Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Originally Posted by rochestertitans

u like jim miller then?

I don't have a play on him, he's a fighter I admire a lot and is the better fighter all round than Henderson. Problem is that this fight is likely to go distance, and I feel Miller is due to be on the wrong end of a close decision, and could well end up being this fight due to how it matches up stylistically. I'd rather not dice with the erratic tendencies of judges by picking either fighter straight-up and instead took Fight to go distance when it first came out at -150 and -155.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

I don't have a play on him, he's a fighter I admire a lot and is the better fighter all round than Henderson. Problem is that this fight is likely to go distance, and I feel Miller is due to be on the wrong end of a close decision, and could well end up being this fight due to how it matches up stylistically. I'd rather not dice with the erratic tendencies of judges by picking either fighter straight-up and instead took Fight to go distance when it first came out at -150 and -155.

Exactly my thinking on this fight, I stay away from most award fight props, but I think this could be fight of the night, or a SLIGHT chance one of them pulls off a sub somehow (because they both have great BJJ, offensively and defensively) it's gonna be tough to top in terms of sub of the night... probably will stay away, or possibly lay a little on Benderson.

V, any thoughts about the Strikeforce Challengers card...I'm staring right at the Villefort line, and need someone who I know knows something to talk me out of throwing him into a parlay with one or more of the fights from the UFC Live 5 card. Nate James is unremarkable in every sense of the word, is 5 years older, and hasn't fought anyone worth anything, and I can throw Villefort in at ~-270 to a parlay...what am I missing here

Funny shit...

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Adding:


10 units on Volkmann at +104 to win 10.4 units.

Think Volkmann will end up favourite and Castillo will be +110 or better underdog so will arb out if this happens.

Castillo now +102 underdog on Pinnacle, was +105

Originally Posted by spargament

Exactly my thinking on this fight, I stay away from most award fight props, but I think this could be fight of the night, or a SLIGHT chance one of them pulls off a sub somehow (because they both have great BJJ, offensively and defensively) it's gonna be tough to top in terms of sub of the night... probably will stay away, or possibly lay a little on Benderson.

V, any thoughts about the Strikeforce Challengers card...I'm staring right at the Villefort line, and need someone who I know knows something to talk me out of throwing him into a parlay with one or more of the fights from the UFC Live 5 card. Nate James is unremarkable in every sense of the word, is 5 years older, and hasn't fought anyone worth anything, and I can throw Villefort in at ~-270 to a parlay...what am I missing here

Yeah spot on, defo a small chance one of them gets a submission, more likely Miller but as you say both have excellent defence.

Not really looked at tht Strikeforce Challengers card, but yeah Villefort at anything better than -300 would be decent parlay material. Nate James is a considerable step down from his last two opponents who he beat - Horwich and Villasenor.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Adding: 8.1 units on Hardy at Evens to win 8.1 units. May well regret this but I'm not ready to give up on Hardy yet! I really don't see Lytle tryin to take Hardy down and not convinced he even could if he tried. Hardy's weakness is the double-leg which GSP and AJ exploited, Lytle is not the type of fighter to shoot a double leg. I'm counting on a combination of Lytle not being 100% and Hardy being smart and throwing a lot of leg kicks at Lytle's dodgy knees and using his reach and size advantage to land more shots standing.

Im also on Hardy, he is younger, faster, have better footwork and cardio. And with that reach advantage I feel he will have the edge if it stays standing even tho Lytle is always a game opponent and no slouch on the feet. You make a good point regarding the double leg TD. Besides Lytle hardly ever shoots for takedowns.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Adding:


10 units on Volkmann at +104 to win 10.4 units.

Think Volkmann will end up favourite and Castillo will be +110 or better underdog so will arb out if this happens.

I like Volkmann to win. Unfortuneately I will not be able to find a prop on Volkmann by SUB as I se him going back to his submission game in this fight. He is pretty crafty with subs, not that we have seen any in his UFC fights yet, but that's how I see it. GL

Adding:


0.2 units on Volkmann by Submission at +550 to win 1.1 units.

Originally Posted by BIGDAY

I like Volkmann to win. Unfortuneately I will not be able to find a prop on Volkmann by SUB as I se him going back to his submission game in this fight. He is pretty crafty with subs, not that we have seen any in his UFC fights yet, but that's how I see it. GL

Got a measly 0.2 units on it at +550 due my limits on paddy. He could latch on to something for sure, Castillo has been caught before by Roller and Cerrone so can't count out Volkmann doing the same.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Adding:


6.202 units on Sadollah/Ludwig to Not go the Distance at +185 to win 11.474 units.

