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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#4788

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I am not so sure about Mcgee getting the decision here. He lost the first round against ryan jensen. The fight against dong was quite close although he seems to get stronger as the fight goes. But he is a serious slow starter which might be his downfall in this fight. Constantinos strength and wrestling may also be good enough to keep this fight standing where he IMO can pick MCgee apart. I am not sold on any of these guys really, but right now i think constantinos has showed improvements a lot of improvements and fight ending qualities,while mcgees biggest improvements have happened outside the ring.
#4790

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Yeah, granted he did defend Shield's take-downs easier than I thought and Im sure many others thought, but it was the 100% takedown defence stat we were chastising rather than your general assertion tht he has good takedown defence
Whatever dude, I was warning people on here to be cautious of akiyamas underated TDD due to a variety of factors including his strong judo base. Re-read the post(s). And ya I was right.

Surprisingly it was shields striking that actually won him the fight. Disgusting win none the less.
Last edited by fosho14; 02-26-12 at 07:40 PM.
#4791

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UFC 144 Review:

Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Updated summary of UFC 144 plays:


10 units on Pettis/Lauzon FOTN at +750 to win 75 units;


6.666 units on Edgar/Henderson FOTN at +375 to win 24.997 units;


0.338 units on Edgar/Henderson FOTN at +400 to win 1.352 units;


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;


Parlay (double): 2.273 units on Ben Henderson (+110), & Jon Jones (-400) to win 3.694 units;


Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;

Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


Parlay: 3.187 units on Salas/Kuivanen Over 2.5 Rounds (-135), Rampage/Bader to Go the Distance (Evens), & Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280) to win 11.869 units;


Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units;



Parlay (double): 11 units on Okami (-275) and Shields (-250) to win 10 units;


Parlay: 6.3 units on Hioki/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-490), Pettis (-250), & Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 3 (-665) to win 5.917 units;


Parlay: 1.575 units on Hioki/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-490), Pettis (-250), Shields/Akiyama Starts Round 2 (-802), Kongo Inside the Distance (Evens), Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 3 (-665), & Not Thiago Alves Inside the Distance (-780) to win 6.176 units;


13.335 units on Kongo at -210 to win 6.35 units;


Parlay (double): 6.349 units on Kongo (-290), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.613 units;



3.75 units on Kongo by TKO/KO at +200 to win 7.5 units;

hedged with:

3 units on Not Kongo Inside the Distance at +125 to win 3.75 units;


8.498 units on Kongo by Decision at +481 to win 40.877 units;

hedged with:

37.5 units on Kongo/Hunt to Not Go the Distance at -250 to win 15 units

(Also got an arb with more on Not Distance at -250 and Fight Goes Distance at +380 so will make 0.274 units if it doesnt go distance or 7.122 units if it does go distance);


0.63 units on Shields SOTN at +1500 to win 9.45 units;

0.148 units on Shields SOTN at +900 to win 1.332 units;


5 units on Cantwell at +260 to win 13 units;

hedged with:

7 units on Fukuda by Decision at -137 to win 5.109 units.


4.286 units on Palaszewski at +204.15 to win 8.75 units;

0.126 units on Palaszewski by TKO/KO at +1200 to win 1.512 units;


0.5 units on Hunt KOTN at +1000 to win 5 units;


0.11 units on Kongo SOTN at +2000 to win 2.2 units;


0.2 units on Hioki SOTN at +2500 to win 5 units;


0.2 units on Bader SOTN at +5000 to win 10 units;

0.042 units on Bader SOTN at +5500 to win 2.31 units;


Parlay: 3.15 units on Mizugaki/Cariaso to Go the Distance (-270), Okami/Boetsch Starts Round 2 (-617), Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 2 (-942), & Alves/Kampmann to Go the Distance (-300) to win 4.248 units;


Parlay: 0.63 units on Tamura (+225), Mizugaki/Cariaso to Go the Distance (-270), & Ben Henderson (+130) to win 5.824 units;


Parlay: 0.63 units on Mizugaki by Decision (-135), & Tottenham PK (+110) to win 1.673 units;



1.29 units on Mizugaki by Decision at Evens to win 1.29 units;


0.523 units on Rampage by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.308 units;

1.026 units on Rampage/Bader to Not Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.282 units;

1.151 units on Rampage/Bader Under 2.5 Rounds at +110 to win 1.266 units.



