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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#7547

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Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
Maybe he's learning that once your bankroll reaches a certain size, its more profitable to focus on other sports.
That doesn't make sense, soccer is one of the least profitable sports to bet on, whereas MMA is the most (for me, anyway.)
#7548

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Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
That doesn't make sense, soccer is one of the least profitable sports to bet on, whereas MMA is the most (for me, anyway.)
What kind of analysis have you done to determine that soccer is one of the least profitable sports to bet on?

Being that there are more matches, with lots of hometown money, plenty of arbable lines available (probably 90% of arbable lines on any given day are soccer), yet still decent limit sizes indicates that soccer should be one of the most profitable sports to bet on.

If you can beat other major sports, your ROI may not be what you can achieve in MMA, but effectively unlimited limits blows is out of the water.
#7549

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Atalanta -1 and Feyenoord -1 tonight. Then need Chelsea win, Man City win, and PSG win tomorrow
ha Sorry Gabriel but bet limits aren't as problematic for me with other sports such as soccer and I'm not going to bet on MMA just for the sake of it. The fact my day of soccer betting has looked like this so far will keep me focused on that for time being...

Bets 18th August 2012.jpg

The £1205.67 from the Over 3.5 in QPR/Swansea game wasn't my actual profit from that game as I lost £600 betting on QPR PK.

Pending bets (Man City).jpg
#7550

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Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
What kind of analysis have you done to determine that soccer is one of the least profitable sports to bet on?

Being that there are more matches, with lots of hometown money, plenty of arbable lines available (probably 90% of arbable lines on any given day are soccer), yet still decent limit sizes indicates that soccer should be one of the most profitable sports to bet on.

If you can beat other major sports, your ROI may not be what you can achieve in MMA, but effectively unlimited limits blows is out of the water.
I don't know anyone who wins by betting soccer regularly. I know I've lost a lot on it... Big favorites get upset more often than in any other sport... and not exactly upset, 'cos a lot of the times they just Draw.
#7551

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Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
I don't know anyone who wins by betting soccer regularly. I know I've lost a lot on it... Big favorites get upset more often than in any other sport... and not exactly upset, 'cos a lot of the times they just Draw.

I don't know anyone who voted for George W Bush, my informal poll gave Kerry a 100% chance of victory.

Big favorites being upset isn't an argument for the sport being unbeatable; but maybe a strategy of parlaying all large favorites wouldn't be ideal in such a scenario.
#7552

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
ha Sorry Gabriel but bet limits aren't as problematic for me with other sports such as soccer and I'm not going to bet on MMA just for the sake of it. The fact my day of soccer betting has looked like this so far will keep me focused on that for time being...

Bets 18th August 2012.jpg


The £1205.67 from the Over 3.5 in QPR/Swansea game wasn't my actual profit from that game as I lost £600 betting on QPR PK.

Pending bets (Man City).jpg
It won't be just for the sake of it if you put as much thought into it as you did before. You've been betting MMA, but you still haven't had a solid pick in a really long time.
#7553

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Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
I don't know anyone who voted for George W Bush, my informal poll gave Kerry a 100% chance of victory.

Big favorites being upset isn't an argument for the sport being unbeatable; but maybe a strategy of parlaying all large favorites wouldn't be ideal in such a scenario.
If you pick 10 NFL games, 10 NBA games, 10 MLB games, 10 NHL games, 10 UFC fights, 10 tennis match-ups, and 10 soccer games, chances are very likely your highest losing % will be on the soccer games. They are just harder to win on. You don't even know which players are going to be playing. It is a tough sport to cap. Unlike the other sports, you're not betting on winning or losing, you're also betting against it being a draw. Odds of winning are less right there alone.
#7555

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Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
If you pick 10 NFL games, 10 NBA games, 10 MLB games, 10 NHL games, 10 UFC fights, 10 tennis match-ups, and 10 soccer games, chances are very likely your highest losing % will be on the soccer games. They are just harder to win on. You don't even know which players are going to be playing. It is a tough sport to cap. Unlike the other sports, you're not betting on winning or losing, you're also betting against it being a draw. Odds of winning are less right there alone.
Even if this statement was true (which its not), it has zero bearing on which sport is the most profitable to bet on.
#7560

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Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
If you pick 10 NFL games, 10 NBA games, 10 MLB games, 10 NHL games, 10 UFC fights, 10 tennis match-ups, and 10 soccer games, chances are very likely your highest losing % will be on the soccer games. They are just harder to win on. You don't even know which players are going to be playing. It is a tough sport to cap. Unlike the other sports, you're not betting on winning or losing, you're also betting against it being a draw. Odds of winning are less right there alone.
You dont know which players are going to be playing?! Team-lineups are usually announced at least an hour before games so that is nonsense. You're also betting against it being a draw? You realise there are other options like "draw no bet" (PK) so you get your money back if it is a draw?