I told Rashad backers he was a steal at -140 then again at -160 --- my gut wouldn't let me go against Philip.
V, is it just me or did rashad look like he would have no chance in hell vs. jones.... davis was no threat anywhere and delivered no angles or strikes or clinches yet rashad seemed medicore in it all. he didn't appear that fast or willing to let the bombs and high kicks go. the pocket flurries were useless and im pretty confident jones will pack a big punch and most important leg kicks. i think the -625 is bang on
Just giving a look at your summary, i think it was a great night bro =) Gratz!
hey v, long time first time -
why the Condit love? Would you make bets on him if he was EV ?
Feel real good about Nick in this one, mainly b/c everything Condit brings to the table that most dont (the intangibles, budo spirit, killer instinct, crafty ways to find Ws, seems be a better fighter once it turns into a "fight"), Nick is in the minority that has them all as well. Five rounds bodes in Nick's favor too IMO, not so much "but he does triathlons" but he's just f'ing resilient and his MO of demoralizing people with his hands in that manner can't be dismissed as anything less than effective beyond belief since Daley and BJ are two of his most recent victims. Looks like a wrestler could exploit his holes (hence why SF never matched him up vs Hieron), but it's 5 rounds, Condit is not a LnP guy, I've ruled that out when sizing this one up (although his ability to adapt to a fight w/ Jackson is probably his best advantage, Diaz is a "stubborn" fighter for lack of a better phrase).
Thanks, looks like you did good tonight but kind of hope that doesn't happen next week for the sake of my account!
- ET
Damn thought we would get a better line on Jones after a second Rashad win.Originally Posted by Vaughany
Kalikas has released Jones as -625 favourite, Evans at +425. Anderson -235, Sonnen +175
Either Sonnen is slowing down/no more roids or Bisping is severely undderrated
Will be very hard (to not say impossible) to bet Jones at -500 or better if he stays in LHW.Damn thought we would get a better line on Jones after a second Rashad win. Either Sonnen is slowing down/no more roids or Bisping is severely undderrated
-450 against machida and -625 against evans. dang.
i think one thing was clear, had bisping fought maia he would've killed him. bisping i feel is really good, his lack of power is why he will always just miss the bigtime. he fought perfectly vs. sonnen, i guess now he gets munoz and that should be fun, atleast with munoz bisping will have to fear some more meaningful striking and power.Damn thought we would get a better line on Jones after a second Rashad win.
Either Sonnen is slowing down/no more roids or Bisping is severely undderrated
Bisping vs Maia makes sense now since they are both coming off a lossi think one thing was clear, had bisping fought maia he would've killed him. bisping i feel is really good, his lack of power is why he will always just miss the bigtime. he fought perfectly vs. sonnen, i guess now he gets munoz and that should be fun, atleast with munoz bisping will have to fear some more meaningful striking and power.
Munoz vs Weidman
I Think many people believed in that talk about "Machida has the perfect style to beat Jones".-450 against machida and -625 against evans. dang.
Last edited by Digo; 01-29-12 at 10:18 AM. Reason: english mistake.
true tha would make sense i was more thinking bisping has a moral win, and with many thinking he actually won that 1st round, but i think ur right. weidman looks good, that would be a very very quick jump. i think after how poorly davis did, maybe ufc waits a bit with weidman, either way i like them allBisping vs Maia makes sense now since they are both coming off a loss
Munoz vs Weidman
any thoughts on Werdum vs Nelson? At first glance, I like Werdum.
If he can protect his chin for round 1 I think his chances improve greatly
i think one thing was clear, had bisping fought maia he would've killed him. bisping i feel is really good, his lack of power is why he will always just miss the bigtime. he fought perfectly vs. sonnen, i guess now he gets munoz and that should be fun, atleast with munoz bisping will have to fear some more meaningful striking and power.
not only would bisping have beaten maia, but i think munoz would have beaten sonnen. everyone who was backing sonnen against munoz probably lucked out.
im a little bitter since i had plays on bisping against maia, and munoz against sonnen.
