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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#2821

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Quote Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy View Post
Hedging Munoz with Leben KO of the Night?
Yeah at very least. I'm pretty confident his only way of winning is by TKO/KO and combination of it being the main event, first 5round non-title fight, and Leben being the underdog would mean he'd get KO of the Night if he did finish Munoz. But after seeing Sonnen make Stann tap and Edgar finish Maynard I'm slightly more weary about hedges like these! And can't rule out Thiago Alves getting a KO against Papy Abedi, although I think he might look to play it safe and try and use his wrestling that he's been working hard on at ATT. I think Hathaway/Brown, Barao/Pickett and Njokuani/Taylor will go the distance.
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#2823

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I can't believe you chose Stann to defeat Sonnen.
Sonnen always take the fight to the ground against strikers who are not good with submissions.
And I always saw Sonnen as a smart experienced fighter even though he is arrogant. Stann is more inexperienced than Sonnen.

But I see that you were hedging those two fighters. Sonnen to win and Stann by KO would have been the better hedge.

Also, should I take Cro Cop to defeat Nelson? Nelson would be at his best at middleweight. I think Nelson could gas out like he did against Dos Santos with Cro Cop winning by decision.
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#2824

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Quote Originally Posted by GunShard View Post
I can't believe you chose Stann to defeat Sonnen.
Sonnen always take the fight to the ground against strikers who are not good with submissions.
And I always saw Sonnen as a smart experienced fighter even though he is arrogant. Stann is more inexperienced than Sonnen.

But I see that you were hedging those two fighters. Sonnen to win and Stann by KO would have been the better hedge.

Also, should I take Cro Cop to defeat Nelson? Nelson would be at his best at middleweight. I think Nelson could gas out like he did against Dos Santos with Cro Cop winning by decision.
It wasnt about thinking Stann would beat Sonnen...it was about the most likely outcomes and value. It easy to say in hindsight after the fight has happened that Sonnen to win and Stann by KO was the best hedge. But how many times has Sonnen finished a fighter in the WEC or UFC? Moreover, how many times has Stann been finished in the WEC or UFC? I'm sure many will play GSP by decision hedged with Condit straight up (or Condit straight up hedged GSP by decision for better payout), but if GSP goes and chokes Condit out will you be saying after the fight that GSP by decision wasn't the smart play and that people should of played GSP straight up hedged with Condit by TKO/KO?

Nelson would be at his best at MW?! You do realise he's at HW or are you trolling?! I don't think Nelson should be so heavily favoured, but I'd probably only play Cro-Cop by decision. We've seen how good Nelson's chin and resilience is against Mir and Dos Santos, I doubt a tentative Cro-Cop is going to finish him.
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#2826

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
It wasnt about thinking Stann would beat Sonnen...it was about the most likely outcomes and value. It easy to say in hindsight after the fight has happened that Sonnen to win and Stann by KO was the best hedge. But how many times has Sonnen finished a fighter in the WEC or UFC? Moreover, how many times has Stann been finished in the WEC or UFC? I'm sure many will play GSP by decision hedged with Condit straight up (or Condit straight up hedged GSP by decision for better payout), but if GSP goes and chokes Condit out will you be saying after the fight that GSP by decision wasn't the smart play and that people should of played GSP straight up hedged with Condit by TKO/KO?

Nelson would be at his best at MW?! You do realise he's at HW or are you trolling?! I don't think Nelson should be so heavily favoured, but I'd probably only play Cro-Cop by decision. We've seen how good Nelson's chin and resilience is against Mir and Dos Santos, I doubt a tentative Cro-Cop is going to finish him.
Great point about Cro-Cop by decision. Will be signing up for 5 dimes just for that play. Are the payouts reasonably quick there?
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#2827

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Quote Originally Posted by proposition joe View Post
Great point about Cro-Cop by decision. Will be signing up for 5 dimes just for that play. Are the payouts reasonably quick there?
Im yet to do a payout with 5dimes/sportbet as I'd have to do it to my moneybookers account which has been suspended for ages for some random reason. From what I've read elsewhere 5dimes are reasonable with their payouts, depends what method though really. Are u in USA?
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#2828

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
It wasnt about thinking Stann would beat Sonnen...it was about the most likely outcomes and value. It easy to say in hindsight after the fight has happened that Sonnen to win and Stann by KO was the best hedge. But how many times has Sonnen finished a fighter in the WEC or UFC? Moreover, how many times has Stann been finished in the WEC or UFC? I'm sure many will play GSP by decision hedged with Condit straight up (or Condit straight up hedged GSP by decision for better payout), but if GSP goes and chokes Condit out will you be saying after the fight that GSP by decision wasn't the smart play and that people should of played GSP straight up hedged with Condit by TKO/KO?
Yeah, dumbass, obviously best play was Sonnen in round 2 hedged with Stann by Hadoken. Thought you were supposed to be good at this?
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