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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#2296

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Quote Originally Posted by blumpkin View Post
Vaughany.. thoughts on this parlay hettes/miller/dolloway.. pays 115? not sure if i should take dolloway out or not
Im staying away from Dolloway, don't think there is any value in him at current odds. Hamann's first fight at 205 so we don't know what to expect from him. If you have 5dimes/sportbet account IMO you'd be better off putting in a load of very low chance props like "Not Hardy by sub" or something. I also think playin Miller straight up is risky at current odds, fight is likely to go the distance so you're either counting on Miller finishing a very durable Henderson or counting on the judges not screwing Miller over!
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#2300

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Quote Originally Posted by blumpkin View Post
V you keep all of your Volkman bet? More and more i like here in this spot.
Yeah f**k it! I'm gonna ride it out and see what happens, I've got a couple of risk-free arbs as back-up with the Dolloway/Hamman and Sadollah/Ludwig fights so hopefully will make it up if he does lose!
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#2302

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Quote Originally Posted by blumpkin View Post
how is he going to beat volkman? ko? hes not going to out wrestle him.. but its mma and you never know
He should have better striking and better cardio than Volkmann, I guess he could TKO him or keep the fight standing enough and out-strike enough to scrape a decision. Thing with Volkmann is not only is he a high level wrestler but also high level BJJ as well, Castillo has struggled with decent grapplers before like against Roller who I think is overall and inferior grappler to Volkmann. However, Castillo has improved a lot since then and is at his highest confidence ever. Although he beat Joe Daddy soundly, Stevenson was able to toss him around a couple of times, but just couldn't keep him there, he also had a couple of guillotine opportunities during the fight. I don't think Volkmann will have as much trouble as Joe Daddy at keeping Castilllo on the ground for longer periods and even working for a sub.
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#2303

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Summary of UFC on Versus 5 Plays:


10 units on Volkmann at +104 to win 10.4 units;


6.123 units on Oliveira/Cerrone to go the Distance at +140 to win 8.572 units;

2.5 units on Oliveira by Submission at +353 to win 8.827 units;

Will make 6.072 units profit if fight goes distance and 2.704 units profit if Oliveira wins by submission. Lose 8.623 units if Oliveira wins by TKO/KO or Cerrone wins by Submission or TKO/KO.

0.086 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1800 to win 1.548 units;


Parlay: 6.119 units on Figueroa, Cole Miller, & Not Hardy by Submission to win 4.561 units;


1.955 units on Miller/Henderson to Go the Distance at -150 to win 1.303 units;

9.509 units on Miller/Henderson to Go the Distance at -155 to win 6.135 units;

0.478 units on Henderson by Decision at +275 to win 1.315 units;



Parlay: 12.236 units on Sadollah & Schaub to win 12.051 units;


Parlay: 3.097 units on Hettes (-390), Sadollah/Ludwig to Not go the Distance (+115), Not Hardy by Submission (-2000), Schaub Inside the Distance (+133), & Andre Ward by Decision (-185) to win 28.434 units;


0.574 units on Vemola by TKO/KO at +240 to win 1.378 units;


1.5 units on Benevidez/Wineland to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.091 units;


0.2 units on Volkmann by Submission at +550 to win 1.1 units;


Parlay: 3.097 units on Hettes (-390), Sadollah/Ludwig to Not go the Distance (+115), Not Hardy by Submission (-2000), Schaub Inside the Distance (+133), & Andre Ward by Decision (-185) to win 28.434 units;


Parlay: 9.829 units on Not Ludwig by Submission, Not Henderson by Submission, Not Lytle by Submission, Not Pearson Inside the Distance, & Schaub to win 8.993 units;


1 unit on Vemola/Markes to Finish the Quickest at +600 to win 6 units;

hedged with:

1 unit on Vemola/Markes to Go Over 1.5 Rnds at +123 to win 1.23 units.


0.2 units on Volkmann by Submission at +550 to win 1.1 units;


0.065 units on Lytle Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.95 units;


0.087 units on Dolloway Submission of the Night at +2000 to win 1.74 units;


0.065 units on Sadollah KO of the Night at +2500 to win 1.625 units;


0.13 units on Lytle KO of the Night at +3000 to win 3.9 units;

0.175 units on Lytle KO of the Night at +1000 to win 1.75 units;

Parlay: 0.3 units on Volkmann/Castillo Over 2.5 Rnds, Not Ludwig by Submission, & Not Lytle Inside the Distance to win 0.33 units;


0.591 units on Lytle/Hardy FOTN at +230 to win 1.359 units;

0.5 units on Lytle/Hardy FOTN at +225 to win 1.125 units;

0.284 units on Oliveira/Cerrone FOTN at +500 to win 1.42 units.


Risk-free arbs that won't be included on record:

Have arbed out of my Sadollah/Ludwig to not go distance plays with a combination of Sadollah by decision at +125 and Fight to go OVer 2.5 rounds at +131 on pinnacle. So will now make 5.716 units if the fight ends within 2.5 rounds and that doesn't include the potential profit from the above parlay. If Sadollah wins by decision I'll make 0.054 units profit (including the stake in the parlay). If Ludwig wins by decision I'll lose 4.363 units, and if the fight ends after 2.5 rounds then I'll make 28.816 units which would be best case scenario!

