Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Originally Posted by MMAbetMASTA

Hey man, don't mean to bug you and I know I asked in teh other thread, but you seemed pretty knowledgeable on jury both this season and the other season... What are your thoughts on the saunders fight??? I know you might not be playing him at that price, but I still think its worth it at -300 ish because he has him beat in every part of the game imo (jury's cardio is a bit of a concern due to all the finishes / lack of decisions but not major)

You talking about Myles "No Heart" Jury?

Originally Posted by MMAbetMASTA

Hey man, don't mean to bug you and I know I asked in teh other thread, but you seemed pretty knowledgeable on jury both this season and the other season... What are your thoughts on the saunders fight??? I know you might not be playing him at that price, but I still think its worth it at -300 ish because he has him beat in every part of the game imo (jury's cardio is a bit of a concern due to all the finishes / lack of decisions but not major)

Should get the win, sub or decision but no way Im playing him at current odds. Jury has all the talent in the world but is still raw and Saunders is a lot more experienced. Fighting in front of an audience in UFC wont faze Saunders while Jury may be nervous as hell...especially with all the hype he has. If Jury doesnt finish in first round Saunders could get stronger as fight progresses. Im not interested in playing any of these big favourites out of the TUF fights. We've seen the big dogs win over and over again this season, I cant count out there being a couple more surprises at the finale

Watching Vick completely dominate and then flat out quit as soon as he got taken down has taught me that there just isn't enuf film out there to be taken these big favorites from tuff. Iaquinta in the final does look like he has some pretty decent heart. How this Chiesa kid keeps winning blows the mind. He just isn't that good but seems to have drawn one nitwit after another.

I think all TUF dogs have the potential to pull out wins but after thinking about this for quite awhile I think the favorites most unlikely of losing are Iaquinta and Lawrence.

Originally Posted by fosho14

I think all TUF dogs have the potential to pull out wins but after thinking about this for quite awhile I think the favorites most unlikely of losing are Iaquinta and Lawrence.

cant bet against Iaquinta cos of the Serra/Longo connection!

Faber student left paralyzed after training incident... The sad news of a young athlete being paralyzed will never be softened by euphemisms or optimistic outlooks. Such is the case with 22-year-old Devin Johnson who was recently paralyzed during training session at Urijah Faber‘s Ultimate Fitness Gym in what sounds like a guillotine attempt during a takedown.Sacramento’s News 10 has the full story:
Devin Johnson, 22, was sparring at the facility, located on the 1700 block of I Street on May 14 when he fell while in a headlock.
When Devin arrived at UC Davis Medical Center he was paralyzed. The impact from the fall dislocated Devin’s spine.
…
“What Mr. Johnson, unfortunately, had was injury between his fourth and fifth spine in his neck,” said Dr. Kee Kim, Chief of Spinal Neurosurgery at UC Davis Medical Center.
Johnson’s spine slipped and caused damage to the spinal cord, causing what’s called facet fracture-dislocation. Kim used a metal implant to stabilize Johnson’s spine. It was his first time treating a patient who suffered a spinal cord injury from MMA.

Thoughts go out to Devin and his family from the entire BJPENN.com staff.


Related:

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Should get the win, sub or decision but no way Im playing him at current odds. Jury has all the talent in the world but is still raw and Saunders is a lot more experienced. Fighting in front of an audience in UFC wont faze Saunders while Jury may be nervous as hell...especially with all the hype he has. If Jury doesnt finish in first round Saunders could get stronger as fight progresses. Im not interested in playing any of these big favourites out of the TUF fights. We've seen the big dogs win over and over again this season, I cant count out there being a couple more surprises at the finale

yea the big stage and experience is scaring me good points, and you're right -300 is def too steep when there are some 'questions' and expectations lingering for jury... And like gabe said I think you can question his heart / determenation when the fight starts to not go his way.. I also agree that saunders has fought the better dudes outside of the show... I still feel its gonna look like domination for jury and in retrospect we'll all say 'yea -300 made sense', but in the end I think I'm gonna stay away, not worth that juice... thanks dude, cheers.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Faber student left paralyzed after training incident... The sad news of a young athlete being paralyzed will never be softened by euphemisms or optimistic outlooks. Such is the case with 22-year-old Devin Johnson who was recently paralyzed during training session at Urijah Faber‘s Ultimate Fitness Gym in what sounds like a guillotine attempt during a takedown.Sacramento’s News 10 has the full story:
Devin Johnson, 22, was sparring at the facility, located on the 1700 block of I Street on May 14 when he fell while in a headlock.
When Devin arrived at UC Davis Medical Center he was paralyzed. The impact from the fall dislocated Devin’s spine.
…
“What Mr. Johnson, unfortunately, had was injury between his fourth and fifth spine in his neck,” said Dr. Kee Kim, Chief of Spinal Neurosurgery at UC Davis Medical Center.
Johnson’s spine slipped and caused damage to the spinal cord, causing what’s called facet fracture-dislocation. Kim used a metal implant to stabilize Johnson’s spine. It was his first time treating a patient who suffered a spinal cord injury from MMA.

