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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#91

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Thanks Vaughany for the write up. Like I said I only saw the fight once a long time ago. I will have to watch it again, Mir could have definitely influenced me with his insight as I see him as a knowledgeable announcer. Dont get me wrong I like Varner as a fighter and think he has a great skill set, but he seems to complain in his fights too much. Also in his last fight Shalorus really put it to him. Varner for sure won the fight even though they called it a draw, but he lost that war. You obviously watch a lot of fights and know what you're talking about, but until I see that fight again Varner -200 seems a little steep for me.
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#92

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Quote Originally Posted by snake11eyes View Post
Thanks Vaughany for the write up. Like I said I only saw the fight once a long time ago. I will have to watch it again, Mir could have definitely influenced me with his insight as I see him as a knowledgeable announcer. Dont get me wrong I like Varner as a fighter and think he has a great skill set, but he seems to complain in his fights too much. Also in his last fight Shalorus really put it to him. Varner for sure won the fight even though they called it a draw, but he lost that war. You obviously watch a lot of fights and know what you're talking about, but until I see that fight again Varner -200 seems a little steep for me.
ha ye Varner is a whining bitch at times! Shalorus landed a lot of heavy leg kicks on Varner, but im sure this wont happen as much in the Cerrone fight as Varner wont hesitate taking Cerrone down everytime his throws a kick. Shalorus is arguably a superior wrestler to Varner so Varner probably didnt think it was worth trying to counter his kicks with takedowns as he'd probly get stuffed and waste a lot of energy. But yee Varner should of been avoided the victory...he also showed a lot of heart by continuing after gettin booted in the nuts numerous times throughout tht fight...only adds the argument that he didnt bitch out of the Cerrone fight and that he was actually hurt! You are spot on with the Varner at -200 being a little steep, even though Im confident Varner will win, I would of liked and expected it to be more at -175. May just end up putting Varner in a double with Aldo or Hominick.
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#93

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With UFC 120 in mind (which I'll be going to), thought Id find out how many fights between English and non-English fighters have gone to decision, and more importantly how many times the English fighter has actually won that decision. I think the dodgy Bisping win back at UFC 75 over Hamill has left a legacy of sorts wer people always think that the English man will always have the home advantage when it goes to the judges scorecard. Well, as you can see below, every fight in England that has gone to decision since UFC 75 (between an English fighter and foreign fighter) has gone to decision, with the Home fighter winning each one. What does this suggest? Id argue that in everyone of those fights the English fighter deserved the win and that there weren't any dodgy decisions from judges (obviously the Bisping Hamill one was but im talking about post UFC 75, and some may argue that Hardy didnt deserve the split-win against Gono), therefore it would be amiss to say that English fighters are favoured by judges. However, what this pattern may suggest is that English fighters raise their game when at home, that they battle it out to the end ensuring that if the fight does go to decision that they've done enough to get the nod. Im very confident that the Bisping/Akiyama fight will go the distance and am also pretty confident that Bisping will get the win (this will be my biggest bet of the night). Also thinking Hardy Condit will be a 3 round war with Hardy coming out on top by split decision.

UFC 105 - 1 out of 1 - Hardy beat Swick by decision
UFC 95 - 1 out of 1 - Kelly beat Mandaloniz by decision
UFC 89 - 3 out of 3 decisions Bisping (DEC), Etim (DEC) and Hardy (Split dec)
UFC 85 - 1 out of 1 - Taylor beat Laudin by decision
UFC 75 - 1/2 decisions - Bisping over Hamill by split decision and Etim lost to Tibau by unanimous decision
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#94

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It could easily happen, but if Hardy wins I think there's a big enough chance it could end by TKO. Hardy packs some serious power, and Condit has been a bit too hittable in his recent fights.

Of course, Condit's tough as nails and seems to fight best when in survival mode. I would agree that Condit finishing Hardy seems highly unlikely. Since you like straddles, you might also consider Hardy straight up and Condit by decision, depending on the lines.
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#95

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Quote Originally Posted by lasker View Post
It could easily happen, but if Hardy wins I think there's a big enough chance it could end by TKO. Hardy packs some serious power, and Condit has been a bit too hittable in his recent fights.

Of course, Condit's tough as nails and seems to fight best when in survival mode. I would agree that Condit finishing Hardy seems highly unlikely. Since you like straddles, you might also consider Hardy straight up and Condit by decision, depending on the lines.
Yee, Hardy defo has KO power, but I do think its rather exaggerated. Markham is the only fighter he's actually KO'd in the UFC, and Markham was not in good shape goin in to tht fight (probably shouldnt of fought) and he got TKO'd by the pitter-patter strikes of Nate Diaz! I may well go for the straddle like you say tho. Would need Condit by decision at least +300 to make it worthwhile tho as Hardy is at 4/7 to win on paddypower.

Like Kongo to beat Browne as well.
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#96

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WEC 50 play:

2 units on Shane Roller at -175.

I see his combination of experience, grappling and power being too much for the young but highly talented Pettis. Not sure if I'd of taken Roller at -200 but I'll take -175. I'm a massive fan of Pettis and can see him being champion one day. One of my best plays ever was puttin 2.5 units on him to beat Castillo at +125 and made money on him against Karalexis as well. But I just don't think he is ready yet for somebody like Roller. Will probably add Pettis to a parlay as some sort of back-up option in case he does manage to pull off the win! Here is some footage of the Roller vs Gomi exhibition grappling match that took place at a FanExpo and ended with Roller submitting Gomi comfortably...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJRV19qKxKY
Last edited by Vaughany; 08-10-10 at 02:07 PM.
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#98

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Not long till WEC 50 starts! My predictions are: Cruz, Roller, Micklewright, Jorgensen, Lamas, Paixao, Polish dude, Poirier, Vazquez, Money Mende$.

With regard to actual bets I've ended up not making as many plays as I originally planned due to a combination of poor value on some fights (Mendes at -400 for instance), and due to Paddypower not releasing Jorgensen vs Pickett, Bartimus vs Micklewright, and Castillo vs Poirier. Here are my few plays nonetheless:

2.5 units on Shane Roller to win 1.4 units (plus stake)

1 unit on Lamas to win 0.7 units (plus stake)

1 unit on Vazquez to win 0.5 units (plus stake)

Parlay: 0.5 units on Fredson Paixao, Kingo Mo, & Hornbuckle to win 0.6 units (plus stake).
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#101

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Not long till WEC 50 starts! My predictions are: Cruz, Roller, Micklewright, Jorgensen, Lamas, Paixao, Polish dude, Poirier, Vazquez, Money Mende$.

With regard to actual bets I've ended up not making as many plays as I originally planned due to a combination of poor value on some fights (Mendes at -400 for instance), and due to Paddypower not releasing Jorgensen vs Pickett, Bartimus vs Micklewright, and Castillo vs Poirier. Here are my few plays nonetheless:

2.5 units on Shane Roller to win 1.4 units (plus stake)

1 unit on Lamas to win 0.7 units (plus stake)

1 unit on Vazquez to win 0.5 units (plus stake)

Parlay: 0.5 units on Fredson Paixao, Kingo Mo, & Hornbuckle to win 0.6 units (plus stake).
Another bad night due to Roller's meltdown Down 1.5 units but Paixao won so still have the parlay with King Mo and Hornbuckle (wouldn't be surprised if Blackburn beats Hornbuckle tho!).

Have added:

1 unit on Taylor to win 0.7 units (plus stake)

0.5 units on Frausto, Konrad & Grabowski to win 0.5 units (plus stake)

0.1 units on Barrett & King Mo to win 0.6 units (plus stake).
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