Originally Posted by
Vaughany
For me, the fact that it's a 5 round fight makes a big difference. If it was three rounds I'd say there is a reasonable chance Davis gets a close 29-28 or something just by getting the odd take-down and wall and stalling Rashad. But to do tht for 5 rounds is a big task. I find it hard to imagine Davis choking Rashad out (although this may be his best option during a scramble or something) and even harder to imagine him TKO/KO'ing Evans unless he lands one of his right head kicks that he likes to do (could happen if Evans completely overlooks him). One of the key things for me is that Davis has been matched-up with guys who are not the most athletic and quite flat-footed - the opposite of Rashad Evans. Initially he fought three guys with limited wrestling ability in Stann (small LHW now a Middleweight), a very raw Gustaffsson and Rodney Wallace (a chubby LHW with poor cardio). The UFC then stepped it up by giving Davis Tim Boetsch who does have a wrestling background, however aside from being undersized at LHW, he has always struggled and lost to fellow wrestlers in Matyushenko, Brilz and Hamill so stylistically was a good match-up for the superior grappler in Davis. And most recently, Lil Nog was another a fight that wasn't that bad stylistically for Davis seeing as we'd witnessed Nog struggle with lesser wrestlers than Davis in Bader and Brilz before. And like his brother, Lil Nog has never been the most athletic fighter yet he was still able to stuff Davis' early takedown attempts. To Davis' credit he showed how adaptable he can be by switching things up and getting the takedowns in Round 2 and 3 though, and he'd had a bad camp where he had to deal with injuries including his back which undoubtedly impacted on his takedown explosiveness. But Lil Nog being a BJJ guy and not particularly athletic is not the type to automatically spring back to his feet and he'll happily work off his back and look for subs or trying and stall his opponent. After Davis got his first single leg takedown on Nog, Nog was able to kick Davis off and had a great opportunity to get back to his feet but just wasnt athletic enough to do it. Evans on the other hand won't mess around and will always look to use the cage or even the slightest chance to get right back to his feet as soon as he is taken down, and is usually successful. However, this is why I think Davis' best chance may well be to look for the submission as Rashad will take chances and scrambles to get back to his feet. Im sure many will say Davis has no chance of subbing Rashad seeing as Davis is a blue-belt and Rashad is a Rolles Gracie black-belt, has never been subbed and has a huge experience advantage, but Davis like Jones is a bit of an anomaly when it comes to grappling due to his size and length. As we saw in the Boetsch fight, Davis is very creative with his submissions and if he can take Rashad's back or lock in a guillotine during a scramble there is a small chance Rashad taps. As impressive as Davis' sub of Gustaffsson was, we should bare in mind that Gustaffsson was very raw at this point and had not yet trained with Alliance. Even still, although Gustaffsson's offensive grappling has been impressive, defensively there are still question marks as he was taken down early by James Te-Huna.
Davis likes to throw kicks, especially right head and body kick that can open him up for counter left staight and left-hook (which happens to be Rashad's favourite striking technique). Nog was able to counter a couple of times but wasn't quick enough. Rashad is quick enough and is solid at countering with hooks. Against Griffin, Rashad used his left jab and straight right to good effect, and finished the fight with GnP after landing a straight right from catching a Griffin right body kick. I also like how Evans has also now added more body shots, knees and elbows to his game (more of a Muay Thai style rather than kickboxing) since training with Spong and Henry Hooft.