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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#6752

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Got a good chunk on West Ham beating Boreham Wood in a Friendly taking place tonight...got West Ham straight up at -400 in a double with Shogun at -300 and also in a double at -500 with Jon Jones. THen got them asian handicap -1.5, 2 at -132 and Over 3.5 goals at Evens. Also got Shakhtar Donetsk as last leg of a couple parlays (already leading 1 nil after ten minutes).
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#6753

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UFC on Fuel TV 4 play:


26 units on Damacio Page -130 to win 20 units.


Can't resist a play on the "Angel of Death" in this one. I capped it closer to what Kalikas released him at (-165). I believe Joey Odessa released him at -225 on sportsbook. People are high on Bruce LeRoy due to his clear improvements since TUF and since moving down a weight division, Page's line might even get better than -130. There is a clear difference in level of competition that these two guys have faced. Yes, Damacio has loss 3 on the bounce and 4 out of his last 6 but those losses have been against top 5 guys in the weight-class in Bowles, Mighty Mouse, and Pickett, while he has beaten another solid BW in Scott Jorgensen and also Marcos Galvao who is one of the best 135ers in Bellator now. The risk with betting against Caceres is that he is a high volume striker and he also has the ability to submit if he gets taken down, which is even more of a risk with a guy like Page who has shown questionable sub defence before. However, a couple of the sub losses such as most recent one to Pickett and the Bowles rematch were after he got dropped from punches - and as Nunya rightly pointed out in the thread, Bruce LeRoy isnt as powerful a striker as likes of Pickett or Bowles. Caceres also appears to prefer to attack off his back with triangles and armbars rather than go for guillotines during a takedown attempt (which appear to be Page's kryponite). This isn't to say that Caceres cant or wont catch him in a guillotine but I think it's safe to say it's not as much as a threat compared to likes of Bowles, Faber, Jorgensen's of the division. Page himself isn't just a hard-hitting brawler, he does have a reasonably good offensive grappling game as well. He certainly has the ability to take Caceres down if he wants to and will threaten with GnP and chokes. Aside from the submission threat of Bruce LeRoy, as mentioned above, there is also the risk of Caceres getting a decision by picking Page apart just by throwing higher volume and more variety of strikes like he did against Figueroa (Caceres would of clearly won that 29-28 if not for the nut shots). Page has thought a rangy striker (for BW standards) before in Campuzano who was 5ft10 with 70" reach and had no issues getting inside and hurting Campuzano then taking him down and choking him out. Page is also not as much as a plodder as Figueroa and as already mentioned will mix in take-downs and sub attempts unlike Figueroa is basically just a Muay Thai striker with reasonably solid submission defence, so I don't think it's necessarily a given that Caceres will win the decision if it does go the distance. Overall, Im relying on Caceres not having the power to hurt Page standing and Page having enough experience to not get subbed. This may well be one of those fights were I look back after and think it was a terrible play, so it's risky but I think worth a pop at -130.
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#6757

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
UFC on Fuel TV 4 play:


26 units on Damacio Page -130 to win 20 units.


Can't resist a play on the "Angel of Death" in this one. I capped it closer to what Kalikas released him at (-165). I believe Joey Odessa released him at -225 on sportsbook. People are high on Bruce LeRoy due to his clear improvements since TUF and since moving down a weight division, Page's line might even get better than -130. There is a clear difference in level of competition that these two guys have faced. Yes, Damacio has loss 3 on the bounce and 4 out of his last 6 but those losses have been against top 5 guys in the weight-class in Bowles, Mighty Mouse, and Pickett, while he has beaten another solid BW in Scott Jorgensen and also Marcos Galvao who is one of the best 135ers in Bellator now. The risk with betting against Caceres is that he is a high volume striker and he also has the ability to submit if he gets taken down, which is even more of a risk with a guy like Page who has shown questionable sub defence before. However, a couple of the sub losses such as most recent one to Pickett and the Bowles rematch were after he got dropped from punches - and as Nunya rightly pointed out in the thread, Bruce LeRoy isnt as powerful a striker as likes of Pickett or Bowles. Caceres also appears to prefer to attack off his back with triangles and armbars rather than go for guillotines during a takedown attempt (which appear to be Page's kryponite). This isn't to say that Caceres cant or wont catch him in a guillotine but I think it's safe to say it's not as much as a threat compared to likes of Bowles, Faber, Jorgensen's of the division. Page himself isn't just a hard-hitting brawler, he does have a reasonably good offensive grappling game as well. He certainly has the ability to take Caceres down if he wants to and will threaten with GnP and chokes. Aside from the submission threat of Bruce LeRoy, as mentioned above, there is also the risk of Caceres getting a decision by picking Page apart just by throwing higher volume and more variety of strikes like he did against Figueroa (Caceres would of clearly won that 29-28 if not for the nut shots). Page has thought a rangy striker (for BW standards) before in Campuzano who was 5ft10 with 70" reach and had no issues getting inside and hurting Campuzano then taking him down and choking him out. Page is also not as much as a plodder as Figueroa and as already mentioned will mix in take-downs and sub attempts unlike Figueroa is basically just a Muay Thai striker with reasonably solid submission defence, so I don't think it's necessarily a given that Caceres will win the decision if it does go the distance. Overall, Im relying on Caceres not having the power to hurt Page standing and Page having enough experience to not get subbed. This may well be one of those fights were I look back after and think it was a terrible play, so it's risky but I think worth a pop at -130.

Solid breakdown. I was really surprised to see Page at -130/-140, as I put him at about -180 range. I just can't bring myself to throw more than a sprinkle on Page, even though I auto-fade LeRoy. GL tonight.


Ticket#:71723207
Jul 11 07:40 PM 		INTERNET / -1 Jul 11 10:07 AM MU STRAIGHT BET
[24176] D PAGE -140
(A CACERES vrs D PAGE)
 $70 / $50
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