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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#455

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UFC 124 plays so far:

2.5 units on Miller/Oliveira to decision at -137.5 to win 1.818 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Bocek at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2 units on GSP by decision at +150 to win 3 units (plus stake);

0.166 units on Koscheck by TKO/KO at +900 to win 1.494 units (plus stake);

0.563 units on Alves/Howard 'Fight of the Night' at +750 to win 4.223 units (plus stake).
Last edited by Vaughany; 12-08-10 at 04:35 PM.
#458

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Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
Love Jim Miller here. I found him at +115. Best of luck this weekend!
Cheers bro, good luck to u 2. Yeah I was too quick to jump the gun! Came out on Pinnacle at -101 and didnt think it would get better than +105 so took that, but ended up reaching +119 at one point on pinny so should of waited. Not too much of a difference tho.
#459

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I went a little nuts with miller. Hit him with 2 units like three times. Once when he hit +105 and twice when he hit +112. Line is shrinking back to EV now so looks like I hit it right. But still, big risk for a close fight.

I feel good about it, though. It's rare we see prospects get thrown that deep and Miller is game right now and showing no signs of stopping.
#460

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Quote Originally Posted by kiefynugs View Post
I went a little nuts with miller. Hit him with 2 units like three times. Once when he hit +105 and twice when he hit +112. Line is shrinking back to EV now so looks like I hit it right. But still, big risk for a close fight.

I feel good about it, though. It's rare we see prospects get thrown that deep and Miller is game right now and showing no signs of stopping.
Well I've hedged my Miller play with the fight going the distance just in case Oliveira gets the decision (which wouldnt be surprising even if he gets dominated!). Might even hedge further with Oliveira Submission of the Night at +900.
#461

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Well I've hedged my Miller play with the fight going the distance just in case Oliveira gets the decision (which wouldnt be surprising even if he gets dominated!). Might even hedge further with Oliveira Submission of the Night at +900.

haha i might borrow that move from you if bookmaker gets the stones to put up some prop odds for this event.
#462

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As I've done pretty well recently and am due a bad event I thought I'd do a little experimenting and try spreading my bets on the event bonuses!:

0.3 units on GSP 'Submission of the Night' at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Struve 'Submission of the Night' at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Dan Miller 'Submission of the Night' at +1200 to win 1.2 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Stevenson 'Submission of the Night' at +1600 to win 1.6 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Hazelett 'Submission of the Night' at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Oliveira 'Submission of the Night' at +1100 to win 2.2 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Natal 'Submission of the Night' at +2800 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);



0.1 units on Thiago Alves 'KO of the Night' at +450 to win 0.45 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Makdessi 'KO of the Night' at +2200 to win 1.1 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Struve 'KO of the Night' at +900 to win 0.225 units (plus stake);

0.02 units on Pierson 'KO of the Night' at +3000 to win 0.6 units (plus stake);



0.563 units on Thiago Alves/Howard 'Fight of the Night' at +750 to win 4.223 units (plus stake);

0.09 units on Miller/Oliveira 'Fight of the Night' at +800 to win 0.72 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on GSP/Koscheck 'Fight of the Night' at +550 to win 0.55 units (plus stake).


Still deciding on what to do with McCorkle...will either do McCorkle 'Sub of the Night' or/and 'KO of the Night'; or just McCorkle to win in Rnd 1.
#463

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Quote Originally Posted by kiefynugs View Post
I went a little nuts with miller. Hit him with 2 units like three times. Once when he hit +105 and twice when he hit +112. Line is shrinking back to EV now so looks like I hit it right. But still, big risk for a close fight.

I feel good about it, though. It's rare we see prospects get thrown that deep and Miller is game right now and showing no signs of stopping.
YEs, I see it has went down around EV now at most books.