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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#7130

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Quote Originally Posted by Digo View Post
o0 I'm surprised to see you betting on games of the Brazilian championship Vaugh. Nice hits.
Yeah, I've had a lot of success with Brazilian 1st and 2nd league recently (It's European leagues that have let me down!). Was really surprised to find that I could get Ath Mineiro draw-no bet at plus odds away at Figuerense the other week. They ended up coming from behind to win 4-3 thanks to a late Guilherme goal. And then I got Criciuma away at ASA or some other team in bottom 5 of league B at plus odds and again they scored a last minute winner. Then I had Sao Paolo PK (they won comfortably against Figuerense) and Fluminense PK and again Fred scored a last minute penalty! So I've been fortunate to have a lot of late goals in my favour! I do think the home advantage gets slightly over-rated when setting the odds for Brazilian games.
#7131

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Quote Originally Posted by TheCalculator View Post
I certainly don't see VALUE at -300. Struve has been fighting smarter so he MIGHT NOT get KOed. He probably won't be able to sub Miocic due to his wrestling. Could easily see this going the distance.
I agree here. Something clicks when these fighters have to go 5 rounds. Everyone ridiculed me for even mentioning Franklin by dec in his 5 round bout last month. Fighters knowing that they need the gas tank to make it 5 rounds dont go for the kill imo.

Look at Hendo/Rua. During the 4th and 5th round Rua should have been able to stop the fight but didn;t have the power to do so. 5 round fights are tricky dist wagers. These types of fights I actually see a lot more value in fight will see the start of rd 2. rather then itd.

Just my thoughts.

BOL
#7132

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Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
I agree here. Something clicks when these fighters have to go 5 rounds. Everyone ridiculed me for even mentioning Franklin by dec in his 5 round bout last month. Fighters knowing that they need the gas tank to make it 5 rounds dont go for the kill imo.

Look at Hendo/Rua. During the 4th and 5th round Rua should have been able to stop the fight but didn;t have the power to do so. 5 round fights are tricky dist wagers. These types of fights I actually see a lot more value in fight will see the start of rd 2. rather then itd.

Just my thoughts.

BOL
Agree with this. Getting Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 at -210 or something like that was ridiculous! I believe the last 5 rounder to end in round 1 was Aldo vs Mendes back in January. There have been quite a lot that have ended in Round 2 though.
#7133

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Agree with this. Getting Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 at -210 or something like that was ridiculous! I believe the last 5 rounder to end in round 1 was Aldo vs Mendes back in January. There have been quite a lot that have ended in Round 2 though.
Especially recently, Weidman/Munoz, Anderson/Sonnen, Kampmann/Ellenberger, JDS/Mir, and Diaz/Miller - that's 5 out of last 8 five-round fights ending in second round
#7134

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Agree with this. Getting Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 at -210 or something like that was ridiculous! I believe the last 5 rounder to end in round 1 was Aldo vs Mendes back in January. There have been quite a lot that have ended in Round 2 though.
Yeah, and that was stopped with like a second left!


You guys may be on to something in regards to 5 round fights. It was more of an instinctive thought on the fact that Struve/Miocic are finishers/are finished (more on Struve's part)
#7136

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V, any thoughts regarding Olympic soccer/football? You attending any matches? Heard that there were lots of tickets still left.

Brazil looks pretty scary with Neymar and Hulk up front and Silva patrolling the back but +160ish for them to win is a bit too low of a payout when you got squads like Spain and Uruguay lurking. Interested in hearing what you think.
#7137

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Quote Originally Posted by The Fobfather View Post
V, any thoughts regarding Olympic soccer/football? You attending any matches? Heard that there were lots of tickets still left.

Brazil looks pretty scary with Neymar and Hulk up front and Silva patrolling the back but +160ish for them to win is a bit too low of a payout when you got squads like Spain and Uruguay lurking. Interested in hearing what you think.
Yeah Brazil should take it...Im expecting Brazil vs Spain or Uruguay in final. I've got a play on Brazil winning whole thing at +225. I also like Uruguay to win the group and will probably do draw no bet play on them against England.
#7138

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Yeah Brazil should take it...Im expecting Brazil vs Spain or Uruguay in final. I've got a play on Brazil winning whole thing at +225. I also like Uruguay to win the group and will probably do draw no bet play on them against England.
Looks good. Nice odds on Brazil to take it all. Trying to figure out my plays. So far I only have Korea to advance from their group at +180. Their defense isn't the best, but they have one of the more underrated midfields in the tourney, with Ki SY from Celtic, Koo JC from Augsburg, and Kim BK, with the Arsenal failure Park up top.
#7139

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Quote Originally Posted by The Fobfather View Post
Looks good. Nice odds on Brazil to take it all. Trying to figure out my plays. So far I only have Korea to advance from their group at +180. Their defense isn't the best, but they have one of the more underrated midfields in the tourney, with Ki SY from Celtic, Koo JC from Augsburg, and Kim BK, with the Arsenal failure Park up top.
YEah tht could be a good shout, Mexico or Switzerland could easily slip up
#7140

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
YEah tht could be a good shout, Mexico or Switzerland could easily slip up
Sorry for hijacking your thread. Last question re: olympic football.

On 5Dimes, Switzerland is listed as the favorite to win the group over Mexico. Found that surprising. Caught the Switzerland match vs. Senegal and they didn't look like the strongest squad. Any insight on them?