Also got risk free play on Bader by decision to win 5.044 units.
Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Adding:


Parlay (double): 3.15 units on Mizugaki (-300), & Henderson (+130) to win 6.51 units.
Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Adding:


2.5 units on Pettis by Decision at +300 to win 7.5 units;

hedged with:

1.908 units on Fight to Not Go the Distance at -150 to win 1.272 units;

1.76 units on Fight Under 2.5 Rounds at -137.5 to win 1.28 units.
Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Adding (live-in-play bet):


22.5 units on Hioki/Palaszewski to Go the Distance at -150 to win 15 units.
Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Adding:


Parlay: 6.3 units on Shields (-360), Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 2 (-835), & Tottenham PK (+109) to win 12.54 units.
Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Adding:


6.3 units on Rampage in Round 1 at +400 to win 25.2 units;

hedged with:

19.341 units on Rampage/Bader Starts Round 2 at -307 to win 6.3 units.
Stake: 207.051 units

Return: 224.426 units

Profit: +17.375 units (+18.702 units inc' arbs)

Not as great as I'd hoped, Kongo losing and Mizugaki not getting the decision didn't help. Okami killed the double with Shields and Tottenham squandered a 2 goal lead against Arsenal and lost so that also ruined a parlay with Shields in. Edgar/Henderson going the distance and being FOTN saved my night...probably should of focused on that fight more and had more on it being FOTN rather than as a hedge to Pettis/Lauzon FOTN. Still got a few parlays listed above going strong though thanks to fight going distance and Bader not winning inside and Bader/Rampage going distance.
Last edited by Vaughany; 02-27-12 at 05:42 AM.
#4792

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
UFC 144 Review:

Stake: 207.051 units

Return: 224.426 units

Profit: +17.375 units (+18.702 units inc' arbs)

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units

(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):

UFC 130: +45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale: -16.766 units
UFC 131: +17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum: +11.474 units
UFC Versus 4: +25.288 units
UFC 132: +1.783 units
Cage Warriors 43: +1.308 units
Strikeforce: Henderson vs Fedor: +3.274 units
UFC 133: -12.302 units
UFC Versus 5: -5.073 units
UFC 134 : -10.214 units
UFC Battle on the Bayou: +20.466 units
Titan Fighting Championships 19: -1.863 units
UFC 135: +53.938 units
UFC Versus 6: +4.021 units
UFC 136: -33.134 units
Bellator 55: -5.731 units
UFC 137: +4.337 units (+10.151 units inc’ arb)
UFC 138: +57.692 units
UFC on FOX: +5.087 units (+121.575 units inc' arbs)
UFC 139: +15.24 units (+28.647 units inc' arbs)
UFC 140: -15.065 units
UFC 141: +70.166 units (+78.399 units inc' arbs)
Strikeforce: Rockhold vs Jardine: +0.664 units
UFC 142: +19.627 units (+44.333 units inc' arbs)
UFC on FX 1: +19.764 units (+24.264 units inc' arb)
UFC on FOX 2: +36.222 units (+38.571 units inc' arbs)
UFC 143: +78.321 units (+80.938 units inc' arbs)
UFC on FUEL 1: +12.958 units (+26.034 units inc' Dirty Bird Means arb)
Cage Warriors 45: +15.949 units
UFC 144: +17.375 units (+18.702 units inc' arbs)

Total profit (excluding arbs): +716.294 units
#4793

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Pending plays going in to next weekend:


6.913 units on Rousey at -201 to win 3.439 units;

7.445 units on Thiago Alves at Evens to win 7.445 units.

Parlay: 3.15 units on Mizugaki/Cariaso to Go the Distance (-270), Okami/Boetsch Starts Round 2 (-617), Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 2 (-942), & Alves/Kampmann to Go the Distance (-300) to win 4.248 units;

6.305 units on Benavidez/Urushitani to Not Go the Distance at +180 to win 11.349 units.

Don't see Benavidez losing a decision if it goes the distance so this will be played along with Benavidez by decision at a plus number.
Last edited by Vaughany; 02-27-12 at 06:19 AM.