Login Search
Sportsbook Review
SBR Odds
SBR Picks

Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Last Post
#1756

Default

Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
UFC 131 Results:









Review:

Total stake: 50.271 units

Return: 67.959 units

Profit: +17.688 units (excluding risk-free arbs)


With the arbs that I don't include on my record (3 units profit from Elkins winning; and 3.868 units from Ken Flo winning by decision) I made total of 24.556 units.

Also have following parlay outstanding from this event going into UFC Versus 4:

0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

Nice wins man! Great night it seems like for a lot of people on here You kill it with those prop bets!!! I'm gonna start following you on some of those!

I did quite well, too... although very lucky on a couple. Got really lucky on elkins obviously, and munoz/maia was MUCH more close than I thought... I'll eat my words and give my the credit maia deserves for his striking, very impressed. That fight really could have gone either way, so I'm lucky I got that big win. I nearly shit myself in the first round haha.

131 plays:

INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54017789
Jun 11 05:50 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[15502] D ELKINS +220
(M OMIGAWA vrs D ELKINS)

50 / 110

110
WIN
WIN
06/11/2011 05:08 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 53987675
Jun 11 08:05 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2253] C WEIDMAN -340
(C WEIDMAN vrs J BONGFELDT)

340 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
06/10/2011 04:14 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 53998696
Jun 11 10:00 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2233] M MUNOZ -125
(M MUNOZ vrs D MAIA)

875 / 700

700
WIN
WIN
06/10/2011 08:37 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54017728
Jun 11 10:40 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2237] D NUNES +230
(D NUNES vrs K FLORIAN)

50 / 115

-50
LOSE
LOSE
06/11/2011 05:07 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54029025
Jun 11 11:15 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2222] J DOS SANTOS -175
(S CARWIN vrs J DOS SANTOS)

175 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
06/11/2011 10:54 PM
Give Points
Reply with Quote
#1759

Default

Hey Vaughany, I've been following the thread for a few weeks. Your analysis is top notch
I did good on 131 and turned ~80% profit. The early Weidman catch paid off. I didn't know he was fighting again, but that guy has huge potential with his athletic background and training camp. Even at my bad book, I got him at -265 and hit it hard. Took that money and put even more on JDS, and some on Herman. Munoz and Herman won, so I put more on JDS. That was almost a gimme.

I only lost a tiny bet I placed on Edwards. I thought he was a live underdog.
Give Points
Reply with Quote
#1761

Default

Quote Originally Posted by pellibr View Post
Hey Vaughany!

Thanks a lot for your picks last night, I didn`t get the opening lines but I made +7 Units with 20% ROI!! I`ve opened an account at PaddyPower only for your bets, you should receive some bonus of them I wish to give you all my betpoints, (not much) but they say it`s forbidden I don`t know why...

I hope Kongo win next fight to you get all your bets done!!! Again, thanks a lot for sharing, have a nice day and good luck!!
No worries bro, glad you're making profit. I didn't realise Paddy do a referral thing for new members?

Quote Originally Posted by Hannibal View Post
Kongo is -180 now..
You think that will move? I guess if it moves... it will only get worse value for Kongo. But if it stays the same, pinnacle will have reduced juice for Kongo at around -170.
Is it worth the wait to hope for the small percentage difference? or too much risk that value will be lost on Kongo if i dont pull the trigger now.

**** i think i answered my own question.
I'd like to think that Kongo will end up at -200 to -225, but then many people think that Barry is an elite striker and that Kongo will stand with him so it may even improve to -150 or something. I capped it at -200 so was happy to take anything better than that which I have. I also think that there is about an equal chance that Kongo can win this by TKO or decision and even a reasonable chance of a sub so I wouldnt make a play on a prop unless one has ridiculous value.

