Originally Posted by
rocky mattioli
i came across something at 5 dimes that i found interesting...they have a story/kampmann over 2.5 prop along with a story/kampamnn goes the distance prop....i tried parlaying them to see if i could bring the odds into a more favorable light and it actually worked...
so i`m getting kampamnn/story over 2.5(-250) and goes the distance(-185)by basically laying a full 1 unit and getting roughly 1.3(a little less) in return...it`s costing me a half round to get a good deal of value.......of course if someone gets finished in the second half of the 3rd round,i`ll be very unhappy,but it`s basically the same wager...story`s never been stopped(all 4 losses via decision)....kampmann`s been finished twice in the ufc,but via strikes against a huge nate marquardt and the powerful paul daley....his two most recent fights vs grapplers (sanchez and shields) went to decision.....i doubt that story knocks kampmann out via strikes...he can certainly beat him by holding him against the fence and grinding out a decision or grapple-f-cking him...kampmann`s never been submitted and he`s very proficient off his back...and although kampmann has a nice sub game,6 finishes vsa sub in 17 wins isn`t damian maia-esqe....
kampmann can out-strike story,but story`s been in with excellent strikers in his career and neutralized them(alves/foster and ellenberger who have a combined 53 finishes in 63 wins)......
i`ve basically lowered the risk on an outcome that i think is the most likely(i still have a small kampmann wager,probably because i have a thing for the guy and he`s gotten the shaft several times of late)....
something to think about...