Congrats on another profitable night. See that you had Bendo in a few parlays.
Could I get your thoughts on why you favor Bendo over Frankie?
Originally Posted by The Fobfather
Congrats on another profitable night. See that you had Bendo in a few parlays.
Could I get your thoughts on why you favor Bendo over Frankie?
As with my plays on Condit, I don't necessarily favour either Bendo or Condit. Aside from them both being underdogs and thus plus odds meaning they boost parlay payouts substantially, I also just think tht they both have more chance of finishing their opponents, whilst if Diaz and Edgar are victorious I believe that they are more likely to win by decision. This means I can hedge these parlays with Diaz by decision (for the ones with Condit in) and Edgar by decision (for the ones with Bendo in) or even fight goes distance if the odds are right - and thus have greater profit margins with reduced risk (IMO), rather than just arbing with Diaz and Edgar straight-up.
Although Frankie is my favourite fighter, I do think that Bendo has all the tools to beat him. Considerable size advantage, great chin, crazy submission defense, solid wrestling, powerful leg-kicks, very athletic, superb cardio, and the key thing for me which is the ability to implement and stick to a gameplan (which previous opponents Penn and Maynard both weren't able to do).
Last edited by Vaughany; 01-29-12 at 02:50 PM.
Thanks for the insight. I'm a big Bendo fan, but I've learned my lesson betting against Fe. Would love to see Bendo vs. Nate Diaz. Think that would be a war!As with my plays on Condit, I don't necessarily favour either Bendo or Condit. Aside from them both being underdogs and thus plus odds meaning they boost parlay payouts substantially, I also just think tht they both have more chance of finishing their opponents, whilst if Diaz and Edgar are victorious I believe that they are more likely to win by decision. This means I can hedge these parlays with Diaz by decision (for the ones with Condit in) and Edgar by decision (for the ones with Bendo in) or even fight goes distance if the odds are right - and thus have greater profit margins with reduced risk (IMO), rather than just arbing with Diaz and Edgar straight-up.
For me, the fact that it's a 5 round fight makes a big difference. If it was three rounds I'd say there is a reasonable chance Davis gets a close 29-28 or something just by getting the odd take-down and wall and stalling Rashad. But to do tht for 5 rounds is a big task. I find it hard to imagine Davis choking Rashad out (although this may be his best option during a scramble or something) and even harder to imagine him TKO/KO'ing Evans unless he lands one of his right head kicks that he likes to do (could happen if Evans completely overlooks him). One of the key things for me is that Davis has been matched-up with guys who are not the most athletic and quite flat-footed - the opposite of Rashad Evans. Initially he fought three guys with limited wrestling ability in Stann (small LHW now a Middleweight), a very raw Gustaffsson and Rodney Wallace (a chubby LHW with poor cardio). The UFC then stepped it up by giving Davis Tim Boetsch who does have a wrestling background, however aside from being undersized at LHW, he has always struggled and lost to fellow wrestlers in Matyushenko, Brilz and Hamill so stylistically was a good match-up for the superior grappler in Davis. And most recently, Lil Nog was another a fight that wasn't that bad stylistically for Davis seeing as we'd witnessed Nog struggle with lesser wrestlers than Davis in Bader and Brilz before. And like his brother, Lil Nog has never been the most athletic fighter yet he was still able to stuff Davis' early takedown attempts. To Davis' credit he showed how adaptable he can be by switching things up and getting the takedowns in Round 2 and 3 though, and he'd had a bad camp where he had to deal with injuries including his back which undoubtedly impacted on his takedown explosiveness. But Lil Nog being a BJJ guy and not particularly athletic is not the type to automatically spring back to his feet and he'll happily work off his back and look for subs or trying and stall his opponent. After Davis got his first single leg takedown on Nog, Nog was able to kick Davis off and had a great opportunity to get back to his feet but just wasnt athletic enough to do it. Evans on the other hand won't mess around and will always look to use the cage or even the slightest chance to get right back to his feet as soon as he is taken down, and is usually successful. However, this is why I think Davis' best chance may well be to look for the submission as Rashad will take chances and scrambles to get back to his feet. Im sure many will say Davis has no chance of subbing Rashad seeing as Davis is a blue-belt and Rashad is a Rolles Gracie black-belt, has never been subbed and has a huge experience advantage, but Davis like Jones is a bit of an anomaly when it comes to grappling due to his size and length. As we saw in the Boetsch fight, Davis is very creative with his submissions and if he can take Rashad's back or lock in a guillotine during a scramble there is a small chance Rashad taps. As impressive as Davis' sub of Gustaffsson was, we should bare in mind that Gustaffsson was very raw at this point and had not yet trained with Alliance. Even still, although Gustaffsson's offensive grappling has been impressive, defensively there are still question marks as he was taken down early by James Te-Huna.
Davis likes to throw kicks, especially right head and body kick that can open him up for counter left staight and left-hook (which happens to be Rashad's favourite striking technique). Nog was able to counter a couple of times but wasn't quick enough. Rashad is quick enough and is solid at countering with hooks. Against Griffin, Rashad used his left jab and straight right to good effect, and finished the fight with GnP after landing a straight right from catching a Griffin right body kick. I also like how Evans has also now added more body shots, knees and elbows to his game (more of a Muay Thai style rather than kickboxing) since training with Spong and Henry Hooft.
Most my plays on this rely on it going at least a round. I'm pretty confident this one goes the distance. A lot depends on whether Weidman is confident enough to use his wrestling offensively. From seeing and reading interviews with him and Danaher they would suggest that he is confident that he can take Maia down and not get submitted and I tend to agree. With him coming in on short notice I expect Weidman to look to just control him on the ground and try and steal rounds with takedowns and perhaps hold Maia agaisnt the fence just to show "octagon control" and get the nod from the judges. Basically I like Weidman to get the decision. Small chance of a TKO from Weidman through GnP but unlikely.
