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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#11013

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Pending plays:


312313245-1

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1:36pm 8-Jul-13 6:15pm 27-Jul-13 Mixed Martial Arts
Money Line
Jake Ellenberger vs Rory MacDonald for Match. -200 100.00 50.00 Pending
312314960-1

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2:19pm 8-Jul-13 3:45pm 27-Jul-13 Mixed Martial Arts
Money Line
Melvin Guillard vs Mac Danzig for Match. +100 100.00 100.00 Pending
2-0 night for a few squid
#11018

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Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
LOL. i was about to break even before DJ wins in round 5 cashes. Am i the only one or have the last events been much easier to predict than earlier this year? I feel like all the favourites wins like they should.
I thought he might be able to submit him in the later rounds but I didn't bet it. Wish I had. Odds were really good. I've been trying to lay off props lately though.
#11020

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Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
The more you bet, the more you loose for most people. I have had success with betting 2-3 plays last weekends. I feel that its better to go heavy on a couple of plays youre convinced gonna come through rather than betting many that should in theory win. Same with props for me, less is more.
Value is value, bro. You're limiting yourself in my opinion.
#11021

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Ill probably do. But there is a fine line somewhere between getting all the value, and winning. Yesterday i should have betted more than only 3 big plays. On the other hand, with this conservative strategy of mine, i have won almost 4000 last three events. Its difficult to abandon such a successful strategy.
#11022

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Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
Ill probably do. But there is a fine line somewhere between getting all the value, and winning. Yesterday i should have betted more than only 3 big plays. On the other hand, with this conservative strategy of mine, i have won almost 4000 last three events. Its difficult to abandon such a successful strategy.
I don't agree with you there. Gambling is a long-term game for me, and in the long-term, betting all +EV lines will produce a greater profit. Only betting lines you feel more confident in is a good strategy if you wish to keep your variance down, however.
#11023

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Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
I don't agree with you there. Gambling is a long-term game for me, and in the long-term, betting all +EV lines will produce a greater profit. Only betting lines you feel more confident in is a good strategy if you wish to keep your variance down, however.
Variance is hard to stomach when you start betting a lot of money. I have to say I agree with BJPEnn on this one.
#11025

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Quote Originally Posted by mmaed View Post
Variance is hard to stomach when you start betting a lot of money. I have to say I agree with BJPEnn on this one.
Not for me. I made a really big bet on DJ by decision at -700 last night, three minutes into round five. My wager was pretty obviously +EV I think, and it was some insane variance, but it didn't even phase me.

No use tilting over spilt milk.