Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Originally Posted by snake11eyes

No worries bro i was just messin with ya. In the end it's my decision and I chose to hedge. I probably would have let it ride, but I saw the other parlay so to much was riding on it. Now I have to hedge Lesnar, but I really like him against Velaquez.

ha yee I'm going back and forth on this Lesnar fight, mainly because I'm a big fan of Cain and dont really like Lesnar! But when looking objectively, I'm leaning on Lesnar at -150 to -170 range...obviously Cain is the better technical striker but Lesnar is going to have like 40lbs size advantage isn't he? Cain is going to be the smallest fighter that Lesnar has faced yet and he is a better wrestler than Cain (Cain never got to Div 1 level as far as I know). Carwin has a lot more power yet couldnt finish Lesnar so I dont see how Cain can. Only way I see Cain winning is by a decision but then that would mean that he'd of kept the fight standing and outstruck Lesnar for five rounds...I dont see that happening as Lesnar will surely be able to get him down and win rounds that way (as we all know judges penchant for takedowns!). If Lesnar's line drops to -150 on pinnacle I may have to put a couple of units on him or put him in a parlay of my own, perhaps with Shields and Hamill.

Vaughany... Cain wrestled D1 at Arizona State with Bader, Dollaway, and Aaron Simpson. He definitely knows how to wrestle. His biggest advantage in this fight, however, will be his cardio and the fact that he throws bombs. We know that Lesnar doesn't like getting hit in the face, and if Carwin can land one of his bigger, slower bombs on the feet, Cain's quick hands should be able to find their way. Granted, Lesnar's size will come in to play if he can hold Cain down, but I'm seeing Cain's quickness, cardio, and solid enough wrestling giving Lesnar a bit of trouble. Lots of scrambling in this fight IMO. If Cain can drag this fight out, he should be able to get more and more comfortable with his range on the feet as Lesnar slows. I know Lesnar's cardio appears very good, but Cain's gas tank is incredible, and he will undoubtedly gain more and more of a speed advantage as the fight goes on.

Any thoughts on the length of Brock/Cain's fight?

Originally Posted by Shagdogy

Vaughany... Cain wrestled D1 at Arizona State with Bader, Dollaway, and Aaron Simpson. He definitely knows how to wrestle. His biggest advantage in this fight, however, will be his cardio and the fact that he throws bombs. We know that Lesnar doesn't like getting hit in the face, and if Carwin can land one of his bigger, slower bombs on the feet, Cain's quick hands should be able to find their way. Granted, Lesnar's size will come in to play if he can hold Cain down, but I'm seeing Cain's quickness, cardio, and solid enough wrestling giving Lesnar a bit of trouble. Lots of scrambling in this fight IMO. If Cain can drag this fight out, he should be able to get more and more comfortable with his range on the feet as Lesnar slows. I know Lesnar's cardio appears very good, but Cain's gas tank is incredible, and he will undoubtedly gain more and more of a speed advantage as the fight goes on.

Vaughany is right Lesnar will have close to a 50 pound advantage fight night. Are you saying it's possible for Cain to win a decision because i have to agree with Vaughany that's not going to happen. Lesnar will be able to control him for 5 rounds if needed, but I don't think Cain can withstand Brock's ground and pound that long. Cain's only chance is to stop Lesnar.

Originally Posted by snake11eyes

Are you saying it's possible for Cain to win a decision because i have to agree with Vaughany that's not going to happen. Lesnar will be able to control him for 5 rounds if needed, but I don't think Cain can withstand Brock's ground and pound that long. Cain's only chance is to stop Lesnar.

I'm not saying it will go to a decision, but I'm saying that with his quickness, footwork, and solid boxing, Cain has a chance of negating Lesnar's wrestling in a way that nobody has done before. Carwin is a power-throwing puncher who does great work in the clinch with dirty boxing, and that meant that Brock was always going to have an opportunity to close the distance in that fight. Cain, on the other hand, has more technical and crisp boxing. If he can land quick shots on Lesnar and find his range early, then he will force Lesnar to shoot from further out. Cain's wrestling is very good (not as good as Brock's obviously), and if he can force his opponent to telegraph his shots, Cain will be able to stuff him most of the time, even if it is Brock. If the fight plays out this way, then Cain will have an OPPORTUNITY to win by TKO. Do I believe that he will? Not necessarily, but I believe he's got the best shot of doing it yet.

I like Brock at -150 to -170 like Vaughany and I agree, a decision is unlikely but not impossible (see Heath Herring).

