news/22059/homi...t-night-23.mma
ha yeah hopefully he is the most motivated he's ever been now! I wouldnt be surprised now if Roop goes and throws a spanner in to the works! Or Hominick goes and dominates for three rounds but breaks his hand again and is out for months!
#602

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More UFC 126 Plays:

Would of put a couple more units on each of these if limits wern't in place:

0.9 units on Yamamoto/MightyMouse! to go the Distance at +137.5 to win 1.238 units (plus stake);

0.54 units on Miguel Torres by decision at +250 to win 1.35 units (plus stake).
Last edited by Vaughany; 01-12-11 at 01:02 PM.
#606

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Fight for the Troops 2 Play:

1.746 units on C.Miller/Wiman to decision at -137.5 to win 1.27 units.

Some early plays for future events:

1.871 units on Nogueira/Ortiz to decision at -150 to win 1.247 units;

1 unit on Machida by TKO/KO at +125 to win 1.25 units;

1 unit on GSP by decision at +120 to win 1.2 units.
#607

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Fight for the Troops 2 Play: 1.746 units on C.Miller/Wiman to decision at -137.5 to win 1.27 units. Some early plays for future events: 1.871 units on Nogueira/Ortiz to decision at -150 to win 1.247 units; 1 unit on Machida by TKO/KO at +125 to win 1.25 units; 1 unit on GSP by decision at +120 to win 1.2 units.
I like the Machida by KO play. I'm going to hop all over that! I really think he is going to put Handy to sleep in this one.
#608

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Summary of Fight for the Troops 2 Plays so far:


2.5 units on Hominick at -224 to win 1.116 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Hominick by Submission at +400 to win 0.8 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Wiman at +190 to win 1.9 units (plus stake);

1.746 units on C.Miller/Wiman to decision at -137.5 to win 1.27 units (plus stake);

0.211 units on Wiman by KO at +750 to win 1.582 units (plus stake);

0.4 units on Mitrione by Decision at +333 to win 1.333 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Beltran by Submission at +1400 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.837 units on Mitrione, Barry, Hominick, & Ellenberger to win 2.17 units (plus stake).
#609

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Summary of Fight for the Troops 2 Plays so far:


2.5 units on Hominick at -224 to win 1.116 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Hominick by Submission at +400 to win 0.8 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Wiman at +190 to win 1.9 units (plus stake);

1.746 units on C.Miller/Wiman to decision at -137.5 to win 1.27 units (plus stake);

0.211 units on Wiman by KO at +750 to win 1.582 units (plus stake);

0.4 units on Mitrione by Decision at +333 to win 1.333 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Beltran by Submission at +1400 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.837 units on Mitrione, Barry, Hominick, & Ellenberger to win 2.17 units (plus stake).
i was impressed by roop`s win over korean zombie...he`s improving...just seems like homonick is a rising star...on another level...can`t think of many guys that become more impressive with every fight....

i`ve become a sort of mitrione admirer...i was thinking(hoping) that we might continue to get favorable odds on the guy for another fight or two...

i was wrong.... ..i was very diappointed seeing him open as such a prohibitive fave here...

barry is a conundrum...love those kicks...he can disable guys quickly...just don`t trust him vs very durable opposition....i expect him to win here...maybe parlay material...but he scares me...

keep up the great work,v...you are one of our linchpins here..one of our "go to" guys....
#610

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Quote Originally Posted by rocky mattioli View Post
i was impressed by roop`s win over korean zombie...he`s improving...just seems like homonick is a rising star...on another level...can`t think of many guys that become more impressive with every fight....

i`ve become a sort of mitrione admirer...i was thinking(hoping) that we might continue to get favorable odds on the guy for another fight or two...

i was wrong.... ..i was very diappointed seeing him open as such a prohibitive fave here...

barry is a conundrum...love those kicks...he can disable guys quickly...just don`t trust him vs very durable opposition....i expect him to win here...maybe parlay material...but he scares me...

keep up the great work,v...you are one of our linchpins here..one of our "go to" guys....
Cheers Rocky, much appreciated!

Roop has improved a lot over the last 24 months, however, I feel that the facts are that he was the last pick on TUF amonst, IMO, an average group of lightweight fighters. He scraped a win against Dave Kaplan who was a mediocre fighter and then lost to Nelson who isnt impressive either. Of course he is now at a lower weight division where he has a considerable size and reach advantage, but Im just not convinced that this can bridge the gap in technical ability that is between him and the better guys at bantamweight and featherweight such as Wineland (who schooled him) and Hominick. I cant help but imagine that if Hominick had of been on that TUF he'd of tooled with the likes Roop!