Thoughts go out to Devin and his family from the entire BJPENN.com staff.


Related:

wow, how horrible... 22 years old, man... Faber and the camp must be devastated. That's rough, how sad for him and mma.

Hey man one more thing, don't mean to blow up your thread.

What you think about cruishank at -220 SU?? What's your breakdown...?

Only plays so far:


10.053 units on Holloway at -103 to win 9.76 units.

I capped Holloway as slight favourite at -110 to -120 range so had to play him at -103. Not impressed with Schilling, and don't like backing guys who are still working full-time. Schilling will need to be aggressive early and look to rush in and take Holloway down as soon as possible as I dont believe he has the striking to set the take-downs up. Obviously there is a very good chance tht Schilling takes Holloway down at some point and gets the sub and could also take a decision, however Schilling has never been past the first round and is an aggressive type of fighter who wont look to just laynpray or grind his way to a decision so will give up position in search of submissions, so I think he'll either get the early sub or lose by TKO or decision. Holloway has also been at Gracie Technics for past 10 months, as the name suggests a BJJ based gym so has been focusing more on his ground game with Pedro Sauer blackbelt Rylan Lizares and also his buddy Dustin Kimura who is a big prospect with solid ground game, so I don't think it's necessarily a guarantee tht he gets subbed if Schilling does take him down.


Parlay: 6.375 units on JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-900), Not Kampmann Inside the Distance (-447), Machida (-290), & Aldo (-530) to win 7.481 units;

Also have a risk-free play on Oliveira to win 6.6 units.

Small profit for the night. Same old story, should of had more faith in Holloway who I liked to win tht when the fight was first announced, and I really need to learn to not count Kampmann out in any fight!

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Small profit for the night. Same old story, should of had more faith in Holloway who I liked to win tht when the fight was first announced, and I really need to learn to not count Kampmann out in any fight!

Me, too, bro. I'm never betting against Kampmann... unless I'm much more confident in his opponent than I was in Ellenberger.

At least I went all in in Holloway... still had a losing night, though... all because I had to have action on every damn fight... and I went with the TUF trend of betting the dogs, and I paid dearly... the only dog I didn't bet was the only one that was an actual pick of mine... Only reason I didn't bet it is 'cos I made a deal with the man upstairs that if Holloway won, I was done betting for the rest of the night... Had no idea Ellenberger would ruin all my parlays... Instead of being up huge, I'm down kiiinda big. All was riding on Ellenberger... then the AZ Dbacks ruined me, too. Had them in a huge parlay with Holloway and Lawrence.

Originally Posted by gabe

Me, too, bro. I'm never betting against Kampmann... unless I'm much more confident in his opponent than I was in Ellenberger.

At least I went all in in Holloway... still had a losing night, though... all because I had to have action on every damn fight... and I went with the TUF trend of betting the dogs, and I paid dearly... the only dog I didn't bet was the only one that was an actual pick of mine... Only reason I didn't bet it is 'cos I made a deal with the man upstairs that if Holloway won, I was done betting for the rest of the night... Had no idea Ellenberger would ruin all my parlays... Instead of being up huge, I'm down kiiinda big. All was riding on Ellenberger... then the AZ Dbacks ruined me, too. Had them in a huge parlay with Holloway and Lawrence.

yeah, thts why im trying to scale back on amount of plays I make. I get caught up in betting on fighters just for the action as well sometimes and nothing more annoying when ur most confident play is cancelled out by a load of other plays tht u weren't tht confident in (such as me with Not Kampmann inside the distance). All about quality over quantity I guess. All good bruva, next couple of events are the ones I'm more interested in...like a certain Armenian a lot in the next event!

Originally Posted by Vaughany

yeah, thts why im trying to scale back on amount of plays I make. I get caught up in betting on fighters just for the action as well sometimes and nothing more annoying when ur most confident play is cancelled out by a load of other plays tht u weren't tht confident in (such as me with Not Kampmann inside the distance). All about quality over quantity I guess. All good bruva, next couple of events are the ones I'm more interested in...like a certain Armenian a lot in the next event!

Me, too, I really hope the line on that fight isn't bad...

What do you make of Pyle vs Neer? I'm backing Neer, hope you are too, since we backed him together last time around.

Originally Posted by gabe

Me, too, I really hope the line on that fight isn't bad...

What do you make of Pyle vs Neer? I'm backing Neer, hope you are too, since we backed him together last time around.

I'm liking Not Pyle Inside the Distance...almost parlayed him with Justin Lawrence and Sam Stout