Quote Originally Posted by rafa martin View Post
well done!!! PERO KE COMPLICATED I do not even see this kongo fights in paddy. the rest is even more difficult to get,,but you excell at this fights bro! but this bookies all you released either lower down odds or do not show the bet,, i admire your patient!!!,,i owe you some drinks at puerto banus if you come down to marbella.
Yes paddy will probably release their Kongo line this week, I expect it will 8/15 or 4/7. As I said below I see value in him at -200 (1/2) or better. I may be heading to Marbella soon, me and my mates are currently in process of booking to go to either Marbella or LA/Las Vegas next wknd for 10 days. Be sure to let you know if Im going Marbella! If not I'll be tryin to get to my buddy's villa in September for a few days or a week.

Quote Originally Posted by MMAbetMASTA View Post
Nice wins man! Great night it seems like for a lot of people on here You kill it with those prop bets!!! I'm gonna start following you on some of those!

I did quite well, too... although very lucky on a couple. Got really lucky on elkins obviously, and munoz/maia was MUCH more close than I thought... I'll eat my words and give my the credit maia deserves for his striking, very impressed. That fight really could have gone either way, so I'm lucky I got that big win. I nearly shit myself in the first round haha.

131 plays:

INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54017789
Jun 11 05:50 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[15502] D ELKINS +220
(M OMIGAWA vrs D ELKINS)

50 / 110

110
WIN
WIN
06/11/2011 05:08 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 53987675
Jun 11 08:05 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2253] C WEIDMAN -340
(C WEIDMAN vrs J BONGFELDT)

340 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
06/10/2011 04:14 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 53998696
Jun 11 10:00 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2233] M MUNOZ -125
(M MUNOZ vrs D MAIA)

875 / 700

700
WIN
WIN
06/10/2011 08:37 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54017728
Jun 11 10:40 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2237] D NUNES +230
(D NUNES vrs K FLORIAN)

50 / 115

-50
LOSE
LOSE
06/11/2011 05:07 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54029025
Jun 11 11:15 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2222] J DOS SANTOS -175
(S CARWIN vrs J DOS SANTOS)

175 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
06/11/2011 10:54 PM
Great job bro, yeah Munoz looked dodgy in first round! He has great recovery tho, regains his equilibrium quickly, was same in Grove fight. I got lucky with Elkins as well, the 30-27 was an absolute travesty!

Quote Originally Posted by scofflaw View Post
Hey Vaughany, I've been following the thread for a few weeks. Your analysis is top notch
I did good on 131 and turned ~80% profit. The early Weidman catch paid off. I didn't know he was fighting again, but that guy has huge potential with his athletic background and training camp. Even at my bad book, I got him at -265 and hit it hard. Took that money and put even more on JDS, and some on Herman. Munoz and Herman won, so I put more on JDS. That was almost a gimme.

I only lost a tiny bet I placed on Edwards. I thought he was a live underdog.
Cheers and good stuff
Give Points
Reply with Quote
#1763

Default

Adding UFC 132 plays:


6.1 units on Dong-Hyun Kim by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units;

Potentially looking to add more to this and hedge with Condit straight-up at Evens or better.


6.1 units on Dominick Cruz by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units.

Again, will be adding more and hedging with Faber at +120.
Last edited by Vaughany; 06-13-11 at 09:10 AM.
Give Points
Reply with Quote
#1766

Default

Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Adding UFC 132 plays:


6.1 units on Dong-Hyun Kim by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units;

Potentially looking to add more to this and hedge with Condit straight-up at Evens or better.


6.1 units on Dominick Cruz by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units.

Again, will be adding more and hedging with Faber at +120.
Beautiful! Pounded both of these lines.

Potential bets of the year in my opinion.
Give Points
Reply with Quote
#1767

Default

Quote Originally Posted by Ladle View Post
Beautiful! Pounded both of these lines.

Potential bets of the year in my opinion.
Yeah both seem pretty solid to me. If I can't get similar lines for Cruz by dec and Stungun by dec on one of the Euro sites then I'll just let these plays ride as they are and not hedge as I'm confident at least one of them hits.
Give Points
Reply with Quote
Back to Forum