Yeah hope to get him at +140 to +150 range
143 Countdown.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNpMK03Trhs
Semtex's thoughts on main event:
"Even tho I've fought diaz, its clear condit has fought a better level of opponent. Also his is probley the first time Nick has fought someone his own size n reach. Condit is rangey, un orthodox and has wrestling and submission. Serious. Diaz lost to KJ noons and went 5 rnds with him in the re-match. KJ is a small 155lb fighter!! As a betting man, I say condit via TKO. 1st rnd."
"Diaz is gonna lose. 100%."
"I'm a Diaz fan, just based on styles and previous bouts. Condit has got this. And easier than people think."
"Diaz has got better?....really. He got beat up in the Noons rematch, and compustrike had Noons winning the re-match."
Originally Posted by BDillon1
Vaughany,
I've been following your threads and posts as a non-member and have been getting advice on bets based on your picks. I just registered today and wanted to thank you for the free advice and help you give to people on this board. I look forward to seeing your UFC 143 picks.
-BrentAppreciate it.
Very tough fight to call, but as u allude to I find it very hard to imagine Werdum finishing Nelson. So then if you like Werdum in this one then you are basically counting on Werdum doing enough to get the decision which is risky as he doesn't exactly have amazing cardio. Really depends if he looks to take Nelson down and whether he can get him down and control from top.Gabe, that's exactly what I did, turns out betting on the guy because hes like-able doesn't cut it! I'll learn next time...
Who do yall have in Nelson Vs. Werdum? I like Nelson in this and ever since TUF, I've learned never to count him out. Werdum hasn't impressed me in a while, and with him telling Nelson to keep his hands up... Let's face it... he's not going to knock out Roy. The guy is like stone. I'm thinking of placing him in a few parlays or arbs but I want to hold off hoping his line will drop. Who ya got?
Ask Daley if he wants to go Evens with me on that bet. I get Diaz at EV and he gets Condit at EVSemtex's thoughts on main event:
"Even tho I've fought diaz, its clear condit has fought a better level of opponent. Also his is probley the first time Nick has fought someone his own size n reach. Condit is rangey, un orthodox and has wrestling and submission. Serious. Diaz lost to KJ noons and went 5 rnds with him in the re-match. KJ is a small 155lb fighter!! As a betting man, I say condit via TKO. 1st rnd."
"Diaz is gonna lose. 100%."
"I'm a Diaz fan, just based on styles and previous bouts. Condit has got this. And easier than people think."
"Diaz has got better?....really. He got beat up in the Noons rematch, and compustrike had Noons winning the re-match."
ha Condit by TKO in first round is an ambitious prediction by Paul for sure!
It is totally possible. I do not believe Diaz's chin is as granite as a Rampage, Hendo, Shogunha Condit by TKO in first round is an ambitious prediction by Paul for sure!
We have seen Diaz get rocked before and recover. Plus, Condit is a huge WW. As Daley noted, the reach advantage Diaz usually enjoys will be gone here. I can definetely see as Disz is throwing those body hooks, Condit connecting with a left hook.
Tuff card to bet on imo. Not much value on it, since I seem to agree with the bookmakers this time.
Diaz vs Condit, hmm. They both have great recovery, great cardio, great/good Bjj, great striking in their own way. I agree that Diaz is the favourite though. I think that Diaz takes him into deep water and finishes it in the 4th or 5th, probably by TKO. Maybe a decision. One thing to consider though, Diaz takes alot of dmg. He has an iron chin, but has been rocked a few times, primarily in the first round, albeit by very strong strikers. It's not impossible that Condit plans to end it in the first. If he connects with something simular as the knee he did on 'Stun Gun', then he might TKO Diaz. I might bet small on Condit 1st round TKO, strictly because of the value.
Werdum vs Nelson. I don't think Werdum can TKO Nelson, nevermind KO lol! Werdum does have pretty underrated striking though and he is tuff. On the ground Werdum should have the advantage, but Nelson can defend himself pretty well. I think they cancel each other out on the ground for the most part, though Werdum might catch him if he gets the chance. Hard fight, I think Werdum is the favourite, but I have a hard time seeing him stopping Nelson. Nelson also have that strong right hand.
Barao vs Jorgenson. Hard to bet against Barao after his last performance. Man the way he took Pickett's back was ungodly lol. The question is though, is Jorgenson a decent underdog bet with the current odds?
Herman vs Starks. Not sure what to think about this one. Don't really care for Herman, but he has looked good in has last few outings. Don't know anything about Starks.
Sorry for the long post, cheers!
Last edited by Sano; 02-01-12 at 09:28 AM.
I'm all confused about Thompson, everyone's saying he's undefeated, yet he lost to Raymond Daniels in the WCL.
what's the deal?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6yek81uV6II'm all confused about Thompson, everyone's saying he's undefeated, yet he lost to Raymond Daniels in the WCL.
what's the deal?
Some googling suggests it may have been ruled a no contest due to an illegal move from Daniels that caused Thompson to blow out his knee...
Fun degen side note: In his first and only mma bout, Raymond Daniels lost to Jeremiah Metcalf at SF Melendez vs Thomson.
Last edited by Educ8d Degener8; 02-01-12 at 12:28 PM.
Added:
Parlay (double): 6.315 units on Matt Brown (-300) & Nelson/Werdum to Go the Distance (+160) to win 15.58 units;
Parlay (double): 0.947 units on Koscheck (-220) & Condit by Decision (+550) to win 8.009 units.
Happy to see brown in your parlay
Added:
11.5 units on Figueroa at -115 to win 10 units.
Still not fully sold on Bruce Leroy. He looked a lot better against Escovedo, considerably more composed, however I think Cole's horrible performance contributed to this. Cole had no idea how to throw a combination or time a punch and was hopeless with the couple half-hearted take-down attempts he had. Like Figueroa up to -125 in this one. Caceres will probably have slight size and cardio advantage, and will definitely be quicker and could take a decision just by landing more kicks and throwing flashy stuff tht wows the judges. Figueroa was very slow and wild in the McDonald fight but you have to take into account the very short notice tht he came in on for tht one. Against Reinhardt he looked in a lot better shape and was more controlled and methodological with his striking. Although Bruce Leroy is quick and bounces around a lot, I still have reservations about his defence - he doesn't have any head-movement, leaves his chin out there, and there are opportunities to exploit his flashy striking. I think Figueroa has the aggressiveness and power to exploit these deficiencies and either finish Leroy in the second half of the fight or at least do enough to get the decision. Depending on whether Sportbet offer more props I may add fight goes distance in a parlay or Caceres by decision as back up.
I'm on fight goes over 2.5
UFC 144 play:
41.6 units on Rampage at -200 to win 20.8 units.
Anticipate that this line will only get worse. Will be involving "Fight goes distance" or "Bader by decision", and "Fight starts Round 2" in some parlays as back-up. Just don't see how Bader can finish Rampage. May even arb out completely if Bader hits +250 to +300 range, as I liked Rampage KO of the Night at +400 or better as my original play for this fight.
