Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Originally Posted by rocky mattioli

speaking of finishing,how in the hell did dos santos not finuish carwin?.....he was gone...if dos santos had an ounce of killer instinct,that fight would never had gone the distance.....very similar to his fight with big country.....

yes,he dominated...but when you have a slower guy that beaten down,you take him out.....

just my opinion,but that was disappointing...he fought a very safe rounds 2 and 3...

Yeah very safe indeed, I'm sure there a lot out there who just had plays on Dos Santos by TKO/KO - bet they're are fuming!! When he was pounding Carwin out it was as if he started to feel bad for it and just stopped because the ref didnt stop it!

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Yeah very safe indeed, I'm sure there a lot out there who just had plays on Dos Santos by TKO/KO - bet they're are fuming!! When he was pounding Carwin out it was as if he started to feel bad for it and just stopped because the ref didnt stop it!

It's a three round fight, you want to win but the real goal is to get into the championship fight with Cain. Regardless, you have to be careful fighting Carwin because he has that one punch ko power. He'll put you on queer street in a blink of an eye, just like his fight with Gonzaga.

UFC 131 Results:

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Summary of UFC 131 Plays:


Single straight-up plays:


10 units on Weidman at -225 to win 4.444 units;


2 units on Head at +115 to win 2.3 units;


1.1 units on Beltran at +177.5 to win 1.955 units - (Bought back on the 6.095 units that I had on Beltran at +155 with 7.5 units on Rosa at -150 so now effectively have 1.1 units on Beltran to win 1.955 units (approximately +177.5 odds);


Props and hedges:


12 units on Herman/Einemo Not going the distance at -120 to win 10 units;


5.5 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -110 to win 5 units;

1.611 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -120 to win 1.343 units;

hedged with:

0.5 units on Florian Submission of the Night at +1500 to win 7.5 units;


0.8 units on Dos Santos by TKO/KO at +162.5 to win 1.3 units;

0.5 units on Carwin by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.25 units;


0.6 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 6 units;

hedged with:

1 unit on Not Cerrone Inside the Distance at -128 to win 0.781 units;


0.309 units on Maia by Submission at +450 to win 1.391 units;

0.309 units on Munoz by KO at +450 to win 1.391 units;


1.35 units on Weidman by decision at +193 to win 2.596 units;

hedged with:

1.619 units on Weidman/Bongfeldt Not going the distance at -120 to win 1.349 units;


0.4 units on Stoute/Edwards FOTN at +800 to win 3.2 units;

0.133 units on Florian/Nunes FOTN at +1200 to win 1.596 units;

0.1 units on Cerrone/Vagner Rocha FOTN at +1200 to win 1.2 units;


0.066 units on Poirier Submission of the Night at +2200 to win 1.452 units;

0.05 units on Omigawa Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.5 units.


Pending parlays:


2.5 units on Stephens, Weidman, & Cerrone to win 3.469 units;

0.609 units on Froch by decision, O'Neil/Cope Over 2.5 Rnds, & Poirier to win 1.839 units.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Adding:


0.8 units on Dos Santos KO of the Night at +400 to win 3.2 units;

hedged with:

1 unit on Not Dos Santos Inside the distance at -119 to win 0.84 units.


0.1 units on Poirier/Young FOTN at +1400 to win 1.4 units.


Also have a couple of no-risk arbs that I won't include on my record. Need Florian to win by decision to make 3.9 units (0.1 units profit if any other outcome); Elkins to win to make 3 units (overall stake back if Omigawa wins).

BOL all

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Adding:

Parlay: 0.615 units on Stout/Edwards starts Rnd 3, Cerrone/Vagner starts Rnd 2, & Florian/Nunes starts Rnd 2 to win 0.725 units.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Another last minute parlay before Cerrone/Vagner Rocha starts:

0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

Cerrone notoriously late starter, hopefully keeps that trend going in this one.

Review:

Total stake: 50.271 units

Return: 67.959 units

Profit: +17.688 units (excluding risk-free arbs)


With the arbs that I don't include on my record (3 units profit from Elkins winning; and 3.868 units from Ken Flo winning by decision) I made total of 24.556 units.

Also have following parlay outstanding from this event going into UFC Versus 4:

0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

lol, i thought i had a decent night. V your one of a kind sir and an absolute killer!! keep up the great work sir. well done

Is 1 unit the equivalent of 100$?

Originally Posted by Wrecked

Is 1 unit the equivalent of 100$?

No, £10

Originally Posted by Vaughany

No, £10

Ahhh I see.
Nice wins!

Originally Posted by Wrecked

Ahhh I see. Nice wins!

Why are you here? Go make another fake $1200 bet...

Current plays going in to UFC on Versus 4:


10.062 units on Kongo at -165 to win 6.095 units;

10.976 units on Kongo at -180 to win 6.095 units;

11.885 units on Kongo at -195 to win 6.095 units;

Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;

Parlay: 0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

A lot riding on Kongo! Will also be looking to add Marquardt/Story to decision, Tyson Griffin (but expect him to be over valued), and if available Howard/Brown FOTN but doubt any books will offer these props for Versus.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Current plays going in to UFC on Versus 4: 10.062 units on Kongo at -165 to win 6.095 units; 10.976 units on Kongo at -180 to win 6.095 units; 11.885 units on Kongo at -195 to win 6.095 units; Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units; Parlay: 0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units. A lot riding on Kongo! Will also be looking to add Marquardt/Story to decision, Tyson Griffin (but expect him to be over valued), and if available Howard/Brown FOTN but doubt any books will offer these props for Versus.

lol how worried were you when Maia was tagging Munoz that he might TKO him...I was like wtf?

Originally Posted by Go4theJugular

lol how worried were you when Maia was tagging Munoz that he might TKO him...I was like wtf?

ha yeah tht first round was a bit worrying...he did the stanky leg early on and thought shiiiiiiiiiiit! He's got good recovery though luckily!

Hey Vaughany!

Thanks a lot for your picks last night, I didn`t get the opening lines but I made +7 Units with 20% ROI!! I`ve opened an account at PaddyPower only for your bets, you should receive some bonus of them I wish to give you all my betpoints, (not much) but they say it`s forbidden I don`t know why...

I hope Kongo win next fight to you get all your bets done!!! Again, thanks a lot for sharing, have a nice day and good luck!!

Dude claiming he beat-up Koscheck...

Kongo is -180 now..
You think that will move? I guess if it moves... it will only get worse value for Kongo. But if it stays the same, pinnacle will have reduced juice for Kongo at around -170.
Is it worth the wait to hope for the small percentage difference? or too much risk that value will be lost on Kongo if i dont pull the trigger now.

**** i think i answered my own question.

Originally Posted by Vaughany

Current plays going in to UFC on Versus 4:


10.062 units on Kongo at -165 to win 6.095 units;

10.976 units on Kongo at -180 to win 6.095 units;

11.885 units on Kongo at -195 to win 6.095 units;

Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;

Parlay: 0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

A lot riding on Kongo! Will also be looking to add Marquardt/Story to decision, Tyson Griffin (but expect him to be over valued), and if available Howard/Brown FOTN but doubt any books will offer these props for Versus.

well done!!! PERO KE COMPLICATED I do not even see this kongo fights in paddy. the rest is even more difficult to get,,but you excell at this fights bro! but this bookies all you released either lower down odds or do not show the bet,, i admire your patient!!!,,i owe you some drinks at puerto banus if you come down to marbella.