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UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley (July 30, 2016)

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#802

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Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
Nice to grind out a profit (mostly due to Karolina) in an event where 2 of three of my five most confident picks didn't cash (Lawler, Brown, Graves)
A win is a win in the end! I regret not taking the value on KK, just really like both fighters and let the fan in me not allow me to make any bets on it. Nice man, you're consistent!
#804

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Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
For those that don't already have a bet on the main event, you might want to consider this strategy:

Pre-Fight Bet:
Woodley Rd 1 for 2 units (ASAP for best price)
Woodley Rd 2 for 1 unit (ASAP for best price)
Lawler -5.5 for 2 units (Right before weigh-ins for best price)

Live Bet:
Lawler after Rd 1 if he lost the round but the fight is still going on. Lawler after Rd 1 will almost certainly be +odds
Lawler after Rd 2 if he is still plus odds

Unless one of these fighters has completely changed since their last appearance, this fight will likely be won by Woodley early or Lawler late when Woodley runs out of gas. If Woodley wins in Round 1, you will profit about 8u. If he wins in Round 2, you will profit about 6u. If Lawler wins in the first 2 rounds, you will break even. Now if Lawler survives the first 2 and you live bet him at +odds there is a high chance he comes back and wins by late finish and possibly decision which would cash both live bets and likely the -5.5 bet as well.
Out of curiosity, did anyone use the strategy I suggested a few days ago?