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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#4621

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Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
I wasn't on Papazian.

I was on the other two. I've posted at least two dozen times in agreement in a thread here or there with whom I'm on without listing a specific play. I've made it clear if you look around that I will be playing Hioki and Lee on this card.

I also have a thread with around 20 'official plays' listed, in which this play is listed as pending:

UFC 144
Ben Henderson +125 3u to win 3.75u

None of these plays really indicate what my real action is however. On UFC 143 I had 97 individual bets placed, for example. I do most of my betting once limits open up and lines start moving around.
You's a true G and don't you EVER forget it!

I make a shit ton of bets per card too
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#4622

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Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
So you're not confident enough in anyone to avoid arbing out?
Im confident in Rampage at -200 enough to not arb out.


As Nunya said... "Because the free money exists because one side is mispriced. You're hedging away your edge."

Yes, Bart at +175 might be mispriced or at least softer in comparison to other lines out there, but that doesn't necessarily mean I think it is mispriced. I like Bart in this one but I actually thought he'd be closer to +200.

But Nunya is right that a lot of the time I could let my plays ride out and make more money but with more variance. In this case I was reasonably confident that Hioki was/is going to stick around -150 to -170 as people are clearly prepared to bet on Bart at +130 to +155 range, so I'm happy to put a load on Bart at the +175 line which is best I've seen out (even if I wouldnt of played it normally) and arb out. I see this fight with Hioki going the distance more often then not so you are then relying on Bart doing enough to get a decision. My awareness of dodgy decisions is the main reason that stops me from making big plays on such fights as there is nothing worse than getting screwed over. The fact that its in Japan and they are going to be fighting early morning on Sunday also complicates things slightly as well.
Last edited by Vaughany; 02-22-12 at 03:23 AM.
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#4624

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Quote Originally Posted by Educ8d Degener8 View Post
F*ck all this complicated math mumbo jumbo Nunya!

Tell the people the simple way to make caaaaaaaaaaaaash mun-neeeeee...

Put all your money on AAPL and the Facebook IPO, and Anderson Silva + Jon Jones.

(keep some liquid funds for hookers, lap dances and party favors)


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#4625

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Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
So just Rampage? Not as confident in Okami, Shields, Kongo?
Sorry yes, keep forgetting about Kongo. Kongo is probably the one Im most confident in, I wont be arbing out of the plays I have on him at -220 or whatever it was. Okami and Shields are two guys that I do think are slightly over-rated and wouldn't feel comfortable playing them straight up at the -300 or worse that they are at at moment.
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#4628

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tamura will have to land TD's the entire fight and control the lay and pray to win, its his only shot and i don't think that will happen after the 1st round, i normally would lean to a fighter like tamura but i think zhang has the footwork to avoid and scramble, and i just love his submission game, i could see zhang baiting tamura later on for the TD's and locking in the guillotine. i like his striking to be a factor vs. tamura, zhang has been in the states long enough now to know how to deal with many styles and to me tamura is 1 dimensional and less experince. this line is high and u could be right on this one, im sticking my neck out a bit with zhang, i have him being the better striker(especially counter-striker), better subs, more experience, ufc seasoned and i think his angle control and footwork will keep him from being put down, on the ground-off his back, very good active guard.
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#4630

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Okami and Shields are two guys that I do think are slightly over-rated and wouldn't feel comfortable playing them straight up at the -300 or worse that they are at at moment.
So after all that talk about akiyama not being able to come close to defending shields takedowns, why wouldn't you be confident enough in shields to put money on him? It is very unlikely that akiyama ko's shields....
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#4631

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Quote Originally Posted by fosho14 View Post
So after all that talk about akiyama not being able to come close to defending shields takedowns, why wouldn't you be confident enough in shields to put money on him? It is very unlikely that akiyama ko's shields....

Well I have got money on him in a double with Okami.

But why is it unlikely? Shields stand-up is pretty average. And I dont recall saying Akiyama wont come close to defending Shield's takedowns - I simply stated the facts - his takedown defence is 100% because nobody has tried to take him down, and that just because a guy is an elite judo practitioner doesnt necessarily mean they will be able to stop the takedown.

I dont play anybody straight up at -250 to -300 range unless I think they are equal to in most, or have an advantage in every area. Shields clearly doesnt have a striking edge.
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#4632

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Well I have got money on him in a double with Okami.

But why is it unlikely? Shields stand-up is pretty average. And I dont recall saying Akiyama wont come close to defending Shield's takedowns - I simply stated the facts - his takedown defence is 100% because nobody has tried to take him down, and that just because a guy is an elite judo practitioner doesnt necessarily mean they will be able to stop the takedown.

I dont play anybody straight up at -250 to -300 range unless I think they are equal to in most, or have an advantage in every area. Shields clearly doesnt have a striking edge.
That is the biggest compliment anyone has ever given Shields
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#4633

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
But why is it unlikely?
Why is it unlikely that akiyama will ko shields? it is unlikely because he hasn't knocked anyone out in 5 years, and aside from jake getting caught flush on the jaw by an ellenberger knee missile he has shown to have a durable chin. (weathering the storm of a henderson h-bomb). And dan henderson hits hard..very hard.
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