Login Search

Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Last Post
#3545

Default

Quote Originally Posted by koscheckbaby View Post
Vaughany, sorry to hijack. What's your opinion about Massenzio-Palhares? I can't get your great lines, so I'm not sure. I just want to stack on Palhares to finish at -200. He showed power striking against Dan Miller, so him not finishing Massenzio just doesn't make sense.
No worries bro. I think Massenzio shouldnt be such a big dog, but then Palhares is a beast and should be able to finish. I personally wouldnt take the odds that are on Sportbet/5dimes right now tho, just all too steep. I got Palhares SOTN on there at +450 opener and now it's half that. We all know how wild Palhares is, he might get overawed by the occasion and make a mistake and get TKO'd...Massenzio does have reasonable power and is a decent sized MW.
#3546

Default

UFC 142 plays summary:



Parlay: 6.407 units on Volkmann (-225), Not Hendricks by Submission (-1570), Overeem/Lesnar to Not Start Round 4 (-440), & Aldo (-220) to win 11.165 units;

Parlay (double): 6.437 units on Overeem Inside the Distance (-123) & Aldo (-245) to win 9.995 units;

Parlay (double): 3.268 units on Overeem/Lesnar to Not Start Round 4 (-340), & Aldo (-220) to win 2.884 units;


1.666 units on Mendes by Decision at +450 to win 7.497 units;

hedged with:

1.2 units on Aldo/Mendes to Not go the Distance at +145 to win 1.74 units;


Parlay: 6.468 units on Johnson/Belfort To Not Start Round 3 (-131), Aldo/Mendes To Start Round 2 (-892), & Evans/Davis To Not Go the Distance (-165) to win 13.904 units;

Parlay (double): 0.433 units on Belfort by TKO/KO & Aldo by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 4.33 units;

6.47 units on Rumble Johnson by TKO/KO at +315 to win 20.381 units;

0.98 units on Belfort KOTN at +710 to win 6.961 units;

0.1 units on Belfort by Submission at +1050 to win 1.05 units;


1.666 units on Rumble Johnson by Decision at +450 to win 7.497 units;

hedged with:

4 units on Rumble/Belfort To Not Go the Distance at -230 to win 1.739 units;


3.268 units on Palhares SOTN at +450 to win 14.706 units;

0.89 units on Palhares by Submission at +140 to win 1.246 units;

0.653 units on Palhares/Massenzio to be FOTN at +1200 to win 7.841 units;

4 units on Palhares by Decision at +388 to win 15.52 units;

7.499 units on Palhares/Massenzio to Not Go the Distance at -166.67 to win 4.499 units;

1.511 units on Palhares/Massenzio to Not Go the Distance at -120 to win 1.259 units;

1.138 units on Palhares/Massenzio to Finish Under 2.5 Rounds at +110 to win 1.252 units;

2.4 units on Massenzio at +425 to win 10.2 units;


6.481 units on Barboza/Etim to Go the Distance at +140 to win 9.073 units;


Parlay: 3.268 units on Not Tavares Inside the Distance (-381), Silva/Prater to Start Round 2 (-257), Not Massenzio by Submission (-4410), Not Rumble by Submission (-3425), & Not Phil Davis Inside the Distance (-398) to win 4.28 units;


Parlay: 3.268 units on Alcantaro/Omigawa to Start Round 2 (-410), Not Ednaldo Oliveira by Submission (-2135), Not Tavares by TKO/KO (-3085), Silva/Prater to Start Round 2 (-260), Not Massenzio (-5075), & Not Rumble by Submission (-5450) to win 3.049 units;


Parlay: 3.26 units on Silva/Prater to Start Round 2 (-215), Not Massenzio by Submission (-3250), Not Rumble by Submission (-5040), Aldo/Mendes to Start Round 2 (-705), & Munoz/Sonnen to Go the Distance (-230) to win 4.966 units;


Parlay: 1.63 units on Stout (-120), Palhares/Massenzio to Start Round 2 (-210), Aldo/Mendes to Start Round 2 (-705), & Maia/Bisping to Go the Distance (-210) to win 5.805 units;


3.594 units on Gonzaga at -110 to win 3.267 units;


2.5 units on Arantes at +197 to win 4.925 units;


0.64 units on Tavares/Stout to Go Over 2.5 Rounds at +200 to win 1.28 units;


0.722 units on Alcantara by Decision at +175 to win 1.263 units.



A lot of arbs for this card. My personal favourite is risk free play on Barboza/Etim being FOTN at +700 and +600 arbed with Not Barboza/Etim FOTN at -460...will make 8.765 units profit if it is FOTN. Also, arbed out of the 45.7 units that I had on Rumble at +120 with Belfort at Evens at -110 so will make 8.688 units if Belfort wins or 0.02 if Rumble wins. And after one book put the props back up I grabbed Fight to Go Distance at +310 and played fight to not go distance at -200 and -250 so also will make a further 6.985 units if it doesn't go distance or 0.43 units if it does. Also will make 4.303 units if Erick Silva wins by TKO/KO or 0.139 if not. If it goes distance I'll make 2.98 units or 0.068 units if it doesn't. Finally, will make a further 1.768 units if Aldo wins by decision or 0.129 if not. Best of luck all
Last edited by Vaughany; 01-14-12 at 05:57 PM.
#3552

Default

Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Up about 6.1 units so far after Arantes win and Alcantara decision. Parlay with Alcantara/Omigawa starting round 2 also still alive. Jus need Gonzaga to get it done now
I tagged along this event with your picks, as shittier odds of course. I'll put a little more on Gonzaga. O/U 1.5 rounds in your opinion?
#3554

Default

Quote Originally Posted by koscheckbaby View Post
I tagged along this event with your picks, as shittier odds of course. I'll put a little more on Gonzaga. O/U 1.5 rounds in your opinion?
Probly over but no idea really mate! I only played Gonzaga because I knew it wouldnt get better than -110. Wouldnt of played him at much worse than tht, too many unknowns