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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#4711

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Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
Joe Rogan is right. Rampage is so sensitive u can't say anything about the guy without him getting upset. Now Rich frankilin has to do commentary and i guess he shouldn't talk about Page. Page is a piece of work because what Franklin said is true.

“My friend already texted me what Rich Franklin said and Rich Franklin needs to watch his mouth for next time I see him. He’s a fighter just like I’m a fighter and he should watch what he says. You don’t question if a fighter takes his fight serious or not. I’m tired of people saying that. So what? I get ups and downs in my fight career just like everybody else but I’m still here. I’ve been around for 11 years but I’m still here. I take all my fights seriously and I’m tired of people questioning me. I’m one fighter that I haven’t backed out of a fight yet due to injuries, if I win I win if I lose I lose. I’ve won some fights injured and I’ve lost some fights injured, so that’s just me. I’m the one that has to answer it in the end of the day.
That’s why I am the way I am, I get paid to fight, If I get injured the next thing I’m doing is asking my doctor if I can still fight and this time my doctor said no, you can’t fight. Through the grace of the most high I healed up and I kept training through my injury. I trained other things, I didn’t take time off, I kept training but my weight suffered, it happens.”
Gabe is like the Rampage of this forum!
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#4712

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Bought out of this with 20.8 units on Bader at +200. For all I know Rampage could have an injured knee and one kick from Bader could stop the fight or something! Was very confident in Rampage if in half-decent shape, but with this injury I'm not so sure, so taken Bader at +200 before it gets any worse.

This missing weight fiasco has also thrown a spanner in to my plan of playing Rampage KO of the Night hedged with "Not Rampage Inside Distance at -186". Not so confident that Dana will be too willing to give him any awards after missing weight.
pretty sure he's not eligible to win FOTN or SOTN.

anthony johnson wasnt eligible for his KO of yoshida, and nick pace wasnt eligible with the pillory choke of campuzano (definitley would have won otherwise).
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#4713

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Added:


10 units on Pettis/Lauzon FOTN at +750 to win 75 units;


6.666 units on Edgar/Henderson FOTN at +375 to win 24.997 units.


One of the random fights like Vaughan Lee/Kid or Mizugaki/Cariaso will probably go and get it, but couldn't resist playing both of these. Edgar/Bendo should go at least 3 rounds so chances of it getting FOTN are obviously very high. As long as Pettis/Lauzon doesnt finish early in Round 1 it has a great chance of getting FOTN...JLau is a bonus collector and we all know how exciting Pettis is to watch with his flashiness!!
Last edited by Vaughany; 02-25-12 at 07:55 AM.
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#4716

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anybody else thinking that okami might be in for a rough fight?.....he`s deservedly the fave,but,marquardt had some wrestling success vs okami.....-360 seems a bit steep.imo,considering how strong boetsch looks at 185...

boetsch wrestled at lock haven(great program) and some of his losses came in short notice fights vs top 205 pounders...seems like he has some serious momentum....

i put okami in a par and the more i looked at this,the more leery i became....probably going to hedge with boetsch or throw him in a longshot par with henderson at a little over 8-1...5 dimes leaves their lines up until fight time ususally,so that leaves some room for adjustment depending on what happens...

anybody else think boetsch is a bit of a wildcard here?...
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#4717

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Quote Originally Posted by rocky mattioli View Post
anybody else thinking that okami might be in for a rough fight?.....he`s deservedly the fave,but,marquardt had some wrestling success vs okami.....-360 seems a bit steep.imo,considering how strong boetsch looks at 185...

boetsch wrestled at lock haven(great program) and some of his losses came in short notice fights vs top 205 pounders...seems like he has some serious momentum....

i put okami in a par and the more i looked at this,the more leery i became....probably going to hedge with boetsch or throw him in a longshot par with henderson at a little over 8-1...5 dimes leaves their lines up until fight time ususally,so that leaves some room for adjustment depending on what happens...

anybody else think boetsch is a bit of a wildcard here?...
Totally agree. Got Okami at -275 in a parlay with Shields, but with Boetsch now at +310 the current Okami line seems too steep. His two wins against the better level of competition he has faced in Nate and Munoz weren't exactly dominant wins
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#4718

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Updated summary of UFC 144 plays:


10 units on Pettis/Lauzon FOTN at +750 to win 75 units;


6.666 units on Edgar/Henderson FOTN at +375 to win 24.997 units;


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;


Parlay (double): 2.273 units on Ben Henderson (+110), & Jon Jones (-400) to win 3.694 units;


Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;

Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


Parlay: 3.187 units on Salas/Kuivanen Over 2.5 Rounds (-135), Rampage/Bader to Go the Distance (Evens), & Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280) to win 11.869 units;


Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units;


Parlay (double): 11 units on Okami (-275) and Shields (-250) to win 10 units;


Parlay: 6.3 units on Hioki/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-490), Pettis (-250), & Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 3 (-665) to win 5.917 units;


Parlay: 1.575 units on Hioki/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-490), Pettis (-250), Shields/Akiyama Starts Round 2 (-802), Kongo Inside the Distance (Evens), Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 3 (-665), & Not Thiago Alves Inside the Distance (-780) to win 6.176 units;


13.335 units on Kongo at -210 to win 6.35 units;


Parlay (double): 6.349 units on Kongo (-290), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.613 units;


3.75 units on Kongo by TKO/KO at +200 to win 7.5 units;

hedged with:

3 units on Not Kongo Inside the Distance at +125 to win 3.75 units;


8.498 units on Kongo by Decision at +481 to win 40.877 units;

hedged with:

37.5 units on Kongo/Hunt to Not Go the Distance at -250 to win 15 units

(Also got an arb with more on Not Distance at -250 and Fight Goes Distance at +380 so will make 0.274 units if it doesnt go distance or 7.122 units if it does go distance);


0.63 units on Shields SOTN at +1500 to win 9.45 units;


5 units on Cantwell at +260 to win 13 units;

hedged with:

7 units on Fukuda by Decision at -137 to win 5.109 units.
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#4720

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I have liked Boetsch since moving to 185lbs. He is a bull. That said Okami is a strong 185er as well. I think Okami is better in all areas. But if he messes around he could catch a hard shot that could change the fight.

I defiantly think Boetsch has a shot. Okami doesn't really impose his will all the time. If Boetsch does he could catch Okami off-guard.
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