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#4591

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Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
If you have x% edge over several hundred trials your results should converge pretty well, if you're not overbetting.
In math and statistics, yes. But this is fighting with so many other factors. Just because fighter A is given a line that says he wins 60% of the time, doesn't mean it averages out that he wins 60% of the time in that fight.

I'm not trying to prove you wrong or anything, you know way more than I do. I'm just saying you still have to pick the winner of the fight.
Last edited by The HOFF; 02-21-12 at 05:57 PM.
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#4592

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Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
In math and statistics, yes. But this is fighting with so many other factors. Just because fighter A is given a line that says he wins 60% of the time, doesn't mean he it averages out that he wins 60% of the time in that fight.
I'm not talking about the edge in the individual fight, sorry I didn't make that clear. I mean in this instance V's overall edge as a handicapper.

If after say 500 events you show an ROI of 5%. And there has been no significant changes in the overall market, you can be pretty sure that your true ROI is very close to 5% and you will likely continue down that path.
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#4593

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Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
Did you see me talking about getting good lines or arbing against guys he's confident in? Think before you say anything. Seriously.
Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
BTW- if he didn't arb, his total profits would be a lot more than that
If he didn't arb, he would have plays on every fighter with a soft line. How do you know he would profit more than he has? All the fighters with a soft line would have to win.
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#4595

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Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
If he didn't arb, he would have plays on every fighter with a soft line. How do you know he would profit more than he has? All the fighters with a soft line would have to win.
Allow me to repeat myself: I was talking about arbing against fighters he's confident in, not every line he has no feel for. If he see's value in a line in a fight he has no opinion of and he knows he could arb out by fight time, then it would be smart for him to bet that line and arb... that's not what we're discussing, we're discussing arbing against fighters he believes will likely win.

Repeated myself twice, just to make sure you got it this time.
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#4596

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Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
If he didn't arb, he would have plays on every fighter with a soft line. How do you know he would profit more than he has? All the fighters with a soft line would have to win.
That's not true.

Easy example.

Guy A is rolling a 10-sided die, he says he'll give you +1000 if it lands on the 8. Guy B comes up and says he'll take -950 on it not landing on the 8. They are willing to play this game 1000 times.

We have an easy arb here by betting $1 with guy A and $9.95 with B each throw of the dice. Over 1,000 trials we will gain exactly $50. With zero risk!

However, if we were to only bet $1 with guy A on each throw, we expect to win 100 of the trials for $100 profit. We have doubled our income and lost 90% of the time.

What happened to the $50?
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#4597

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All the fighters with a soft line wouldnt have to win...but they'd have to be winning according to the lines they have been capped at.

With a 10 sided dice the odds are always 1 in 10, but when it comes to a fight can you really be sure its capped correctly? that fighter A is really going to win X% of times over fighter B? I think when there is uncertainty, the free money or even just the free play on the soft side can have its merits.
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#4600

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Quote Originally Posted by Hannibal View Post
With a 10 sided dice the odds are always 1 in 10, but when it comes to a fight can you really be sure its capped correctly? that fighter A is really going to win X% of times over fighter B? I think when there is uncertainty, the free money or even just the free play on the soft side can have its merits.
This is what I'm kind of trying to say. But again Nunya, you know more than I do.
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#4601

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Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
But again we're back to mathematics and not an individual breakdown of each fight. There is no set probability in a given fight. A coin flip will average 50/50 over the course of so many flips. But that doesn't happen with fights. There is a chance that he could lose every MMA bet he makes.

I agree. The mathematics is one thing, but there is no set probability in a given fight.
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#4602

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Quote Originally Posted by Hannibal View Post

With a 10 sided dice the odds are always 1 in 10, but when it comes to a fight can you really be sure its capped correctly? that fighter A is really going to win X% of times over fighter B? I think when there is uncertainty, the free money or even just the free play on the soft side can have its merits.

No, you can't be sure that its capped correctly, but if I've got a 5% ROI over $1,000,000 in churn in the same market, I can be confident that my edge is significant. Whether or not you win an individual bet is immaterial.
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