Adding:


Parlay: 3.097 units on Hettes (-390), Sadollah/Ludwig to Not go the Distance (+115), Not Hardy by Submission (-2000), Schaub Inside the Distance (+133), & Andre Ward by Decision (-185) to win 28.434 units.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Added more to this play:


6.201 units on Sadollah/Ludwig to Not go the Distance at +150 to win 9.302 units.


Will be hedging this with Sadollah by Decision when odds are out for that. Would be MEGA shocked if Ludwig won a decision!

Have arbed out of my Sadollah/Ludwig to not go distance plays with a combination of Sadollah by decision at +125 and Fight to go OVer 2.5 rounds at +131 on pinnacle. So will now make 5.716 units if the fight ends within 2.5 rounds and that doesn't include the potential profit from the above parlay. If Sadollah wins by decision I'll make 0.054 units profit (including the stake in the parlay). If Ludwig wins by decision I'll lose 4.363 units, and if the fight ends after 2.5 rounds then I'll make 28.816 units which would be best case scenario!

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Yeah spot on, defo a small chance one of them gets a submission, more likely Miller but as you say both have excellent defence. Not really looked at tht Strikeforce Challengers card, but yeah Villefort at anything better than -300 would be decent parlay material. Nate James is a considerable step down from his last two opponents who he beat - Horwich and Villasenor.

Damnit, why did I have to see this after just finding an earlier post from jesus in his thread saying he wanted to not only pick villefort, but also to do EXACTLY what i was planning on with one of my parlays with healey/villefort for a small play at ~-129. I now have someone whose opinion I find extremely valuable pulling me the same way that..well..jesus is..I calculated that based on my assigning probabilities to each fight to determining the compound probability that the parlay is at a 7% disadvantage (assuming I think Villefort wins 75% of the time and healey wins 66% of the time), but I'm gonna be getting a decent bonus to play the card that would compensate for that deficiency in value (bonus is contingent on a win obviously)..I really don't like to make these types of decisions...and the worst part is I honestly don't feel like this is a no-play scenario.

EDIT: almost immediately after this post i saw money start coming in heavy on Villefort and didn't want to overpay, made a small move on him at -275, I'm looking at it now its -340...healey better not f this up for me

Sorry for the double post; but I just realized I wanted to suggest that you also add NOT Lytle by sub (it's surely better priced than not hardy by sub), because while Lytle has tapped many a man:
A)Hardy is tough as nails, hasn't been subbed in ~6 years,
B)has only been subbed by chokes, never a joint lock
C)Lytle hasn't submitted anyone via choke in ten fights (gotta go back to the Matt Brown fight)
D) It's been almost 7 years since Lytle was consistently choking guys out..from 99-04 he choked 12 guys out

Originally Posted by spargament

Damnit, why did I have to see this after just finding an earlier post from jesus in his thread saying he wanted to not only pick villefort, but also to do EXACTLY what i was planning on with one of my parlays with healey/villefort for a small play at ~-129. I now have someone whose opinion I find extremely valuable pulling me the same way that..well..jesus is..I calculated that based on my assigning probabilities to each fight to determining the compound probability that the parlay is at a 7% disadvantage (assuming I think Villefort wins 75% of the time and healey wins 66% of the time), but I'm gonna be getting a decent bonus to play the card that would compensate for that deficiency in value (bonus is contingent on a win obviously)..I really don't like to make these types of decisions...and the worst part is I honestly don't feel like this is a no-play scenario.

EDIT: almost immediately after this post i saw money start coming in heavy on Villefort and didn't want to overpay, made a small move on him at -275, I'm looking at it now its -340...healey better not f this up for me

haha I think you're be okay, law of averages Jesus is gonna have similar picks sometimes!

Originally Posted by spargament

Sorry for the double post; but I just realized I wanted to suggest that you also add NOT Lytle by sub (it's surely better priced than not hardy by sub), because while Lytle has tapped many a man:
A)Hardy is tough as nails, hasn't been subbed in ~6 years,
B)has only been subbed by chokes, never a joint lock
C)Lytle hasn't submitted anyone via choke in ten fights (gotta go back to the Matt Brown fight)
D) It's been almost 7 years since Lytle was consistently choking guys out..from 99-04 he choked 12 guys out

Yeah for sure, I will be including that in a parlay tomorrow, was just waiting to see if the line improved because I'm thinking some will think Lytle will take Hardy down and submit him for some reason!

You guys are really underestimating the level of Lytle's grappling and submissions. He is very very good.

Lytle sucks and anyone skeptical about Hardy loosing needs to come back to the real world.