Why?Originally Posted by KingHawkins
Marlon Moraes max bet 4 figures for me. Getting offered -115 now, but closer to fight I should get even or plus money. I'm seeing large majority of action on Dodson.
I disagree on Nate actually. In 11 UFC fights, he has never finished anyone by strikes and has only subbed 2 guys with awful ground games (Hermanson and Thiago Santos). These guys both fight very careful now since realizing they can't take the big shots anymore (or any shot with Ferreira). Even money this fight goes to decision is low to me. Whoever can keep the acting going will win a decision here IMO. When you get beat by Elias like Ferreira just did, you are either too low work rate wise or don't have good cardio. Ferreira's work rate is low because he's scared to death to take a punch. With Nate, he'll be even more scared while Nate survived with Alvey (awful fight) and Belfort last time out. +246 on Nate NO CARDS is very tempting to me.I think you gotta fade Nate Marquart and Arlovski.. Both washed up now and on the verge of being cans.. Both probably lose ITD as well..
I wish I could write out a convincing argument, but basically, I think it is a good matchup for Moraes, if they stand and throw, I think he has a nice advantage. If Dodson shoots, which I don't even know that he will in his gameplan, I think Moraes gets the stuffs, or at least can get back up if he does get taken down, although I do see that as unlikely. I think Moraes wanted to be in the UFC badly, had a super tough matchup his first opportunity, and he makes up for that tough decision loss with a convincing win tonight. I think he gets it ITD, but maybe by UD.Why?
And also it may be stupid, but I like the line holding firm despite majority of action on John.
Added another unit on a parlay
+133
Brown ITD
Strickland NO CARDS
Very possible but I like the value. He has had big rounds in recent fights (i.e. the Ray fight) without getting a finish.This is a definite possibility. Don't you think if Lauzon really dominated the first that badly, he will prob get the finish?
Why were you doing security?It's just 1 toe lol. I dislocated 3 of my toes in the cage once and one also broke all from a stupid foot stomp. It probably won't even affect your job? I had to do security while wearing this big frankenstein boot looking thing. You're acting like matt hammil from ultimate fighter season 3 when he finally hot hit in the head and kept asking people to make him sandwiches and wouldn't leave his bed.
Why can't you take Ansaroff ML? I think ITD is a likely path to victory, especially by sub.What about Lopez as a live dog? Turbo mentioned Ansaroff earlier but Lopez's number is much better. I think the two of them have a solid shot. Is everyone scared to bet against Assuncao? Lopez's wrestling pedigree and gas tank are huge weapons against a guy that rarely finishes anymore and has made his living off of razor thin decisions recently.
Ansaroff by dec could be ok for a small stab at +300 but I can't take her straight at +160.
Good to knowNot sure if this will matter much, but Virginia may not have adopted the new ruleset yet:
https://www.mmafighting.com/2016/12/...-unified-rules
Can Marquardt win by anything other than KO?Think I'm going to round robin this card. Have the following that I like so far. May take Marquardt ML out for something else and do a bunch of round robins for those plays.
Arlovski/Albini OVER 1.5 (+152)
Marquardt (+250)
Dodson by DEC (+177)
Suarez ML (-300)
Northcutt/Quinones OVER 1.5 (-172)
Hill/Ansaroff OVER 2.5 (-260)
Best of luck tonight!Risked 5.25 units to win 2.5 Karl Roberson -210 vs Darren Stewart
Risked 5.3 units to win 2Tatiana Suarez -265vs Viviane Pereira
Risked 5.5 units to win 5Clay Guida -110vs Joe Lauzon
Risked 0.25 units to win 0.6Nate Marquardt +240vs Cezar Ferreira
Risked 1 unit to win 2.2Andrei Arlovski +220vs Junior Albini
Risked 4.35 units to win 3UNDER 2.5 -145vs Matt Brown
Risked 5 units to win 5.25Dustin Poirier +105 vs Anthony Pettis
I like that better than Nate ML since Ferreira is much more likely to win a decision imoI disagree on Nate actually. In 11 UFC fights, he has never finished anyone by strikes and has only subbed 2 guys with awful ground games (Hermanson and Thiago Santos). These guys both fight very careful now since realizing they can't take the big shots anymore (or any shot with Ferreira). Even money this fight goes to decision is low to me. Whoever can keep the acting going will win a decision here IMO. When you get beat by Elias like Ferreira just did, you are either too low work rate wise or don't have good cardio. Ferreira's work rate is low because he's scared to death to take a punch. With Nate, he'll be even more scared while Nate survived with Alvey (awful fight) and Belfort last time out. +246 on Nate NO CARDS is very tempting to me.
I just think it's pretty much accurate and not much value there.Why can't you take Ansaroff ML? I think ITD is a likely path to victory, especially by sub.
Fair enoughI just think it's pretty much accurate and not much value there.
I'm thinking the same.. Moraes by decision over Dodson for me... Better striker technically.. Should begin to pick Dodson apart... Dodson hard to finish so it probably goes the distance..Marlon Moraes max bet 4 figures for me. Getting offered -115 now, but closer to fight I should get even or plus money. I'm seeing large majority of action on Dodson.
Points Awarded:
Hugo de Naranja gave JIBBBY 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Agreed. I think if Moraes can avoid the KO shot, he out-points Dodson with volume.I'm thinking the same.. Moraes by decision over Dodson for me... Better striker technically.. Should begin to pick Dodson apart... Dodson hard to finish so it probably goes the distance..
