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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#3211

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Quote Originally Posted by TheCalculator View Post
I record all my conversations with them using Screenflow (for MAC -- you can use Camtasia for PC).

In my enlightening chat with him...

Tony said he doubt that I was honest (with my intentions)... and I asked him why he would say that?

The replied because: he's an asshole and he's the boss.
i have a friend that was kicked out of s dimes(actually 2)......one guy because he called tony "a dispenser of vinegar and water".(if you get my drift).....

if i have a conversation with him,i`ll be sure to mind my manners......

thanks for the help.guys.....much appreciated...
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#3212

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Quote Originally Posted by rocky mattioli View Post
it was a small wager.....it wasn`t with malice aforethought.....anyway,i had an issue with 5 dimes last week in which i felt like i got the shitty end of the stick.....interesting conversation...

*Please wait for a site operator to respond.
You are now chatting with 'Manny'
Manny: Hello. How may I assist you today?
rocky: hi...you guys cancelled one leg of my parlay after it won......it was wager 9--------1....alvarado wins inside the distance.....there was no round limit on the wager...just inside the distance...and alvarado won in the last round......
what`s going on?
Manny: Can you please confirm your account number and password?
rocky: sure...5d------- ....-------05
manny: Just a moment please
manny: It was mistyped, it's a push because there are 10 rounds, not 12.
rocky: it didn`t stipulate whether it was 10 or 12...it said "inside the distance"....and your straight wager on the fight stipulated 10 rounds....and i wagered on it as if it were a 10 rounder.....i would have liked 2 extra rounds,but it wasn`t offered or needed....
manny: Well sir I just checked and that's the situation. Sorry for the inconvenience.
rocky: i`ve been a loyal customer....and i feel as though you did me wrong here.....
Manny: Sorry Sir. I'd love to help you but it is not in my hands. My apologies, have a good night.

rocky:goodnight*

maybe they`ll cut me some slack this time around... or maybe not....obviously,anything that happens is at their discretion....we have no right of appeal...
Tht's bullsh*t...inside the distance is inside the distance! If he'd of won by decision do you think they'd of voided it! I'd of put in a complaint with SBR...depending on how much u lost/stood to won
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#3214

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i`m wondering whether rua might go to a kick-heavy attack here...he`s done it very effectively in some predominantly stand-up fights.....


not as impressed with henderson`s take down ability from outside as some...in a clinch,o.k.,that greco comes into play...but if henderson stands outside with those thin legs and gets continually hammered by the bigger man,he could definitely even out the cardio issue and collapse hendo`s base.....

he`s not gonna walk through rua like he did with bisping...and i totally disagree with mmabetmaster(who i respect) on feijao being better than rua(that one stumped me).....

if this was 3,i`m on rua...but it being 5 and not really knowing how rua approaches this makes it probably a no-go here...


....
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#3215

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Quote Originally Posted by rocky mattioli View Post
i`m wondering whether rua might go to a kick-heavy attack here...he`s done it very effectively in some predominantly stand-up fights.....


not as impressed with henderson`s take down ability from outside as some...in a clinch,o.k.,that greco comes into play...but if henderson stands outside with those thin legs and gets continually hammered by the bigger man,he could definitely even out the cardio issue and collapse hendo`s base.....

he`s not gonna walk through rua like he did with bisping...and i totally disagree with mmabetmaster(who i respect) on feijao being better than rua(that one stumped me).....

if this was 3,i`m on rua...but it being 5 and not really knowing how rua approaches this makes it probably a no-go here...


....
yeah I'd of probably played Shogun by decision if it was a 3 rounder. Really dont know with this one, I see some people saying tht the fight will favour Shogun the longer it goes on. Im not sure about that, unless like you say he uses leg kicks to slow Hendo down and dismantle him round by round. The first Machida fight was the only fight where I haven't seen Shogun gassed out in 3rd or later (obviously the fights he finished in 1st round against Machida, Liddel and Forrest dont count) but even against Coleman which he won he was gassed in the third. I kinda think if he doesnt finish Dan in Rounds 1 or 2 he could be in trouble - and that's not an easy feat against somebody with Henderson's chin. But then Henderson got dropped by Cavalcante - Shogun will probably be more clinical if he catches Dan.
Last edited by Vaughany; 11-19-11 at 01:21 PM.
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#3216

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
yeah I'd of probably played Shogun by decision if it was a 3 rounder. Really dont know with this one, I see some people saying tht the fight will favour Shogun the longer it goes on. Im not sure about that, unless like you say he uses leg kicks to slow Hendo down and dismantle him round by round. The first Machida fight was the only fight where I haven't seen Shogun gassed out in 3rd or later (obviously the fights he finished in 1st round against Machida, Liddel and Forrest dont count) but even against Coleman which he won he was gassed in the third. I kinda think if he doesnt finish Dan in Rounds 1 or 2 he could be in trouble - and that's not an easy feat against somebody with Henderson's chin. But then Henderson got dropped by Cavalcante - Shogun will probably be more clinical if he catches Dan.