Big plays on Rashad straight up at -145 and -162.5. Wouldn't take him at worst than -175 tho.
Moderate play on Sonnen by decision at -117 and -120. Again wouldnt play at worse than -125.
Moderate play on Weidman/Maia going the distance and Weidman by decision
Not fully satisfied with the nights results, was expecting to make at least 50 units. Hopefully a few followed on my main card predictions! My bets for main card were perfect but under-card wasn't as great although were only small plays. Evans fight went as I thought - Rashad was superior everywhere, only thing I was wrong on was tht I thought Rashad would get a TKO. Should of expected that he'd coast to a decision and just go through the motions due to being fully aware that a shot at Jones was on the line and he needed to be fit for April time. Fortunately had "fight starts Round 2" in a few parlays so that helped make up for not arbing out of my Dunham and Rashad by TKO/KO double which cost me about 10 units. Got unlucky with the Dunham/Lentz fight not starting round 3...tht cost me just over 6 units, and the Oliveira fight not starting round 2 was another 6 units down the drain! In last few events I've done well in the undercard then slipped up a little on main card - especially with the parlays and "Fight starts Round x" type bets, but this time it was the undercard that I didnt do as well on.
Probably wont have as many plays for UFC 143 aside from the pending parlays that I have involving Condit and Diaz. Condit/Diaz FOTN will probably be my big play, but there are a few fights that could challenge that such as Caceres/Figueroa, Poirier/Holloway, and Barao/Jorgensen so depends on the odds. May also play Nelson hedged with fight goes distance, or Werdum by decision, or Fight Starts Round 2 in a few parlays. Find it hard imagining Werdum finishing Nelson. Pierce KOTN could be a nice long-shot prop that I'd consider - all depends on Koschecks mind-set going in to this one. Koscheck may be over-looking Pierce and be happy to show off his "high-level kickboxing" which actually isn't high-level! If he's smart and uses his wrestling than he should take it comfortably as aside from being the better wrestler he will also have a slight size advantage. Barao/Jorgensen distance prop will be another bet I'll consider depending on the odds, or will at least have "Starts Round 2" in a couple parlays. Ed Herman SOTN could also be an interesting option....if he shows a similar guard to the one against Noke then Starks could be in trouble!
Last edited by Vaughany; 01-29-12 at 05:34 PM.
UFC on FUEL TV 2 play:
12.499 units on Gustafsson at -166.67 to win 7.499 units.
Will probably arb out of this with Lil Nog at +200 or better.
I have 20 units on gustaffson, also at -166, do you know that bookmaker have lil nog at +205? im thinking about arbing out this play as well, but i dont see lil nog winning a decision, which mean i may take the chance on lil nog inside distance as hedge. How do you see this fight going?
Arb out? Naw, Gustie isn't losing, especially at home. I think in your heart you know you are not going to arb out, V. If anything, you're going to add to The Gust.
for your UFC on FOX 2 pwnage-a-tois.
Yeah I think Gustafsson by decision is most likely income. Nog is going to be tough to finish and despite Alexander's rapid grappling improvements since training at Alliance, Nog will still have the advantage on the ground IMO...but I doubt it will go to the ground unless one of them get dropped. Be interesting to see how Gustafsson copes with headlining the first event in his home country. May be he'll rise to the occasion, maybe not...but I'd lean towards it being the former.I have 20 units on gustaffson, also at -166, do you know that bookmaker have lil nog at +205? im thinking about arbing out this play as well, but i dont see lil nog winning a decision, which mean i may take the chance on lil nog inside distance as hedge. How do you see this fight going?
I can't deposit in BM still due to not getting this Netteller authorization thing done yet. Hopefully he'll stick around +200 for a while and I can get him on a Euro book.
Maybe, but as I've said above, I dont think Gustaf will be able to finish Nog. See it going distance so might be better off arbing out and playing Gustaf by decision. Could also have Gustafsson KO of the Night as well as back up as it would have to be a perfect punch on the button to rock and finish Nog (similar to Sokoudjou's).Arb out? Naw, Gustie isn't losing, especially at home. I think in your heart you know you are not going to arb out, V. If anything, you're going to add to The Gust.
Inside the distance or not, Gust ain't losing, homie! But yeah, if it goes to a decsion, he will win, unless he is dominated all 3 rounds.Maybe, but as I've said above, I dont think Gustaf will be able to finish Nog. See it going distance so might be better off arbing out and playing Gustaf by decision. Could also have Gustafsson KO of the Night as well as back up as it would have to be a perfect punch on the button to rock and finish Nog (similar to Sokoudjou's).
Gust is getting boxed up. Bet.
Is Gust a far better striker, gabe?
Yeah he'd have to get dropped early by Nog then be in recovery mode for remainder of fight in order to lose a decisionInside the distance or not, Gust ain't losing, homie! But yeah, if it goes to a decsion, he will win, unless he is dominated all 3 rounds.
Could well happen. He does keep his hands down a lot and doesn't have a lot of head movement. Only thing that seems to have improved since being at Alliance, aside from his grappling obviously, is his footwork and leg-kicks. Like most guys who go to Alliance they end trying to duplicate Dominick Cruz's style of hands low and working unpredictable angles - Travis Browne is best example of this. Ross Pearson also looked quite similar at times during his last couple of fights.Gust is getting boxed up. Bet.
Is Gust a far better striker, gabe?
I'm sure Gabe had the same confidence when Nog fought Luiz Cane, just a hunch.
He might not be as good a boxer, but yeah, I would say the combination of his athleticism, speed, movement, and kickboxing make him the better fighter on the feet.
