Originally Posted by
Vaughany
Just a smallish play on Camozzi at +140 tonight.
Also got small on Fitch by Decision and have Big Nog at -220 but will probably hedge these in some way.
My ramblings on Banha/Camozzi in no sort of proper order/format...
Cane’s first fight in a year and coming off surgery and making first cut to 185lbs. I can’t imagine Cane walked around more than 210, 215 perhaps max when out of shape so his cut to 205 was probably easy. Doesn’t mean that the cut to 185 will be comfortable though (although he clearly looked in great condition at the weigh-in and he has said that he feels great at this weight so far). We all know that Cane has issues with getting hit, his striking offence is a lot better than his defence (like many fighters in MMA). I don’t necessarily believe he has a glass chin like some may argue, I think it’s more of a combination of getting hit a lot and not having a great chin as such. I believe some of it may be psychological as well, he tends to panic and wilt when under pressure. In the Nedkov fight he got hit and ran away and almost tried to jump out of the cage before Nedkov landed a barrage of follow up punches that dropped him and seemed to re-wake him up! We’ve seen that Cane is equally susceptible to heavy-handed brawlers (like Nedkov) and also more technical strikers like Diabate and to certain extent Lil Nog. Camozzi has the combination IMO of being technical and a brawler (kind of like a Brad Pickett style who is a technical brawler and likes to turn it in to a dog-fight).
What we know about Camozzi is that in terms of toughness and grit he is complete opposite to Cane. I may be wrong but I don’t think Camozzi has ever been dropped from a strike? Dude got his jaw broke against O’Donnell to get in to TUF house and still fought on and won third round. His ability to take punishment and keep on pushing forward is on a whole different level and for me these may outweigh the technical advantages that Banha certainly has.
If Camozzi can keep pushing forward and put Banha on back foot he should have great success in this fight. Banha’s a lot more dangerous when moving forward, and seems a bit lost when backing up…clearly not as comfortable counter-striking. Aside from his durability, Camozzi should have a considerable cardio advantage and be the one pushing the pace and landing more combinations in latter part of the fight. We all saw how he turned it on against Catone late on in the fight. He clearly needs to take the fight to Cane as it won’t be easy to win a decision in Brazil when the crowd are constantly cheering every punch and kick that Banha throws.
The perceived “home-advantage” may not be as a big a factor as many may think IMO. Banha after all was the only Brazilian to lose against a non-Brazilian on the 134 card after Nedkov took him out. Furthermore, Camozzi has experience in being the bad guy in opposition’s back yard. Aside from the last fight against Catone where he fought in New Jersey, he also fought Jacoby in Chicago (Jacoby an Illinois native), Villasenor in New Mexico, and Noke in Australia, so although these places won’t be as fiery as Brazil, he still has more experience than most fighters in these kind of situations. It seems the UFC know that they can count on Chris to not bottle it in his opponent’s back yard and will always bring the fight.
I would guess that there are two ways Camozzi can go with regards to strategy:-
a) Push forward from the start and not give Banha any time to get himself in to the fight or give Banha a chance to push forward
or:
b) Circle a lot and clinch against cage and try and wear Banha out with view of exploiting lay-off and weight cut by pouring it on in the third round (which Camozzi tends to do as shown in Jacoby and Catone fights)
I believe the former strategy is more likely and would also be the best option based on what we’ve seen from Banha in past. Camozzi spoke about wanting to get off to a fast start in an interview I read earlier in the week as he tends to not wake up until later part of fights. This suggests to me that he does indeed intend to pressuring Banha from the start.
At +140 I think Camozzi is worth a small play, even though Cane has all the ability to make light-work of a guy like Camozzi who doesn't particularly excel at anything but is just tough and hard-working, and despite the fact that I do find it hard imagining Banha losing a second fight in front of his home crowd after the Nedkov disaster!
