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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#196

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What do you like about the TJ Grant matchup? I don't know too much about him, but I know I'm not impressed with Paulhino. Wish 5 dimes offered the award of the night props. I like the Guillard/stephens pick, though I could also see that going to Bader/lil Nog.

I also must say I really like your Stephens/Guillard straddle, but I'm terrified of the Melvin TKO victory. I know Stephens has never been TKO'd but he's never fought anyone even close to as explosive as Melvin on the feet. Perhaps the two toughest guys he's faced on the feet would be Fisher and Stout and neither of those guys puts anyone to sleep. I highly doubt Melvin will sub him, but the possibility of a TKO lingers in my mind. Haven't decided yet. I like the play, but I'm scared of the possibility. Can't bet scared though, I know that.
Last edited by Shagdogy; 09-22-10 at 10:13 AM.
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#198

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Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
What do you like about the TJ Grant matchup? I don't know too much about him, but I know I'm not impressed with Paulhino. Wish 5 dimes offered the award of the night props. I like the Guillard/stephens pick, though I could also see that going to Bader/lil Nog.

I also must say I really like your Stephens/Guillard straddle, but I'm terrified of the Melvin TKO victory. I know Stephens has never been TKO'd but he's never fought anyone even close to as explosive as Melvin on the feet. Perhaps the two toughest guys he's faced on the feet would be Fisher and Stout and neither of those guys puts anyone to sleep. I highly doubt Melvin will sub him, but the possibility of a TKO lingers in my mind. Haven't decided yet. I like the play, but I'm scared of the possibility. Can't bet scared though, I know that.
I thought 5 dimes did offer those type of props...thought they offered more than any other site? Or is it sportsbook or something else? Anyway, I think TJ Grant has the advantage in every area of this fight, he showed that he can get up off his back if he is taken down against Hendricks (he wasn't totally dominated, and won the first round IMO). Also showed good stand-up in tht fight and obviously got KO of the Night against Kevin Burns before that. If I could get Grant at -150 which he was at on Bodog I believe I'd of put at least 3 units on him. But at -175 Im loathe to make a big play so have just put a unit on him and added him to the parlay with Mitrione and Guillard.

Im not ruling out the possibility of Guillard winning by TKO/KO but I dont see it happening. Firstly, now that he is with Jackson MMA I think he may be more conservative and not as aggressive as usual with a set-game plan in mind. Secondly, Stephens has said that he's going to look to push the pace and attack Guillard...if this does happen and Guillard ends up backing up, Im not sure that Guillard is an amazingly powerful counter puncher. Thirdly, Stephens is just a tough dude and from listening to interviews and from his video blogs he is massively hyped up for this fight and is talking a big game...how he is going to break Guillard down and destroy him mentally. Nonetheless, after going back and forth, I decided to add Guillard to a parlay with Mitrione and Grant as a semi-backup in case he does end up TKO/KOing Stephens. With Mitrione even though Im pretty confident he'll get the win, I don't see value in a single bet on him at paddypower's -175 but feel he's worth adding to a parlay.

Bader/Lil Nog could well end up being fight of the Night if Bader decides to stand with Nog and trade, and cant rule out Lytle/Serra being FOTN if they do throw-down, plus Lytle is the hometown hero and Serra is a company favourite so wouldnt be surprised if they got FOTN even if other fights wer as good or slightly better.
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#199

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Also added:

0.5 units on Dunham by decision at +137.5 to win 0.688 units (plus stake);

If Sherk hadn't been off for so long I probably wouldn't make this play, however ring-rust is a real thing and even with a cardio-beast like Sherk I think the 16 month lay-off will still have an impact. Add the fact that Dunham has the reach advantage against Sherk's T-Rex arms, has solid wrestling and a black belt BJJ I just dont see Sherk winning this fight, thought may well take Dunham to a split decision.

0.5 units on Bader by decision at +175 to win 0.875 units (plus stake).

I expect a Bader TKO/KO or decision win in this fight. Im hoping however that Nog still has the chin that Big Nog used to have so will be able take some shots and survive. Also hoping that Bader takes Nog down and scores point through take-downs and control. If he does take Nog down I think he will be conservative and dare I say it utilise a 'lay n pray' approach in order to show control but minimise the risk of a submission (smother tactics).
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#201

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Quote Originally Posted by lasker View Post
You found Dunham by decision at +137.5, or did you mean -137.5? At 5dimes it was -137 yesterday, and today it's -114. Bader by decision is just at +122 on 5dimes. What book are you using, paddypower?
Yee plus odds on paddypower, Dunham by dec is still 11/8 and Bader by dec is 7/4....good to know that they're better than 5dimes are offering because I thought paddypower had tightened up on ther props for this event and was worried that I wasnt gettin value!
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#203

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And another play:

Straddle: 1 unit on CB Dolloway by decision at +175, & 0.225 units on Doerkson by sub at +450;

Parlay (2 from 3 folds): 0.3 units on Kong Watson, Miyata, & Grove to win 1.27 units (plus stake);

Parlay (2 from 3 folds): 0.3 units on Aurelio, Mayhem Miller, & McCorkle to win 1.68 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Lytle/Serra being Fight of the Night at +400 to win 0.4 units (plus stake).
Last edited by Vaughany; 09-23-10 at 12:19 PM.
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#205

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Quote Originally Posted by Fiasco01 View Post
So far the only plays I've locked in are

1u on Serra at +115
1u on Sherk by Dec +378
2.2 u on Mir at -220

I think I might put a small wager on Stephens/Melvin for FOTN
Im pulling for Serra as well but not confident enough to make a single play on him when Lytle is in his home town with the hunger to make up for their first fight. Hope I dont regret not having Sherk in a play as well.

One more play:

0.075 units on Doerkson by TKO/KO at +1600 to win 1.2 units (plus stake).
Last edited by Vaughany; 09-24-10 at 05:06 PM.
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#207

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Quote Originally Posted by Eccocide View Post
GL tomorrow man. We are on a couple of the same plays. Wish I could get Serra/Lytle to a decision at that price! -175 on 5 dimes lol. And i think you mean +1600 on the Doerksen TKO prop....unless Paddypower is smoking some crazy shit! lol.
haha so I did...got a bit carried away with the zeros! Yee looks like we're both relying on decisions tomorrow and Doerkson submission. Think you're on for a winner with the Mitrione/Beltran starts round 3, I was tempted to bet on it going to decision but paddypower released the props for that fight after Id blown my budget! Also pretty sure Grant will pull of the win and I think your Mir/Cro-Cop bet is looking good as I'm predicting it will end in round 2 (hopefully a Mir submission!). Wish paddypower would offer those type of bets. GL bro
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#209

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Quote Originally Posted by spargament View Post
Doerkson has no shot in this match imho it was booked strictly to boost CB's profile (granted if he manages to bungle this up his days in the UFC are near numbered) so I love Dolloway for parlays....Grant is gonna dominate...those are the two strongest plays besides Mir and Dunham on the card..
I'm not sure it was booked to boost CB's profile...he not exactly a company favourite who can be a marketable star! Im sure many said similar things before the Lawlor fight. Nontheless, I'm expecting a Dolloway Unaminous decision win, just hoping Doerkson can pull off a sub.
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