Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Pending parlays going into UFC 137 & UFC 138:


Parlay: 6.427 units on Simpson/Schafer to Go Over 1.5 Rounds (-165), Dawson by Decision (+118), & GSP (-400) to win 21.701 units;

Have the Dawson by Decision leg of the above parlay going down tonight. Have hedged with an arb - Hopkins at +125 and Dawson at -110 so will make just over 6 units profit if Hopkins wins which will almost cover the above parlay stake. So as long as Dawson doesn't win inside the distance I'm good.

Also got an arb on Ruiz/Arce with Ruiz at -120 and Arce at +187.5 - 8.1 units profit if Ruiz wins, 6.1 units if Arce wins. And a sh*t load of arbs on the Cleverly/Bellew fight - will make at least 19.5 units profit as long as fight doesn't end in a draw!

vaughny what you think of bryan rodgers +290 against Alexander Shlemenko for bellator 54?

Originally Posted by reformed

vaughny what you think of bryan rodgers +290 against Alexander Shlemenko for bellator 54?

Havn't seen much footage of Rodgers too be honest so wouldn't like to comment...he might be worth a small play at +300 or better as I dont think the gap between them is that great. Been concentrating on boxing this week and making sure I recoup my losses from last UFC so giving Bellator and M1 Global a miss!

Vaughany, when you find these arb plays, are you working off any sort of spreadsheet/system, or are you purely eyeballing it?

Originally Posted by Das Jax

Vaughany, when you find these arb plays, are you working off any sort of spreadsheet/system, or are you purely eyeballing it?

Just constantly checking sportbet and oddschecker.com every few hours throughout the day!

Impressive! So then the next question is do you really have ten different sport book accounts!?!?!

Originally Posted by Das Jax

Impressive! So then the next question is do you really have ten different sport book accounts!?!?!

At least 10!

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Adding:


20.394 units on Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance at -210 to win 9.711 units.

That was a good buy -- where did you get that one?

At 5 dimes -- that's already at -270.

Originally Posted by TheCalculator

That was a good buy -- where did you get that one?

At 5 dimes -- that's already at -270.

Yeah it was at -270 on 5dimes/Sportbet then went down to -210 for a few hours so grabbed it and then it went straight back up

Hathaway has pulled out of the Brown fight at 138. Was looking forward to getting the Immortal at a generous line.

Vaughany, what do you think about the Cung Le vs Wanderlei Silva fight at UFC 139?

I personally believe that Cung Le will win this fight.

Maybe it's too early to ask you this question since this fight is too far ahead.

Latest Mitrione/McCorkle minute on Helwani's show from a couple weeks ago... funny shiiit!... http://www.mmafighting.com/fighter/m...e/1163/videos/

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Hathaway has pulled out of the Brown fight at 138. Was looking forward to getting the Immortal at a generous line.

Brutal, I had just finished my write-up for that fight. Was expecting a juicy number on Brown as well.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

UFC 139 play:


44.408 units on Weidman at -280 to win 15.86 units.


Have the option of arbing out of this with Lawlor at +333 on William Hill.

nice, glad to see you're on this... weird tho, I have been watching his line and never got him at -280, I got him at -320. Perhaps I missed it... I have a couple str8s on him and also have weidman in a few multi-event parlays.

Originally Posted by v1y

I beg of you, take the arb.

Weidman is one of the most overrated fighters in all of MMA right now.

Lawlor looked solid against aaron simpson, and arguably got robbed. Would you really take Weidman over Simpson at -280?

I'll be making a back up play, but I'm surprised you think he's overrated - I couldn't disagree more. At anything under -350 weidman is a steal against lawlor.

Its not too common (actually, don't know if its happened much at all if ever) for a stand out two time All american D1 wrestler to go to the ADCC and place (let alone almost beat galvao, arguably the best pure sub grappler at that weight) - that is scary. Combined with solid stand up fundamentals (stand up that I think will evolve A LOT over the next couple years), this kid has all the promise of being a champion in the mw division in the next 2-3 years. There is no doubt in my mind that he is probably already the best grappler the ufc has at mw. With some striking growth, the kid will be a stylistic nightmare for most. My only concern is he seems to be a bit small at mw, but I'm sure he might put on a bit of muscle in the next year or two. If he loses to lawlor I will be surprised and sick to my stomach, obviously.

Lawlor is well rounded and tough, but narrowly beating a gassed out atrain (yes I thought lawlor was robbed) is not going to keep me from betting on a guy who will outclass lawlor everywhere this fight goes.