Your argument is akin to saying, "I wish no one else would pick up the pennies on the ground, because I want to pick them all up and I'm not going to bend over until there's at least 5 of them"
Nash equilibrium. Suboptimally. That's right, motherf*ckers.Originally Posted by NunyaBidness
This is a very stupid argument that I've debunked here before. But we can hit it from a different angle today.
While it would be optimal for large bettors for lines to remain stagnant until limits are raised, it makes no difference to small bettors to allow this. And since other bettors are going to come in and move the line to parity anyway, they would be sacrificing EV for no gain at all.
Because of this you can use game theory to show that the nash equilibrium for all actors regardless of bankroll size is to hit openers. If you do not, you are acting suboptimally, and losing value to both other actors and the books themselves.
This is true. But what argument am I trying to make? That people shouldn't bet openers? All I was saying is that people who bet openers are ******* over "large bettors" so why the fock are you concerned with talking about the line before it comes out because you are only focking over yourselves, not me, lol.This is a very stupid argument that I've debunked here before. But we can hit it from a different angle today.
While it would be optimal for large bettors for lines to remain stagnant until limits are raised, it makes no difference to small bettors to allow this. And since other bettors are going to come in and move the line to parity anyway, they would be sacrificing EV for no gain at all.
Because of this you can use game theory to show that the nash equilibrium for all actors regardless of bankroll size is to hit openers. If you do not, you are acting suboptimally, and losing value to both other actors and the books themselves.
ha In before "Nunya showing his aspergers again" response by Smarterthanu or defacto!
ha wasnt quick enough
But it is not as simple as picking up a penny. What if I don't want to get off my ass and goto ** to transfer money to an illegal operation thereby commiting a federal crime so I can hit an opener for $100.Your argument is akin to saying, "I wish no one else would pick up the pennies on the ground, because I want to pick them all up and I'm not going to bend over until there's at least 5 of them"
What if (for me) it is +EV to just mow my neighbours lawn for the 20$, lol.
You can't put the genie back in the bottle.I would love to just snap the necks of all posters on sbr so that the opener would remain untouched until they raised the limits.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AnalogyBut it is not as simple as picking up a penny. What if I don't want to get off my ass and goto ** to transfer money to an illegal operation thereby commiting a federal crime so I can hit an opener for $100.
But altleast V could have kept the picks to himself until all the lines dropped, fock. By the time they hit 5dimes, forget it. Papaizian -180. My dick deflated.You can't put the genie back in the bottle.
why? What's the 'inside scoop' on pyle right now???Pyle might not make weight
You'd of only got $100 down on 5dimes tho!But altleast V could have kept the picks to himself until all the lines dropped, fock. By the time they hit 5dimes, forget it. Papaizian -180. My dick deflated.
Pyle looks the most confident/cocky I've seen him before a fight judging from the workoutswhy? What's the 'inside scoop' on pyle right now???
Don't have an argument for justifying pyle at -190, I agree its steep. Prob will stay away as a few people here are high on neer, but in the end I just think neer, while looking good in defeat, really hasn't beat anyone of note, everyone that is a top 10-20 guy he fights he loses to for the most part, epsecially guys with better wrestling and top control, aka pyle.Well I can't comment on hecht/pierson because I haven't seen enough of those guys. In what I have seen neither have exhibited much talent, I guess if forced to pick the slight lean goes to hecht but I won't be playing the -165 line.
As far as the pyle fight, I actually can say that I have watched a lot of footage on both guys over the years and then recently watched more tape again for the purpose of capping their friday bout. Initially I was favoring pyle but after re-watching each of both of their last 5 fights, I am seriously questioning why most ppl are big on him. Both men have average striking and I def wouldn't say pyle has a definitive edge on the feet, I'd say it's close to even. (and yes, this is still taking into consideration the fact that pyle has faced tougher opposition). On the ground I will agree pyle has the edge (neers wrestling is weak) but neers jitz game is no joke and is very solid. In light of these observations I'd say a small play on neer by decsion at +500 is justified, or to stay away completely. However, if someone could provide a reasonable argument to justify the -190 line on pyle, I'm always open to opinions with the ability to influence me one way or the other. Please feel free to disagree with me ppl, I actually welcome it because it helps me be secure in my pick. Gabe, don't worry I don't ostracize ppl for politely disagreeing
This is just how I see things at the moment subject to change.
And yea I don't know why I was intersted in hecht, I started looking more into it and I really can't break it down with confidence, therefore no way I would pay -160 on a fight I can't break down. GL and thanks for the feedback man.
I couldn't get ANYTHING down at sportsbook. Salas is a focking evens now. They focking flipped the line and are forcing me to go the other way.You'd of only got $100 down on 5dimes tho!
Dude i can't blame you for doing your thing. And while Nunya is correct in saying that it is the right proposition for everyone to bet openers, because it's either that or nothing.
I'm just saying he books have set it up this way, and it is the most profitable model for them. And it will remain because like Nunya said if "we" don't bet the openers someone else will. Which is a vicious cycle.
Pyle is gonna be gassed out in rd 2.