Originally Posted by Shagdogy

I'm not saying it will go to a decision, but I'm saying that with his quickness, footwork, and solid boxing, Cain has a chance of negating Lesnar's wrestling in a way that nobody has done before. Carwin is a power-throwing puncher who does great work in the clinch with dirty boxing, and that meant that Brock was always going to have an opportunity to close the distance in that fight. Cain, on the other hand, has more technical and crisp boxing. If he can land quick shots on Lesnar and find his range early, then he will force Lesnar to shoot from further out. Cain's wrestling is very good (not as good as Brock's obviously), and if he can force his opponent to telegraph his shots, Cain will be able to stuff him most of the time, even if it is Brock. If the fight plays out this way, then Cain will have an OPPORTUNITY to win by TKO. Do I believe that he will? Not necessarily, but I believe he's got the best shot of doing it yet.

I like Brock at -150 to -170 like Vaughany and I agree, a decision is unlikely but not impossible (see Heath Herring).

My fault shagdogy I thought it was you who said Cain's only chance to win is by decision, but I just reread a couple posts. It was Vaughany who said that. So my question is to him. You think Cain has a better chance to win a 5 round decision then stopping Brock inside the distance.

Originally Posted by snake11eyes

My fault shagdogy I thought it was you who said Cain's only chance to win is by decision, but I just reread a couple posts. It was Vaughany who said that. So my question is to him. You think Cain has a better chance to win a 5 round decision then stopping Brock inside the distance.

Well thats wer I keep going back and forth...judging from the Cain/Kongo fight and Lesnar/Carwin fight two things are discernible - 1) that Cain doesnt have serious knockout power (all though I laugh at those on sherdog who create threads saying that Velasquez has 'pillow fists' which he clearly doesnt, but still not one punch KO power) and 2) That Lesnar has a good chin to back up his who size and therfore is very hard to finish. This is the only reasoning behind me questioning whether Cain can TKO/KO Lesnar. For Cain to win by decision he'd have to avoid getting taken down which he may do a couple of times but the combination of Lesnar's size advantage and the fact that he is a better wrestler makes me hesitant to count on Cain picking Lesnar apart on the feet and gettin a decision that way. I think the fight going to decision could be a good bet, or at least over 3.5 rounds or something as the odds could be favourable.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Cage Warriors 38 and Bellator 33 & 35 Parlay:

0.1 units on Hecht, Veach, Konrad & Alvarez to win 0.345 units (plus stake).

Posted this parlay that I did that involved Hecht and Veach who were fighting in the Cage Warriors 38 promotion last week and lost 0.1 units (as Hecht lost), however, I had also made two big bets just before the main card fights started and forgot to post them on here. I had 5 units on Jason Young at 11/8 and 5 units on Che Mills at 5/6. Both ended up winning so made just over 11 units profit!

Quick screen-dump of my betting slip can be seen through the link below...

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Posted this parlay that I did that involved Hecht and Veach who were fighting in the Cage Warriors 38 promotion last week and lost 0.1 units (as Hecht lost), however, I had also made two big bets just before the main card fights started and forgot to post them on here. I had 5 units on Jason Young at 11/8 and 5 units on Che Mills at 5/6. Both ended up winning so made just over 11 units profit!

Quick screen-dump of my betting slip can be seen through the link below...

Nice job on Young and Mills, but you dont have to post screen shots to prove it. There will always be people who don't believe you. Who cares about them. Now If you're doing it every week that's a different story.

sweet parlay with veach

Originally Posted by snake11eyes

Nice job on Young and Mills, but you dont have to post screen shots to prove it. There will always be people who don't believe you. Who cares about them. Now If you're doing it every week that's a different story.

ha yeah cheers. I only did it for this one because I didnt post the plays before the results of the fights.

I like brock up to about -180 or so. I think it's his fight to lose.

What do you think of this parlay. Noons +210, Huerta +220, Lesnar -150, Hamill, -160, Hughes +115, Edgar +120. Risking 20 pays 2520.

Originally Posted by snake11eyes

What do you think of this parlay. Noons +210, Huerta +220, Lesnar -150, Hamill, -160, Hughes +115, Edgar +120. Risking 20 pays 2520.

Clearly has a great payout and if uve got plenty of money thn its worth a 20! But its highly unlikely that all of those dogs will win - Diaz, Alvarez or Maynard would probly ruin it! Can you not do a 4 out of 6 folds bet? - With that amount of dogs (who defo each have a chance to win) the payout could still be decent even if only 4 of the 6 fighters u have picked win, although obviously the potential maximum payout would be less but your much more likely to get something back. Im gonna have a look at what the payout would be on paddypower in a bit (the site is down at the moment for some reason).