Hague and Beltran are durable dudes and I could see one of those two fights going to decision. I've got Mitrione by decision already and may add Barry by decision as well. Can get it at +350 on paddy but going to wait and see if I can get it at +400 elsewhere before pulling the trigger.
#611

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Hague and Beltran are durable dudes and I could see one of those two fights going to decision. I've got Mitrione by decision already and may add Barry by decision as well. Can get it at +350 on paddy but going to wait and see if I can get it at +400 elsewhere before pulling the trigger.
I will most likely be on Hague/Mitrione under 2.5 rounds. These are 2 big dudes with power who are both sloppy strikers. I don't think either of them has particularly good defense and they both let their hands hang once they tire after a round. Mitrione was rocked a couple times vs. Beltran as was Hague and Beltran doesn't have devastating KO power. Hague has been beaten down vs. Barry, Beltran and against Zak Jensen outside of the UFC. That fight was close to being stopped before he was able to luckily get back to his feet and hit a big knee to drop Jensen. He's pretty durable but against a fellow 260+ fighter, I can see him getting finished. And I wouldn't put it past Hague to finish Mitrione. The guy hits very hard. The punch he landed on Wiuff in his most recent fight didnt even look like it landed flush and Wiuff crumbled. Both guys like to get in wild exchanges and I think one will have their lights turned out.
#612

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Good bets. Im still concerned Barry has zero ground game and Beltran will be determined to get takedowns(he went for them versus Houston Alexander and Meat. He'll know he has no business standing with Barry). Same applies with Meat vs Hague. Mitrione has garbage takedown defense. Not sure about Hague's takedowns though. Both Meat and Barry should win impressively, but I stay away.

I'm gonna follow on the Hominick play over Roop. I wanted to slash Roop's throat for the way he ruined my parlay with KZ on it. I hope he gets slaughtered. Hominick is a legit striker, so I don't see Roop pulling off that hit and move bullshit that he did on KZ, who seemed unmotivated.
#613

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Quote Originally Posted by Eccocide View Post
I will most likely be on Hague/Mitrione under 2.5 rounds. These are 2 big dudes with power who are both sloppy strikers. I don't think either of them has particularly good defense and they both let their hands hang once they tire after a round. Mitrione was rocked a couple times vs. Beltran as was Hague and Beltran doesn't have devastating KO power. Hague has been beaten down vs. Barry, Beltran and against Zak Jensen outside of the UFC. That fight was close to being stopped before he was able to luckily get back to his feet and hit a big knee to drop Jensen. He's pretty durable but against a fellow 260+ fighter, I can see him getting finished. And I wouldn't put it past Hague to finish Mitrione. The guy hits very hard. The punch he landed on Wiuff in his most recent fight didnt even look like it landed flush and Wiuff crumbled. Both guys like to get in wild exchanges and I think one will have their lights turned out.
Very true, I've only just watched the Jensen fight and you're right he was gettin beat early on. And it's true that they dont exactly have the best defence. Would of been all over the -120 odds that came out on 5dimes/Sportbet for the fight to not go the distance, ridiculous odds Will have to wait and see what the under on Pinnacle comes out at
Last edited by Vaughany; 01-14-11 at 03:30 AM.
#614

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Quote Originally Posted by koscheckbaby View Post
Good bets. Im still concerned Barry has zero ground game and Beltran will be determined to get takedowns(he went for them versus Houston Alexander and Meat. He'll know he has no business standing with Barry). Same applies with Meat vs Hague. Mitrione has garbage takedown defense. Not sure about Hague's takedowns though. Both Meat and Barry should win impressively, but I stay away.

I'm gonna follow on the Hominick play over Roop. I wanted to slash Roop's throat for the way he ruined my parlay with KZ on it. I hope he gets slaughtered. Hominick is a legit striker, so I don't see Roop pulling off that hit and move bullshit that he did on KZ, who seemed unmotivated.
Yeah against most heavyweights Barry would be in big trouble on the ground but with Beltran he may have been able to bridge the gap enough to survive there with Beltran. KZ I think may have been caught up in the whole post-Garcia hype and adulation and was looking for another, and perhaps, expecting another drawn out exciting FOTN brawl with Roop. He was less technical than he has been in the past and kept his hands low. Hominick wont make the same mistake.
#615

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Parlay: 1 unit on Hominick by decision, Not Guillard by submission, Not Mitrione by submission, Not Wiman by submission, & not Barry by submission to win 1.513 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.315 units on Hominick/Roop to decision, Mitrione/Hague to not go to decision, Diaz, Overeem, & Fitch to win 1.908 units (plus stake).