UFC on FOX 2 Review:
Summary of UFC on FOX 2 plays:
25 units on Evans at -145 to win 17.241 units;
33.3 units on Evans at -162.5 to win 20.492 units;
0.062 units on Evans SOTN at +2500 to win 1.55 units;
Parlay: 0.654 units Barboza (-290), Evans (-150), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 2.351 units;
Parlay: 3.241 units on Saffiedine/Stinson to Go Over 1.5 Rounds (-170), & Evans (-140) to win 5.583 units;
Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;
6.4 units on Evans by TKO/KO at +251 to win 16.065 units;
11.589 units on Not Evans Inside the Distance at -181 to win 6.403 units;
8.823 units on Sonnen by Decision at -117.65 to win 7.5 units;
3.046 units on Sonnen by Decision at -120 to win 2.538 units;
5.048 units on Sonnen/Bisping to Go the Distance at -200 to win 2.524 units;
Parlay: 1.62 units on Sonnen (-333.33), Nick Diaz (-150), & Ben Henderson (+110) to win 5.751 units;
Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;
3.333 units on Maia at +150 to win 4.999 units;
2 units on Weidman by Decision at +175 to win 3.5 units;
1.064 units on Weidman by TKO/KO or by Decision at +120 to win 1.277 units;
0.73 units on Weidman by Decision at +175 to win 1.278 units;
5.048 units on Weidman/Maia to Go the Distance at -200 to win 2.524 units;
Parlay: 6.354 units on Dunham/Lentz Starts Round 3 (-180), Sonnen/Bisping Starts Round 2 (-832), & Evans/Davis Starts Round 2 (-445) to win 7.206 units;
Parlay: 6.357 units on Oliveira/Wisely Starts Round 2 (-135) & Sonnen/Bisping Starts Round 2 (-665) to win 6.372 units;
Parlay: 6.362 units on Juventus/Udinese: Either team to Not Score 4 or more goals (-927), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-675), & Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-403) to win 5.809 units;
Parlay: 0.636 units on Juventus (-179), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), & Napoli/Genoa Over 2.5 Goals (-111) to win 1.635 units.
5 units on Phil Davis SOTN at +1000 to win 50 units;
0.125 units on Phil Davis SOTN at +1200 to win 1.5 units;
hedged with:
35 units on Not Phil Davis by Submission at -670 to win 5.224 units;
If Mr Wonderful wins by Submission he will get SOTN seeing as it's main event, Rashad has never been submitted, and he's the underdog.
Parlay: 10 units on Dunham (-300) & Evans by TKO/KO (+210) to win 31.333 units;
2.4 units on Lentz by Decision at +424 to win 10.176 units;
2.038 units on Dunham/Lentz to Go the Distance at -162.5 to win 1.254 units;
If Dunham wins then I will probably arb out with "Not Evans by TKO/KO" for risk free profit.
0.041 units on Beltran SOTN at +3500 to win 1.435 units;
0.1 units on Beltran SOTN at +3300 to win 3.3 units;
0.5 units on Roller by Submission at +200 to win 1 unit;
1.872 units on Cammozi/Jacoby to Go the Distance at -150 to win 1.248 units
0.686 units on Camozzi by Decision at +187.5 to win 1.286 units.Quite a few arbs on the go. Will make 3.32 units profit if Einemo wins or 0.325 units if Russow wins (plus another 0.4 units if Russow wins by TKO/KO). Arbed out of my 70 units on Sonnen at -350 with Bisping at +385 so will make 7 units if Bisping wins or overall stake back if Sonnen wins. Also got Not Maia Submission of the Night at -420, and Maia SOTN at +800 and +900 so will make a risk free 21.8 units profit if Maia gets SOTN, or 0.316 units if not. Similar with Bisping SOTN at +3300, and Not Bisping SOTN at -1500...30 units if he does get SOTN or 1 unit if not.
Should of waited longer but also got Swanson at -105 and Roop at +120...will net me 2.436 units if Roop wins, 0.351 if Swanson is victorious.Adding:
Parlay: 6.362 units on Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-495), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-488), & Condit (+155) to win 17.135 units.Adding:
Parlay: 6.362 units on Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-371), & Condit (+155) to win 14.234 units.
Total stake: 188.193 units
Total return: 224.415 units
Total profit: +36.222 units (+38.571 units inc' arbs)
Plus have the following pending parlays going strong coming off of UFC on FOX 2:
Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;
Parlay: 0.654 units Barboza (-290), Evans (-150), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 2.351 units;
Parlay: 6.362 units on Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-495), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-488), & Condit (+155) to win 17.135 units.
Parlay: 6.362 units on Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-371), & Condit (+155) to win 14.234 units.
Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;
Parlay: 1.62 units on Sonnen (-333.33), Nick Diaz (-150), & Ben Henderson (+110) to win 5.751 units;
Last edited by Vaughany; 01-29-12 at 02:45 PM.
