Vaughany's MMA Picks...

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 22 PLAYS:

Straddle 1: 2 units on Palhares at +200 to win 4 units (plus stake); and 1.15 units on Marquardt by decision at +175 to win 2 units (plus stake)

Straddle 2: 2 units on Gleison Tibau at +137.5 to win 2.75 units (plus stake); and 2.5 units on Jim Miller by decision at +200 to win 5 units (plus stake)

Straddle 3: 1.7 units on Charles Oliveira by submission at +550 to win 9.35 units (plus stake); and 1 unit on Efrain Escudero by decision at +275 to win 2.75 units (plus stake)

Straddle 4: 1.5 units on Ross Pearson by TKO/KO at +300 to win 4.5 units (plus stake); and 0.9 units on Ross Pearson to win by decision at +175 to win 1.575 units.

Best case scenario for me would be Palhares winning, J.Miller winning by decision, Oliveira submission win, and Pearson winning by TKO/KO.

Originally Posted by snake11eyes

I think Taylor's wrestling will be to much for Watson to handle, but at -300 no way I'm playing him.

Yes this is the most probable outcome but at +200 I think that is great value as I was expecting Watson to be at at +150 range.

How the hell did you get Pearson by TKO/KO at 3 to 1? 5dimes doesn't have that prop out yet, but I assume it will be +150 at most. Miller is fairly chiney for a LW and is outmatched standing big time without wrestling ability

I feel like there's value in betting against The Suck, David Heath, tonight. Anytime you get underdog odds for his opponent, worthwhile

Originally Posted by koscheckbaby

How the hell did you get Pearson by TKO/KO at 3 to 1? 5dimes doesn't have that prop out yet, but I assume it will be +150 at most. Miller is fairly chiney for a LW and is outmatched standing big time without wrestling ability

I feel like there's value in betting against The Suck, David Heath, tonight. Anytime you get underdog odds for his opponent, worthwhile

Paddypower bro! Still +300 at moment, Oliveira by sub has gone from 11/2 to 9/2 tho.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Paddypower bro! Still +300 at moment, Oliveira by sub has gone from 11/2 to 9/2 tho.

Thats crazy 5d and Sportbet have it at+109.

Im on tom watson and dwayne lewis.

Straddles look good, only straddle that worries me is the Efrain one, I could possibly see him overwhelming Olivera on the feet, could end by tko for Efrain

Originally Posted by illmatick

Straddles look good, only straddle that worries me is the Efrain one, I could possibly see him overwhelming Olivera on the feet, could end by tko for Efrain

Yep this is true and the reason why I put less than 2 units on Oliveira by sub even tho ther was great value at +550. My concern is that Efrain may want to keep this standing after what happened in the Dunham fight and after seeing how easily Oliveira subbed Elkins...the problem with this happening is a) like u said Efrain could end up TKO'ing Oliveira which would screw the straddle or b) for all we know Oliveira might be more elusive and may utilise jabs and leg kicks on the outside (he has strong leg kicks and he wont mind being taken down if Escudero catches a kick as he'll be full of confidence from his back after the Elkins win) and may end up winning a decision himself which would also screw the straddle! However, that KO of Cole Miller was the first TKO/KO of his career and IMO Cole Miller has terrible stand up, especially defensively, while Oliveira has never lost by TKO/KO or in any other way! In the Edu Pachu fight - his toughest test yet, he showed that he can take some heavy shots.

Additional parlays:

Trebles from 4: 0.4 units on Mckee, Ford, Klitschko by decision, TJ Grant to win 1.765 units (plus stake);

Fourfolds from 5: 0.3 units on Jardine, Saffiedine, J. Taylor, Shields, Mir to win 1.295 (plus stake).

bol sir

The thing about Efrain keeping it standing is that Oliveira will be one of the few MMA fighters to pull guard if he can't get it to the ground. Common sense says that the wrestler wins by decision via lay-n-pray, or the BJJ guy subs him. IMO this fight WILL hit the mat. We know Oliveira will be busy, the question is whether or not Efrain will be. Now that he's 4 lbs. over, I'm like your strategy more Vaughany. If he gasses, he will go to his bread and butter and wrestle without causing any damage.

Joined you on both the Oliveira/Escudero and Pearson TKO/Pearson decision straddles. Added Palhares by TKO/KO at +2075. Total long shot, but he's heavy handed. I expect to lose that one, but if I win it.... hell yeah. Good luck!

Originally Posted by Shagdogy

Joined you on both the Oliveira/Escudero and Pearson TKO/Pearson decision straddles. Added Palhares by TKO/KO at +2075. Total long shot, but he's heavy handed. I expect to lose that one, but if I win it.... hell yeah. Good luck!

Nice one, yee you never know, Palhares might catch him and TKO him, definite value at +2000 range!

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Nice one, yee you never know, Palhares might catch him and TKO him, definite value at +2000 range!

Not sure why ppl see value in this play. Palhares has 1 TKO in his career and it was because his opponent was injured and couldnt continue and Marquardt has been TKOed once by Anderson Silva....Palhares has some power but its not flash KO power and Marquardt has a solid chin. Sure anything can happen but I just can't see it. Now that I say that it will prolly happen .

The thing about that Palhares by TKO/KO wager is Palhares doesn't even try strikes or ground and pound. I can see why the odds are that high