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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#2986

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Quote Originally Posted by TheCalculator View Post
Gotta give the guy credit -- he's obviously anti-social (too much herb maybe? lol)... And he's really been getting out there since he lost the title fight. He's playing the UFC beat now folks.
Its not like he missed all of his strikeforce media appearances. Anyway, how many tickets and PPVs do press conferences sell? Nick is becoming a bigger star with his quirks and antisocial behavior. The UFC need to allow him to be an exception to their rules, there was no need to make an example of him. Strikeforce let him get away with it and its not like everyone followed his trend over there.
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#2987

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Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
wow, penn caught him with a left hook. that was sweet. what happened to all the mutual respect?
You mean Diaz? Anyway. it didn't connect. It looked to me like he aimed to miss.

I think Diaz is just one of those guys who needs to dislike his opponent to fight them.
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#2988

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Quote Originally Posted by bogbat View Post
You mean Diaz? Anyway. it didn't connect. It looked to me like he aimed to miss.

I think Diaz is just one of those guys who needs to dislike his opponent to fight them.
If you watch very closely, Penn throws a left hook and it appears to connect. Penn definitely throws a punch but its hard to tell whether he connected or if it was blocked by Diaz' arm and/or Dana White. Take another look. Diaz then reacts with a swipe at Penn, which misses.
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#2990

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Summary of UFC 137 plays so far:


6.479 units on Cerrone at +135 to win 8.747 units;


6.48 units on Palaszewski at +240 to win 15.552 units;

2.451 units on Griffin/Palaszewski to Go the Distance at -187.5 to win 1.307 units;


6.376 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +250 to win 15.95 units;

0.39 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +350 to win 1.365 units;

0.455 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +300 to win 1.365 units;

0.195 units on Nelson by Decision at +700 to win 1.365 units;

0.75 units on Cro-Cop by Decision at +1600 to win 12 units;


Parlay: 2.5 units on Baczynski (-138), Koch (-175), & BJ Penn (-125) to win 9.714 units;


1.778 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance at +150 to win 2.667 units;

0.304 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance at +110 to win 0.334 units;

0.347 units on Diaz by Decision at +400 to win 1.388 units;

0.455 units on Diaz by Decision at +300 to win 1.365 units;

0.394 units on Penn/Diaz FOTN at +350 to win 1.379 units;


Parlay (double): 6.376 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance (-195), & Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance (-210) to win 7.863 units;


Parlay: 6.343 units on Griffin/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-675), Not Siver by Submission (-2120), Not Roop by Submission (-4740), Nelson/Cro-Cop Starts Round 2 (-306), Diaz/Penn Starts Round 2 (-670), & Not Guida Inside the Distance (-1282) to win 6.457 units;


Parlay: 15.5 units on Vera (-370), Griffin/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-650), & Ben Henderson (-230) to win 17.096 units;


Parlay: 3.106 units on Carmont (+115), Vera (-400), Not Cro-Cop by Submission (-5125), & Not Roop by Submission (-5640) to win 5.555 units;


Parlay (double): 5 units on Jacoby (Evens) & Vera (-450) to win 7.222 units;

0.675 units on Starks by Decision at +200 to win 1.35 units;


Parlay (Trebles from 4): 0.4 units on Jacoby by TKO/KO (+250), Nijem/Downs to Go the Distance (Evens), Camozzi/Carmont to Go the Distance (-137.5), & Penn/Diaz to Go Over 1.5 Rounds at +187.5 to win 5.553 units;


0.333 units on Hioki by Submission at +1200 to win 3.996 units;

1 unit on Hioki by Submission at +300 to win 3 units;

0.585 units on Hioki by Submission at +230 to win 1.345 units;

0.833 units on Hioki/Roop to End by Submission at +600 to win 4.998 units;

1.389 units on Hioki/Roop to End by Submission at +225 to win 3.125 units;

1.063 units on Hioki/Roop to Not Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.329 units;

0.1 units on Roop by Decision at +900 to win 0.9 units;

0.043 units on Roop KO of the Night at +3500 to win 1.505 units;


0.1 units on Mitrione/Kongo to be Quickest Ending Fight of the Night at +1400 to win 1.4 units;

0.1 units on Cerrone/Siver to be Quickest Ending Fight of the Night at +1400 to win 1.4 units;
Adding:

4.2 units on Nelson (-220) & Not Hioki by Submission (-180) to win 5.292 units.


