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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#346

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Summary of WEC 52 Plays:

1 unit on McDonald at -121 to win 0.826 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Vazquez at +252 to win 2.52 units (plus stake);

Parlay (3 from 4 folds): 0.6 units on Faber, Mendes, Jabouin, & Sotiropolous(UFC 123) to win 1.912 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Faber by decision at +150 to win 0.75 units (plus stake).


BOL all!
#348

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Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
I am also on Vazquez plus single bets of: Assuanco, Jabouin, and Fabiano vs Benavidez going to decision

BOL to you
Nice one, I reckon 2 of those 3 dogs will pull off the win! I'd of probably taken Fabiano/Benavidez to decision as well if it was available on any of my books.
#349

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Summary of WEC 52 Plays:

1 unit on Vazquez at +252 to win 2.52 units (plus stake);
I like Mendes personally, but not at -300. I think he will hold Vazquez down for three rounds. However, I see why people like Vazquez at that price. He will certainly be moneys toughest fight to date. Why not take Vazquez inside the distance and double your odds. He's at +480 at 5dimes and Sportbet now. No way Vazquez takes this one on the cards with Mendes superior wrestling. He's also a part of TAM so Faber for sure and maybe the other two will get the benefit of the judges.
#350

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Quote Originally Posted by snake11eyes View Post
I like Mendes personally, but not at -300. I think he will hold Vazquez down for three rounds. However, I see why people like Vazquez at that price. He will certainly be moneys toughest fight to date. Why not take Vazquez inside the distance and double your odds. He's at +480 at 5dimes and Sportbet now. No way Vazquez takes this one on the cards with Mendes superior wrestling. He's also a part of TAM so Faber for sure and maybe the other two will get the benefit of the judges.
IMO the value play is definitely with Vazquez in this one at +252 although I agree, if I had the option I'd of bet on Mendes by decision straddled with Vazquez by sub, but unfortunately prop plays aren't available for WEC on paddypower (except main event), skybet or pinnacle and dont have a 5dimes or Sportbet account. I've got Mendes in the parlay with Jabouin, Faber and Sotiripolous so have got a hedge of sorts in case Vazquez loses.
#353

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Quote Originally Posted by snake11eyes View Post
I think I'm going to try your straddle. Mendes by decision -110, Vazquez by sub is only 20 more +500 so I'll just take Vazquez inside for +480. Another interesting line is Vazquez by ko/tko +1800. Not likely to hit, but I love putting something like that in a parlay the payoff is crazy if you can cash the parlay.
Sounds like a win-win to me! I'd be betting reasonably big on that straddle if I could! And I agree, that Vazquez by TKO/KO at +1800 is defo worth throwing in a crazy parlay just for banter!
#354

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Sounds like a win-win to me! I'd be betting reasonably big on that straddle if I could! And I agree, that Vazquez by TKO/KO at +1800 is defo worth throwing in a crazy parlay just for banter!
Ok I got the straddle. What do you think of this parlay.
risk $10 to win $2134.75 5 Team Parlay 64424166-1 11/11/10 5:49pm
Pending 11/13/10 11:00am UFC Fighting 2002 Kris McCray -105* vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha
Pending 11/20/10 10:45pm UFC Fighting 1202 Matt Hughes +135* vs B.J. Penn
Pending 11/11/10 10:00pm WEC Fighting 2229 J.Vasquez wins by TKO/KO +1800* vs Any other result
Pending 11/11/10 9:00pm WEC Fighting 2402 Joseph Benavidez -210* vs Wagnney Fabiano
Pending 11/11/10 7:00pm WEC Fighting 2608 Michael McDonald -150* vs Clint Godfrey
#355

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Quote Originally Posted by snake11eyes View Post
Ok I got the straddle. What do you think of this parlay.
risk $10 to win $2134.75 5 Team Parlay 64424166-1 11/11/10 5:49pm
Pending 11/13/10 11:00am UFC Fighting 2002 Kris McCray -105* vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha
Pending 11/20/10 10:45pm UFC Fighting 1202 Matt Hughes +135* vs B.J. Penn
Pending 11/11/10 10:00pm WEC Fighting 2229 J.Vasquez wins by TKO/KO +1800* vs Any other result
Pending 11/11/10 9:00pm WEC Fighting 2402 Joseph Benavidez -210* vs Wagnney Fabiano
Pending 11/11/10 7:00pm WEC Fighting 2608 Michael McDonald -150* vs Clint Godfrey
ha interesting...great payout! Might wanna do a similar one but with Mendes by TKO/KO just in case!
#359

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Summary of WEC 52 Plays:

1 unit on McDonald at -121 to win 0.826 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Vazquez at +252 to win 2.52 units (plus stake);

Parlay (3 from 4 folds): 0.6 units on Faber, Mendes, Jabouin, & Sotiropolous(UFC 123) to win 1.912 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Faber by decision at +150 to win 0.75 units (plus stake).


BOL all!
WEC 52 Results:

Stake: 3.1 units (including pending parlay)
Overall return: 1.826 units (excluding pending parlay)
- 1.274 units

Faber, Mendes and Jabouin all won so my 3 out of 4 folds parlay is looking good and if Sotiripolous wins at 123 I'll have an overall return of 4.338 units resulting in a profit of 1.238 units.
#360

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Additional UFC 122 Play:

1 unit on McCray at -106 to win 0.943 units (plus stake).

My reasoning behind this play is simply because all of Rocha's wins which look impressive on paper (8 finishes with 7 subs and 1 TKO) have all been against absolute cans! Nearly all the fighters he has faced have 50/50 records with an equal amount of wins and losses. One dude even has a record of 0 and 4. Moreover, Yasin Mengulloglu who Rocha submitted in the second round was even submitted in the first round by a Welsh fighter named Paul Jenkins who has a record of 41 wins and 46 losses...a true 'pub' fighter as we say over here in England! Of course, it's not necessarily Rocha's fault that his opponents are below average as he is based in Germany and thus doesnt necessarily mean that he cant compete at a much higher level. Furthermore, McCray's opponents that he fought before entering TUF arent exactly an impressive list either but at least he showed on TUF some decent BJJ defence against Noke who is a good grappler. I'm expecting a McCray decision win here.
Last edited by Vaughany; 11-12-10 at 12:24 PM.