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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#1804

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Really liking Cormier, even with the juice. Jeff Monson and his short stubbly arms aren't going to takedown Daniel Cormier and they aren't outstriking him. I feel like Monson is getting too much credit. I read people giving him a chance or calling him by sub. Cormier has an immeasurable wrestling advantage and very likely in the standup too
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#1805

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Quote Originally Posted by koscheckbaby View Post
Really liking Cormier, even with the juice. Jeff Monson and his short stubbly arms aren't going to takedown Daniel Cormier and they aren't outstriking him. I feel like Monson is getting too much credit. I read people giving him a chance or calling him by sub. Cormier has an immeasurable wrestling advantage and very likely in the standup too
As long as Cormier knows how to defend a north-south choke, he isn't getting submitted. Monson is a 40-year-old who is perpetually fighting injured and barely mobile outside of the cage.

In spite of the juice, I actually think Cormier is a good bet too.
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#1810

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Quote Originally Posted by illmatick View Post
haha, yeah Austin Texas. Straight college town

Good city once you get past all the frat boys and hipsters. Heat is brutal right now though. It ruined my beautiful tomato garden. Spent 5 hours plowing that shit.
I spend most of my time between Portland and Seattle now. I keep hearing Austin and Portland have the same kind of vibe, so I've been wanting to head down there and check it out for myself. I had a couple of buddies go down there for SXSW a couple of years ago and they had a great time.
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#1815

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Quote Originally Posted by MMAbetMASTA View Post
These are nice, very likely they will hit. How much do you like cruz to beat faberr in a str8 play? I was surprised the odds are relatively even between these two... Personally, I think cruz is a steal at near even odds, and I think he will soundly beat faber. Who you think wins in general and how confident are you in that pick?

Also, I know I sound like a 'noob' but what is "hedged"????????? Does this mean you are supplementing a play as like a 'fail safe' per se. So if you are putting these units on Kim by decision, would a hedge with a condit str8 bet mean you are protecting yourself to ensure you don't lose money? Sorry if I don't make sense, just curious what hedge means because I see it a lot on here. I have yet to take my stab at prop bets so perhaps it only has something to do with those plays.

Thanks V, cheers dude.
I like Cruz a lot, but I'm a lot more confident of him winning by decision than I am of sub or TKO. If he was at better than evens I'd probly play him straight up but when by decision is available at +170 compared to straight up at -120 I'll happily take my chances that he won't finish Faber.

Regarding "hedged" you're pretty much spot on. If I think in a match-up one fighter only has one main route to victory then I will either play that prop straight-up or play it and hedge with the opponent to win. So take the Pettis vs Guida fight for instance, both Ladle and I thought Pettis had more ways to win the fight than Guida who we thought only had one route to victory (decision) so played Pettis straight-up and hedged it with Guida by decision as we realised that even know we liked Pettis to win there was always a good chance of Guida taking a decision (which quite evidently turned out to be a good decision)! So with these Cruz by decision and Stungun by decision plays I need to decide whether to leave them as they are or whether to take the safer option of hedging Cruz by dec with Faber straight up at +110, or/and hedging Stung Gun by decision with Condit straight up at Evens/+110 or better.
Last edited by Vaughany; 06-16-11 at 08:16 AM.
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