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Vaughany's MMA Picks...

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#1546

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Summary of UFC 130 Plays:

Not going to include my risk-free arbs from now on, only got one on the go tonight in main event - need Rampage to win by decision in order to make 5.585 units profit, and will make 0.346 units if any other outcome. Made just over 13 units from Thompson TKO'ing Harris last night so happy to take a few more risks tonight with 130...(may add a couple more before first fight)...


Single outright plays:

6.124 units on Travis Browne at +130 to win 7.961 units;


4 units on Stann at +110 to win 4.4 units;


Parlay:

5 units on Tibau, McDonald, & Barao to win 6.523 units;


Prop plays:

6.445 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -162.5 to win 3.966 units;

11.7 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -187.5 to win 6.24 units;


1.365 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at Evens to win 1.365 units;

0.824 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at -120 to win 0.687 units;

0.39 units on Rampage KO of the Night at +750 to win 2.926 units;


6.875 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at -137.5 to win 5 units;

1.982 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at Evens to win 1.982 units;

3.556 units on Alves by decision at +225 to win 8 units;

0.427 units on Alves by decision at +162.5 to win 0.694 units;

1 unit on Alves/Story FOTN at +900 to win 9 units;


0.8 units on Nelson by TKO/KO at +500 to win 4 units;


0.2 units on Stann by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.5 units;

1 unit on Stann KO of the Night at +850 to win 8.5 units;


3.174 units on Torres/Johnson to go the distance at -120 to win 2.645 units;

1 unit on Torres/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +750 to win 7.5 units;


2.5 units on Any non-main card fighter getting Submission of the Night at +200 to win 5 units;


0.672 units on Renan Barao by Submission at +200 to win 1.344 units;


0.216 units on McDonald by Submission at +650 to win 1.404 units;


0.1 units on Boetsch KO of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units;


0.05 units on Browne Submission of the Night at +3300 to win 1.65 units.
Adding following parlays:

3.031 units on Tibau, McDonald, Not Boetsch by Submission, Johnson/Torres starts Rnd 2, Not Stann by Submission, Nelson/Mir starts Rnd 2, & Not Hamill by TKO/KO to win 5.603 units;

3.031 units on McDonald, Not Johnson by TKO/KO, Not Story inside the distance, Not Mir wins in Rnd 1, & Not Hamill inside the distance to win 2.416 units.

Good luck all
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#1552

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Great job, V. Excellent work, man. Glad to see you making some profits on the event.

Because Mir/Roy dragged me down, I barely won money. Lucky to get out of this one alive, feels like. Glad Browne and Boetsch won, they saved me from a disaster. Wish I bet them larger, and Roy smaller.

I feel as if this event was a great opportunity to make good money because there were an unusually large amount of fights with very close odds. Hitting a few of those pays off very well........but despite all that damn time I spent on Roy/Mir, that opportunity was squandered because of the errors in my analysis and reasoning. That fight bummed me.

Well, gonna get to work on these next several events. See ya on here soon, man.
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#1553

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Quote Originally Posted by LayingThe$Down View Post
Great job, V. Excellent work, man. Glad to see you making some profits on the event.

Because Mir/Roy dragged me down, I barely won money. Lucky to get out of this one alive, feels like. Glad Browne and Boetsch won, they saved me from a disaster. Wish I bet them larger, and Roy smaller.

I feel as if this event was a great opportunity to make good money because there were an unusually large amount of fights with very close odds. Hitting a few of those pays off very well........but despite all that damn time I spent on Roy/Mir, that opportunity was squandered because of the errors in my analysis and reasoning. That fight bummed me.

Well, gonna get to work on these next several events. See ya on here soon, man.
Cheers bro

Bad luck with the Nelson bet. One thing I've learnt with Mir is that he's very hard to predict and cap so I try to avoid betting any fights involving him! Against Cro-Cop his take-downs were poor, it didn't seem like he could explode enough and finish his attempts, and now suddenly he was able to take Nelson down with ease. I think Nelson's dodgey knees helped with tht but still I didn't expect Mir to be able to take down Nelson at will like he did. Still, plenty of events coming up to make up for tht loss
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#1555

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Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Summary of UFC 130 Plays:

Not going to include my risk-free arbs from now on, only got one on the go tonight in main event - need Rampage to win by decision in order to make 5.585 units profit, and will make 0.346 units if any other outcome. Made just over 13 units from Thompson TKO'ing Harris last night so happy to take a few more risks tonight with 130...(may add a couple more before first fight)...


Single outright plays:

6.124 units on Travis Browne at +130 to win 7.961 units;


4 units on Stann at +110 to win 4.4 units;


Parlay:

5 units on Tibau, McDonald, & Barao to win 6.523 units;


Prop plays:

6.445 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -162.5 to win 3.966 units;

11.7 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -187.5 to win 6.24 units;


1.365 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at Evens to win 1.365 units;

0.824 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at -120 to win 0.687 units;

0.39 units on Rampage KO of the Night at +750 to win 2.926 units;


6.875 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at -137.5 to win 5 units;

1.982 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at Evens to win 1.982 units;

3.556 units on Alves by decision at +225 to win 8 units;

0.427 units on Alves by decision at +162.5 to win 0.694 units;

1 unit on Alves/Story FOTN at +900 to win 9 units;


0.8 units on Nelson by TKO/KO at +500 to win 4 units;


0.2 units on Stann by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.5 units;

1 unit on Stann KO of the Night at +850 to win 8.5 units;


3.174 units on Torres/Johnson to go the distance at -120 to win 2.645 units;

1 unit on Torres/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +750 to win 7.5 units;


2.5 units on Any non-main card fighter getting Submission of the Night at +200 to win 5 units;


0.672 units on Renan Barao by Submission at +200 to win 1.344 units;


0.216 units on McDonald by Submission at +650 to win 1.404 units;


0.1 units on Boetsch KO of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units;


0.05 units on Browne Submission of the Night at +3300 to win 1.65 units.
Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Adding following parlays:

3.031 units on Tibau, McDonald, Not Boetsch by Submission, Johnson/Torres starts Rnd 2, Not Stann by Submission, Nelson/Mir starts Rnd 2, & Not Hamill by TKO/KO to win 5.603 units;

3.031 units on McDonald, Not Johnson by TKO/KO, Not Story inside the distance, Not Mir wins in Rnd 1, & Not Hamill inside the distance to win 2.416 units.
UFC 130 Results (excluding arbs):

Total stake: 65.462 units

Return: 110.539 units

Profit: +45.077 units
Last edited by Vaughany; 05-28-11 at 11:56 PM.
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#1558

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Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
Very well done again. I thought you might have been in trouble when Struve locked up that Anaconda choke.
Cheers bro! I wasn't too concerned, always confident that Browne would be able to deal with Struve on the ground, was more worried with McDonald almost losing against Cariaso due to his inexperience! My profits would of been halved if he'd not got the win.
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