Acts as a semi-hedge to my Hioki by Submission plays.
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#2992

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Quote Originally Posted by FindTheLock View Post
is it crazy to think that Roy Nelson will win sub of the night?
Not crazy, may be worth a play at +1500 or better. Im probly gonna play it at +2000 on skybet. Unlikely he'll sub Cro-Cop as no guarantee he can take him down and even once he's down Cro-Cop isnt exactly a novice.
Last edited by Vaughany; 10-29-11 at 03:49 PM.
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#2993

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Adding:


0.667 units on Mitrione KO of the Night at +750 to win 5.002 units;

Also have a risk-free arb which will net me 5.814 units profit if Mitrione/Kongo goes the distance (+215), or 0.219 units profit if it doesn't go the distance (-175).


0.2 units on Nelson Submission of the Night at +2000 to win 4 units.
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#2994

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Summary of UFC 137 plays:


6.479 units on Cerrone at +135 to win 8.747 units;


6.48 units on Palaszewski at +240 to win 15.552 units;

2.451 units on Griffin/Palaszewski to Go the Distance at -187.5 to win 1.307 units;


6.376 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +250 to win 15.95 units;

0.39 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +350 to win 1.365 units;

0.455 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +300 to win 1.365 units;

0.195 units on Nelson by Decision at +700 to win 1.365 units;

0.75 units on Cro-Cop by Decision at +1600 to win 12 units;

0.2 units on Nelson Submission of the Night at +2000 to win 4 units;


Parlay: 2.5 units on Baczynski (-138), Koch (-175), & BJ Penn (-125) to win 9.714 units;


1.778 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance at +150 to win 2.667 units;

0.304 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance at +110 to win 0.334 units;

0.347 units on Diaz by Decision at +400 to win 1.388 units;

0.455 units on Diaz by Decision at +300 to win 1.365 units;

0.394 units on Penn/Diaz FOTN at +350 to win 1.379 units;


Parlay (double): 6.376 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance (-195), & Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance (-210) to win 7.863 units;


Parlay: 6.343 units on Griffin/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-675), Not Siver by Submission (-2120), Not Roop by Submission (-4740), Nelson/Cro-Cop Starts Round 2 (-306), Diaz/Penn Starts Round 2 (-670), & Not Guida Inside the Distance (-1282) to win 6.457 units;


Parlay: 15.5 units on Vera (-370), Griffin/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-650), & Ben Henderson (-230) to win 17.096 units;


Parlay: 3.106 units on Carmont (+115), Vera (-400), Not Cro-Cop by Submission (-5125), & Not Roop by Submission (-5640) to win 5.555 units;


Parlay: 1.55 units on Not Siver Inside the Distance (-675), Hioki/Roop to Go the Distance (+120), Not Filipovic Inside the Distance (-1160), & Not Diaz in Round 1 (-1425) to win 3.001 units;


Parlay (double): 5 units on Jacoby (Evens) & Vera (-450) to win 7.222 units;

0.675 units on Starks by Decision at +200 to win 1.35 units;


Parlay (Trebles from 4): 0.4 units on Jacoby by TKO/KO (+250), Nijem/Downs to Go the Distance (Evens), Camozzi/Carmont to Go the Distance (-137.5), & Penn/Diaz to Go Over 1.5 Rounds at +187.5 to win 5.553 units;


0.333 units on Hioki by Submission at +1200 to win 3.996 units;

1 unit on Hioki by Submission at +300 to win 3 units;

0.585 units on Hioki by Submission at +230 to win 1.345 units;

0.833 units on Hioki/Roop to End by Submission at +600 to win 4.998 units;

1.389 units on Hioki/Roop to End by Submission at +225 to win 3.125 units;

1.063 units on Hioki/Roop to Not Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.329 units;

4.2 units on Nelson (-220) & Not Hioki by Submission (-180) to win 5.292 units (Acts as a semi-hedge to my Hioki by Submission plays);

0.1 units on Roop by Decision at +900 to win 0.9 units;

0.043 units on Roop KO of the Night at +3500 to win 1.505 units;


0.1 units on Mitrione/Kongo to be Quickest Ending Fight of the Night at +1400 to win 1.4 units;

0.667 units on Mitrione KO of the Night at +750 to win 5.002 units;

Also have a risk-free arb which will net me 5.814 units profit if Mitrione/Kongo goes the distance (+215), or 0.219 units profit if it doesn't go the distance (-175);


0.1 units on Cerrone/Siver to be Quickest Ending Fight of the Night at +1400 to win 1.4 units.


Best of luck all
Last edited by Vaughany; 10-29-11 at 04:31 PM.
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