I'm big on Munoz to win this fight... but you can't count Leben out in the first couple rounds when he's strongest.
I agree that he will most likely fade after that and Munoz can pour it on.
I like Munoz straight up hedged with Leben by (T)KO in rd1 and rd2.
Nice hedge. Might do the same.Originally Posted by sirchadwick1
I'm big on Munoz to win this fight... but you can't count Leben out in the first couple rounds when he's strongest.
I agree that he will most likely fade after that and Munoz can pour it on.
I like Munoz straight up hedged with Leben by (T)KO in rd1 and rd2.
UFC 138 play:
0.1 units on Thiago Alves by Submission at +1000 to win 1 unit.
Yup --
I knew someone had bet Alves by sub, but I couldn't remember where I saw it. Nice Vaughany.
Great pick V
Whats teh play for 139
Shogun/ Hendo KO of the night
UFC 138 Review:
UFC 138 plays:
Parlay: 10 units on Jon Jones (-400), Cruz (-400), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 13.958 units;
Parlay: 10 units on Koscheck (-333.33), Jon Jones (-400), Cruz (-400), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 21.146 units;
Parlay (double): 10 units on Jon Jones (-400), & Mark Munoz (-187.5) to win 9.167 units;
Parlay: 10 units on P.Thiago (-450), Palhares (-275), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 15.556 units;
0.1 units on Thiago Alves by Submission at +1000 to win 1 unit.UFC 138 play:
3.135 units on Vaughan Lee at +160 to win 5.015 units.
Small play as I think Vaughan should be closer to +125. IMO he has the size and grappling advantage in this one, while Cariaso has a slight striking advantage and a big (and what will perhaps end up being most pertinent in this one) experience advantage.
Total stake: 43.235 units
Return: 100.927 units
Profit: +57.692 units
Record Review:
Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):
Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units
(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):
UFC 130: +45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale: -16.766 units
UFC 131: +17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum: +11.474 units
UFC Versus 4: +25.288 units
UFC 132: +1.783 units
Cage Warriors 43: +1.308 units
Strikeforce: Henderson vs Fedor: +3.274 units
UFC 133: -12.302 units
UFC Versus 5: -5.073 units
UFC 134: -10.214 units
UFC Battle on the Bayou: +20.466
Titan Fighting Championships 19: -1.863 units
UFC 135: +53.938 units
UFC Versus 6: +4.021 units
UFC 136: -33.134 units
Bellator 55: -5.731 units
UFC 137: +4.337 units
UFC 138: +57.692 units
Total profit: +439.986 units
Apologies but didn't get a chance to post anything all weekend. Was at Duncan Trussell and Joe Rogan show on Friday night...both killed it, one of the best stand-up shows I've ever been to, and they hung out backstage after for ages. Some excellent fights as well and made one of my best decisions ever in not hedging the parlays that had Munoz as last leg with Leben by TKO/KO or Leben Ko of the Night. After seeing the blogs and weigh-in I had a feeling Leben was having a tough weight cut and just felt more comfortable as long as Munoz made it out of second round. Have to admit I was worried for a second there tho when Leben got a take-down on Munoz! But Munoz stuck to his gameplan, he punished Leben's body as I thought he would do and feel that significantly contributed to him gassing out in the second round.
Vaughan Lee fight went as I expected - he came out strong using his size advantage to get take-downs and won first round but ultimately Cariaso's experience and a possible adrenaline dump from Vaughan led to Cariaso taking over. Really should of played Etim Sub of Night and Pickett/Barao FOTN as I called them but just wanted to concentrate on the Munoz play. Alves by Sub helped offset the Vaughan Lee loss though. Me and my buddies had some bottles thrown at us when Goodard called off the fight as we were the only ones celebrating Munoz winning!
Leben left this for Munoz at the hotel reception, says "Thank you! I think we put on a grate show, congratulations"! Gotta love Leben!
Keep rocking
That's strong bro! Keep it up!
Yup --I knew someone had bet Alves by sub, but I couldn't remember where I saw it. Nice Vaughany.Cheers fellasGreat pick V
Whats teh play for 139
Shogun/ Hendo KO of the night
Not thought about 139 much to be honest - I think that the majority of fights on this card are quite evenly-matched and tough to call... especially the main card fights..Shogun/Hendo, Cung Le/Wanderlei, Story/Kampmann, Bonnar/Kingsbu and Faber. I guess Hendo/Shogun will be 5 rounds so increases the chances of there being a finish in that one so Hendo KO of the Night might be a play. Either one of Wanderlei and Cung Le also have a strong chance of KO of the Night. I'm more interested in the Bendo/Guida fight this wknd and the TUF Finale card and the UFC 140 to be honest.
Hendo Shogun a 5er??
Assume it will be as Munoz/Leben was 1st one and supposedly every main event will be same from now on (at least for PPVs I guest)
5Dimes has it as a 3 rounder. I'm scared to bet on it in their system cause if they change the rounds -- those "inside distance" wagers are void.Assume it will be as Munoz/Leben was 1st one and supposedly every main event will be same from now on (at least for PPVs I guest)