this and the cung le/silva fight have me about as confused as i`ve ever been....the reason being,we can`t get inside these guys` heads......if silva stands outside and lets le peck away with all those crazy kicks and quick in-and-out attacks,he`ll take a beating and probably get caught at some point.........if silva decides(rightly,imo) that he has to close distance at any price and can clinch,i think he can rough le up and maybe make him quit late as he gasses......i know le has great throws,but i can`t see le trying to g+p silva...silva has to be on le....the speed difference is ridiculous here...

you just never know what these guys are thinking and whether they`re deluding themselves into thinking they can beat an opponent at his own game.....ala our good buddy kampmann...

just thinking out loud...thanks for humoring old rocky...
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#3218

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Summary of UFC 139 Plays:

Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
UFC 139 plays so far:


Parlay: 10 units on Ben Henderson (-225), Faber (-200), & Mir (-250) to win 20.333 units;


6.117 units on Kampmann at +115 to win 7.035 units;


10.693 units on Weidman/Lawlor to Go the Distance at -170 to win 6.29 units;


2.263 units on Shogun/Hendo to Go Over 1.5 Rnds at -175 to win 1.293 units;


3.78 units on Wanderlei/Cung Le to End by KO at +170 to win 6.426 units;

0.533 units on Wanderlei Silva by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.332 units;


1.302 units on Faber/Bowles to Go the Distance at Evens to win 1.302 units;

1.559 units on Faber/Bowles to Go the Distance at -120 to win 1.299 units;

0.747 units on Faber by Decision at +175 to win 1.307 units;

0.79 units on Faber by Decision at +162.5 to win 1.284 units;

0.17 units on Bowles by TKO/KO at +800 to win 1.36 units;

0.042 units on Bowles KO of the Night at +5000 to win 2.1 units;


6.941 units on Story/Kampmann to Go the Distance at -140 to win 4.95 units*;

0.533 units on Kampmann by Decision at +250 to win 1.332 units;

0.234 units on Story by TKO/KO at +600 to win 1.404 units;


1.921 units on McDonald/Soto to Not go the Distance at -150 to win 1.281 units;


Parlay: 1.582 units on McDonald/Soto to Go Over 1.5 Rounds (-160), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), Not Story by Submission (-1875), Not Cung Le by Submission (-4755), Not Henderson by Submission (-3700), & Jason Miller (+180) to win 6.554 units;


Parlay: 1.583 units on Brown/Baczynski Over 1.5 rounds (-170), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), Not Cung Le by Submission (-4185), & Jason Miller (+180) to win 5.794 units;


Parlay: 1.898 units on McDonald/Soto Over 1.5 Rounds (-160), Weidman by Submission (+275), Not Kingsbu by Submission (-4230), & Not Cung Le by Submission (-4755) to win 10.189 units;


0.1 units on McDonald by Submission at +550 to win 0.55 units;

0.025 units on Soto by TKO/KO at +700 to win 0.175 units;


0.5 units on Tibau by Decision at +140 to win 0.7 units;


0.747 units on Torres by Decision at +175 to win 1.307 units;


0.384 units on Matt Brown by Decision at +350 to win 1.344 units;


0.634 units on Weidman Submission of the Night at +1100 to win 6.971 units;


0.127 units on Bonnar Submission of the Night at +1200 to win 1.521 units;


0.025 units on Wanderlei Silva Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 0.75 units;

0.039 units on Wanderlei Silva Submission of the Night at +2500 to win 0.975 units;


0.064 units on Shogun Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.92 units;


0.085 units on Kampmann Submission of the Night at +1800 to win 1.53 units.
Have a number of arbs to back up some of these plays. Will make 5.113 units if Wanderlei/Cung Le goes the distance or 0.157 if it doesn't - this acts as support in case the fight doesn't end by KO.
Also will make 3.592 units if Lawlor wins or 0.86 units if Weidman wins. Will make 3.254 units if Faber wins by decision, or 2.451 units if he doesn't win by decision. And just got Wanderlei at +156 and Cung Le at -137.5 so will make 6.8 units if Wand wins, or 0.1 units if Cung Le wins. Best of luck all
Last edited by Vaughany; 11-19-11 at 02:16 PM.
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#3225

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Summary of UFC 139 Plays:



Have a number of arbs to back up some of these plays. Will make 5.113 units if Wanderlei/Cung Le goes the distance or 0.157 if it doesn't - this acts as support in case the fight doesn't end by KO.
Also will make 3.592 units if Lawlor wins or 0.86 units if Weidman wins. Will make 3.254 units if Faber wins by decision, or 2.451 units if he doesn't win by decision. And just got Wanderlei at +156 and Cung Le at -137.5 so will make 6.8 units if Wand wins, or 0.1 units if Cung Le wins. Best of luck all
Added more to Wanderlei/Cung Le arb...will make a further 3.139 units if it doesn't go the distance (-275), or 0.08 units if it does.

A Wanderlei TKO/KO would be perfect!
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