Vaughany, sorry to hijack. What's your opinion about Massenzio-Palhares? I can't get your great lines, so I'm not sure. I just want to stack on Palhares to finish at -200. He showed power striking against Dan Miller, so him not finishing Massenzio just doesn't make sense.
No worries bro. I think Massenzio shouldnt be such a big dog, but then Palhares is a beast and should be able to finish. I personally wouldnt take the odds that are on Sportbet/5dimes right now tho, just all too steep. I got Palhares SOTN on there at +450 opener and now it's half that. We all know how wild Palhares is, he might get overawed by the occasion and make a mistake and get TKO'd...Massenzio does have reasonable power and is a decent sized MW.
UFC 142 plays summary:
Parlay: 6.407 units on Volkmann (-225), Not Hendricks by Submission (-1570), Overeem/Lesnar to Not Start Round 4 (-440), & Aldo (-220) to win 11.165 units;
Parlay (double): 6.437 units on Overeem Inside the Distance (-123) & Aldo (-245) to win 9.995 units;
Parlay (double): 3.268 units on Overeem/Lesnar to Not Start Round 4 (-340), & Aldo (-220) to win 2.884 units;
1.666 units on Mendes by Decision at +450 to win 7.497 units;
hedged with:
1.2 units on Aldo/Mendes to Not go the Distance at +145 to win 1.74 units;
Parlay: 6.468 units on Johnson/Belfort To Not Start Round 3 (-131), Aldo/Mendes To Start Round 2 (-892), & Evans/Davis To Not Go the Distance (-165) to win 13.904 units;
Parlay (double): 0.433 units on Belfort by TKO/KO & Aldo by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 4.33 units;
6.47 units on Rumble Johnson by TKO/KO at +315 to win 20.381 units;
0.98 units on Belfort KOTN at +710 to win 6.961 units;
0.1 units on Belfort by Submission at +1050 to win 1.05 units;
1.666 units on Rumble Johnson by Decision at +450 to win 7.497 units;
hedged with:
4 units on Rumble/Belfort To Not Go the Distance at -230 to win 1.739 units;
3.268 units on Palhares SOTN at +450 to win 14.706 units;
0.89 units on Palhares by Submission at +140 to win 1.246 units;
0.653 units on Palhares/Massenzio to be FOTN at +1200 to win 7.841 units;
4 units on Palhares by Decision at +388 to win 15.52 units;
7.499 units on Palhares/Massenzio to Not Go the Distance at -166.67 to win 4.499 units;
1.511 units on Palhares/Massenzio to Not Go the Distance at -120 to win 1.259 units;
1.138 units on Palhares/Massenzio to Finish Under 2.5 Rounds at +110 to win 1.252 units;
2.4 units on Massenzio at +425 to win 10.2 units;
6.481 units on Barboza/Etim to Go the Distance at +140 to win 9.073 units;
Parlay: 3.268 units on Not Tavares Inside the Distance (-381), Silva/Prater to Start Round 2 (-257), Not Massenzio by Submission (-4410), Not Rumble by Submission (-3425), & Not Phil Davis Inside the Distance (-398) to win 4.28 units;
Parlay: 3.268 units on Alcantaro/Omigawa to Start Round 2 (-410), Not Ednaldo Oliveira by Submission (-2135), Not Tavares by TKO/KO (-3085), Silva/Prater to Start Round 2 (-260), Not Massenzio (-5075), & Not Rumble by Submission (-5450) to win 3.049 units;
Parlay: 3.26 units on Silva/Prater to Start Round 2 (-215), Not Massenzio by Submission (-3250), Not Rumble by Submission (-5040), Aldo/Mendes to Start Round 2 (-705), & Munoz/Sonnen to Go the Distance (-230) to win 4.966 units;
Parlay: 1.63 units on Stout (-120), Palhares/Massenzio to Start Round 2 (-210), Aldo/Mendes to Start Round 2 (-705), & Maia/Bisping to Go the Distance (-210) to win 5.805 units;
3.594 units on Gonzaga at -110 to win 3.267 units;
2.5 units on Arantes at +197 to win 4.925 units;
0.64 units on Tavares/Stout to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at +200 to win 1.28 units;
0.722 units on Alcantara by Decision at +175 to win 1.263 units.
A lot of arbs for this card. My personal favourite is risk free play on Barboza/Etim being FOTN at +700 and +600 arbed with Not Barboza/Etim FOTN at -460...will make 8.765 units profit if it is FOTN. Also, arbed out of the 45.7 units that I had on Rumble at +120 with Belfort at Evens at -110 so will make 8.688 units if Belfort wins or 0.02 if Rumble wins. And after one book put the props back up I grabbed Fight to Go Distance at +310 and played fight to not go distance at -200 and -250 so also will make a further 6.985 units if it doesn't go distance or 0.43 units if it does. Also will make 4.303 units if Erick Silva wins by TKO/KO or 0.139 if not. If it goes distance I'll make 2.98 units or 0.068 units if it doesn't. Finally, will make a further 1.768 units if Aldo wins by decision or 0.129 if not. Best of luck all
Last edited by Vaughany; 01-14-12 at 05:57 PM.
Strikeforce Grand Prix Final plays:
6.913 units on Rousey at -201 to win 3.439 units;
5 units on Cormier at +140 to win 7 units.
Yeah. Don't see how Cormier is the underdog against Barnett after destroyed Bigfoot. Barnett's capable everywhere, but I personally think Bigfoot was a tougher fight for Cormier, due to the size and reach.
im with the rounda pick
The future Mrs. Bubzy
Up about 6.1 units so far after Arantes win and Alcantara decision. Parlay with Alcantara/Omigawa starting round 2 also still alive. Jus need Gonzaga to get it done now
Thanks. Under 11.5 minutes for Palhares/Massenzio sound fair