hapansilakka!
Adding:
0.133 units on Florian/Nunes FOTN at +1200 to win 1.596 units;
0.1 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 1 unit;
0.066 units on Poirier Submission of the Night at +2200 to win 1.452 units;
0.05 units on Omigawa Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.5 units.
Last edited by Vaughany; 06-07-11 at 07:07 AM.
Loving these prop bets Vaughany! I wish I could do this with my bookie, I gotta open an acount online just for these prop bets.Originally Posted by Vaughany
Adding:
5.5 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -110 to win 5 units;
1.611 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -120 to win 1.343 units;
0.684 units on Florian by decision at +200 to win 1.368 units;
0.309 units on Maia by Submission at +450 to win 1.391 units;
0.309 units on Munoz by KO at +450 to win 1.391 units.
Munoz by KO is money at +450!!! I'm calling 1st round KO, can't believe so many people are picking maia, let alone by sub. He's never subbed anyone after 3 minutes in his ufc fights and he couldn't pull the trigger when he had grove and miranda on the ground for the majority of those fights. If he does tie up mark, I think mark will be too powerful physically and can muscle out of hairy spots (and combine that with those bombs he throws from any position, I don't see a sub in this fight).
Who is your outright pick in this fight, Vaughany?
I'm curious because I am thinking I am gonna stack on Munoz for a str8 bet... Poeple are saying its a pick em' and not a good fight to bet str8 on, but I think this will be lopsided and is a perfect style for munoz to beat. I've been wrong before on my big bets, but I think munoz got this
Also liking nunes for the upset, and thinking about a play on aaron rosa over beltran. Haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet tho...
i have weidmain also, bol to us
My outright pick is on Weidman but I got him at -225, wouln't take him straight up at worse than -225 tho.Loving these prop bets Vaughany! I wish I could do this with my bookie, I gotta open an acount online just for these prop bets.
Munoz by KO is money at +450!!! I'm calling 1st round KO, can't believe so many people are picking maia, let alone by sub. He's never subbed anyone after 3 minutes in his ufc fights and he couldn't pull the trigger when he had grove and miranda on the ground for the majority of those fights. If he does tie up mark, I think mark will be too powerful physically and can muscle out of hairy spots (and combine that with those bombs he throws from any position, I don't see a sub in this fight).
Who is your outright pick in this fight, Vaughany?
I'm curious because I am thinking I am gonna stack on Munoz for a str8 bet... Poeple are saying its a pick em' and not a good fight to bet str8 on, but I think this will be lopsided and is a perfect style for munoz to beat. I've been wrong before on my big bets, but I think munoz got this
Also liking nunes for the upset, and thinking about a play on aaron rosa over beltran. Haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet tho...
I lean towards Munoz, and waiting to see how the line moves as I'm anticipating Maia ending up slight favourite come fight time, could be wrong tho. Munoz has been rolling with guys tht have beaten Maia in BJJ competition and he is gonna have a size and power advantage but I still can't rule out Maia subbing him. Maia didn't have any intention of subbing Dan Miller as he wanted to keep it standing and prove his improvements in stand-up. And Miranda and Grove are black-belts with considerable experience (Miranda has never been subbed in MMA competition and Grove has never been subbed in UFC) so wasn't goin to be easy to sub either of them. The Sonnen take-down and subsequent submission is understandably being referred to a lot in pro-Maia arguments. However, I guess one may argue that Maia didn't have to worry about the striking or power of Sonnen so wasn't concerned about getting close and clinching with him, against Munoz he'll have to be weary of gettin blasted when he gets in to range. That's why I expect to see Maia get low as possible and go for the single or pull guard like he did early on against Sonnen. Very interesting fight though
Last edited by Vaughany; 06-08-11 at 06:22 AM.
Adding:
0.133 units on Florian/Nunes FOTN at +1200 to win 1.596 units;
0.1 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 1 unit;
0.066 units on Poirier Submission of the Night at +2200 to win 1.452 units;
0.05 units on Omigawa Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.5 units.
Adding another 0.5 units to Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 so have:
0.6 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 6 units;
Hedged with:
1 unit on Not Cerrone Inside the Distance at -128 to win 0.781 units.
So as long as Cerrone doesn't win by submission I won't lose anything (will make 5 units if he does win by TKO/KO. Happily risk 1.6 units on Cerrone not winning by submission against a decent black belt in Vagner Rocha. Some Euro bookies have Cerrone by submission as the most likely outcome with Ladbrokes having him at Evens to win by sub! Firstly, Cerrone comes from a kick-boxing/Muay Thai back ground and he has said numerous times that he prefers to keep it standing and strike with opponents and look for the knockout rather than going to the ground. He said after the Kelly fight that he is getting frustrated with his failure to knock guys out and that although it's obviously not a bad thing that he's choking dudes out, it is something that he wanted to work on and get back to in the future (again this is because striking is his roots). And now we have a fight against a guy with limited striking and high-level BJJ in Vagner Rocha that could be a perfect opportunity and even a showcase for Cerrone to use to conquer this frustration and I think he'll have this notion in his head. Also, Greg Jackson will undoubtedly instruct Cerrone to keep it standing and play to his main advantage in the fight which is undoubtedly in the stand-up.
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, Cerrone has never faced a legit BJJ black-belt before. Have a look at Cerrone's list of opponents, they are predominantly strikers (or at least guys that like to stand and bang) and again, this is because Cerrone is primarily a striker and it made sense for WEC/UFC to match him up against other strikers such as Radcliffe, Horodecki, Kelly, and McCullough. Now don't get me wrong, choking out and arm-barring guys like Njokuani, Ratcliff, Horodecki, Kelly and Krause is very impressive, however, the most threatening grappler and BJJ guy that Cerrone has probably faced is Ben Henderson and he lost a decision and then got choked out in the first round in the re-match.
I think a Cerrone decision is the most likely outcome as I'm still not convinced that he has the necessary striking power to finish Vagner with strikes. I wouldn't rule out a submission, of course Cerrone is always going be a submission threat against anybody, he has great hips and an aggressive guard, plus he could quite feasibly damage Vagner with strikes and then finish with a rear-naked or something. Nonetheless, I think tht the difference in odds between Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 and Cerrone by Submission at Evens is totally ridiculous and will happily try and exploit that with this hedge!
Last edited by Vaughany; 06-08-11 at 03:28 PM.
Someone awarded Grove a bb?
+1000 on Cerrone by TKO??? Wow, I think it's a good possibility that this hits and that's solid value.
Seriously, that could be a bad line.+1000 on Cerrone by TKO??? Wow, I think it's a good possibility that this hits and that's solid value.
Have you seen a line on the Omigawa, ring, or new line on the Sozynski fight yet?
Don't think so, it came out at +1000 on Paddypower on Monday (down to +700 currently), then Ladbrokes brought it out at +1000 today as well. Eurobooks just seem very confident that he's gonna submit or decision Vagner!Seriously, that could be a bad line.
Thanks for the info here. Ladle once again sorry about the misspelling and mispronunciation.
thanks vaugh. A made a blue print of that bet.
Wasnt everybody just ripping on Ghost Kid for saying Cerrone ko?
Nah they're takin the piss, taking ages to release them! Im hopin to get Head at a generous opener but they could release them at any time over next 24hrs.Have you seen a line on the Omigawa, ring, or new line on the Sozynski fight yet?