Also have a risk-free arb with the Dolloway/Hamann fight. If it goes over 2.5 rnds I will make 13.401 units profit and if it ends inside distance will make 1.26 units. If ends after 2.5 rnds will make 14.661 units profit.

Have a free bet worth 5 units on a double parlay of Hardy/Lytle going the distance and Jim Miller winning by decision which will net me 19.643 units if both come through.

Have also bought back on my Hardy play with 8.1 units on Lytle at Evens. Depending on how the pre-lims go and line-movement I may make a play on Hardy.

Best of luck all...
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#2304

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Summary of UFC on Versus 5 Plays:


10 units on Volkmann at +104 to win 10.4 units;


6.123 units on Oliveira/Cerrone to go the Distance at +140 to win 8.572 units;

2.5 units on Oliveira by Submission at +353 to win 8.827 units;

Will make 6.072 units profit if fight goes distance and 2.704 units profit if Oliveira wins by submission. Lose 8.623 units if Oliveira wins by TKO/KO or Cerrone wins by Submission or TKO/KO.

0.086 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1800 to win 1.548 units;


Parlay: 6.119 units on Figueroa, Cole Miller, & Not Hardy by Submission to win 4.561 units;


1.955 units on Miller/Henderson to Go the Distance at -150 to win 1.303 units;

9.509 units on Miller/Henderson to Go the Distance at -155 to win 6.135 units;

0.478 units on Henderson by Decision at +275 to win 1.315 units;



Parlay: 12.236 units on Sadollah & Schaub to win 12.051 units;


Parlay: 3.097 units on Hettes (-390), Sadollah/Ludwig to Not go the Distance (+115), Not Hardy by Submission (-2000), Schaub Inside the Distance (+133), & Andre Ward by Decision (-185) to win 28.434 units;


0.574 units on Vemola by TKO/KO at +240 to win 1.378 units;


1.5 units on Benevidez/Wineland to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.091 units;


0.2 units on Volkmann by Submission at +550 to win 1.1 units;


Parlay: 3.097 units on Hettes (-390), Sadollah/Ludwig to Not go the Distance (+115), Not Hardy by Submission (-2000), Schaub Inside the Distance (+133), & Andre Ward by Decision (-185) to win 28.434 units;


Parlay: 9.829 units on Not Ludwig by Submission, Not Henderson by Submission, Not Lytle by Submission, Not Pearson Inside the Distance, & Schaub to win 8.993 units;


1 unit on Vemola/Markes to Finish the Quickest at +600 to win 6 units;

hedged with:

1 unit on Vemola/Markes to Go Over 1.5 Rnds at +123 to win 1.23 units.


0.2 units on Volkmann by Submission at +550 to win 1.1 units;


0.065 units on Lytle Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.95 units;


0.087 units on Dolloway Submission of the Night at +2000 to win 1.74 units;


0.065 units on Sadollah KO of the Night at +2500 to win 1.625 units;


0.13 units on Lytle KO of the Night at +3000 to win 3.9 units;

0.175 units on Lytle KO of the Night at +1000 to win 1.75 units;

Parlay: 0.3 units on Volkmann/Castillo Over 2.5 Rnds, Not Ludwig by Submission, & Not Lytle Inside the Distance to win 0.33 units;


0.591 units on Lytle/Hardy FOTN at +230 to win 1.359 units;

0.5 units on Lytle/Hardy FOTN at +225 to win 1.125 units;

0.284 units on Oliveira/Cerrone FOTN at +500 to win 1.42 units.


Risk-free arbs that won't be included on record:

Have arbed out of my Sadollah/Ludwig to not go distance plays with a combination of Sadollah by decision at +125 and Fight to go OVer 2.5 rounds at +131 on pinnacle. So will now make 5.716 units if the fight ends within 2.5 rounds and that doesn't include the potential profit from the above parlay. If Sadollah wins by decision I'll make 0.054 units profit (including the stake in the parlay). If Ludwig wins by decision I'll lose 4.363 units, and if the fight ends after 2.5 rounds then I'll make 28.816 units which would be best case scenario!

Also have a risk-free arb with the Dolloway/Hamann fight. If it goes over 2.5 rnds I will make 13.401 units profit and if it ends inside distance will make 1.26 units. If ends after 2.5 rnds will make 14.661 units profit.

Have a free bet worth 5 units on a double parlay of Hardy/Lytle going the distance and Jim Miller winning by decision which will net me 19.643 units if both come through.

Have also bought back on my Hardy play with 8.1 units on Lytle at Evens. Depending on how the pre-lims go and line-movement I may make a play on Hardy.

Best of luck all...

Couple more parlays that I forgot to add:


Parlay (Trebles from 4 to win): 0.4 units on Volkmann/Castillo to Go the Distance, Dolloway/Hamann to Go the Distance, Lytle/Hardy to Go the Distance, & Sadollah by Submission to win 2.532 units;


Parlay (Doubles from 3 to win): 0.09 units on Oliveira by Decision, J.Miller by Decision, & Lytle/Hardy to Go the Distance to win 0.663 units.
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