UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit (January 02, 2016)

Originally Posted by brooks85
Saturday just needs to get here.

Condit/lawler need to makeup for the month of December and the huge main event letdowns of aldo/connor and rda/cerrone.

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Agreed this down time is making me over cap and over think some of these fights. Ready for this event to crank up already.. Got another week..

I guess I'm gonna cap that chick fight on this card and be done with it.. That's the last fight on this card that I haven't touched yet...

UFC 195 - Strawweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1
Sat 1/2		1701 Justine Kish		-265	o2½ -230
8:30PM		1702 Nina Ansaroff		+225	u2½ +190

props -

Justine Kish vs Nina Ansaroff - Strawweight 3 rounds - UFC 195 propositions
Sat 1/2		1703 Kish / Ansaroff goes 3 round distance		-195
8:30PM		1704 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		+155
Sat 1/2		1705 Kish wins inside distance		+306
8:30PM		1706 Not Kish inside distance		-396
Sat 1/2		1707 Kish wins by 3 round decision		-109
8:30PM		1708 Not Kish by 3 round decision		-121
Sat 1/2		1709 Ansaroff wins inside distance		+485
8:30PM		1710 Not Ansaroff inside distance		-760
Sat 1/2		1711 Ansaroff wins by 3 round decision		+451
8:30PM		1712 Not Ansaroff by 3 round decision		-676
Sat 1/2		1713 Kish / Ansaroff draw		+16500
8:30PM		1714 Fight not a draw		-49500
Sat 1/2		1715 Kish wins in round 1		+575
8:30PM		1716 Any other result		-1125
Sat 1/2		1717 Kish wins in round 2		+775
8:30PM		1718 Any other result		-1625
Sat 1/2		1719 Kish wins in round 3		+1375
8:30PM		1720 Any other result		-3425
Sat 1/2		1721 Ansaroff wins in round 1		+925
8:30PM		1722 Any other result		-1875
Sat 1/2		1723 Ansaroff wins in round 2		+1225
8:30PM		1724 Any other result		-2675
Sat 1/2		1725 Ansaroff wins in round 3		+2125
8:30PM		1726 Any other result		-6375
Sat 1/2		1727 Kish wins by submission		+700
8:30PM		1728 Any other result		-1500
Sat 1/2		1729 Kish wins by TKO/KO		+405
8:30PM		1730 Any other result		-615
Sat 1/2		1731 Ansaroff wins by submission		+1170
8:30PM		1732 Any other result		-2510
Sat 1/2		1733 Ansaroff wins by TKO/KO		+675
8:30PM		1734 Any other result		-1425
Sat 1/2		1735 Kish / Ansaroff starts round 3		-266
8:30PM		1736 Fight won’t start round 3		+206
Sat 1/2		1737 Kish / Ansaroff starts round 2		-560
8:30PM		1738 Fight won’t start round 2

These tiny straw weights probably go the distance as they usually do at the -195 prop odds.. Play it a little safer and go with the O2.5 at -230 seems like a solid bet for a parlay leg..

How someone can say robbie has better top control then hendrix or gsp I don't know. GSP and hendrix have been subbed once combined, that's their world, they have more time on top of people with less sub defeats,robbie is more reckless from the top position,...without a doubt, if this fight goes to the ground, robbie will be subbed or he will be swept and be on bottom.

Originally Posted by JoshKnows46

without a doubt, if this fight goes to the ground, robbie will be subbed or he will be swept and be on bottom.

1035 Condit wins by submission

+601

I really like Stipe this weekend.. I dunno how he wins.. but he does.

You,d have to be a pretty big nut hugger to believe robbie can roll around on the ground with condit. Robbie wouldn't dare attempt a takedown, that's what makes this fight so easy to predict, because condit knows he doesn't have to worry about the takedown, he can let his punches, kicks, knees and elbows go without having to re set for a possible takedown attempt, robbie will find it hard to get much off on condit, robbie either gets kod or subbed, and if not, he loses a decision. He can't win a decision against condit and he can't ko him. He def can't sub him.

Fight is very similar to the diaz Johnson fight in makeup, exept it's 5 rounds.

Originally Posted by UncleChael

I really like Stipe this weekend.. I dunno how he wins.. but he does.

AA has just been winning and knocking people out cold since his long string of wins began.....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Andrei-Arlovski-270

AA moves well on his feet, sizes up well against Stipe too, IDK?.. I think this fight is a tough call myself.. It's also the one fight I'm most looking forward to watching on this card as a fan..

I'm already locked in on AA.. Current odds +190 by the way...

$200.00

$410.00

Pending

1/2/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Andrei Arlovski +205* vs Stipe Miocic

Will hedge with this prop probably to cover the $200 -

1133 Miocic wins by TKO/KO +160

Also have this prop parlay'd up already..

Pending1/2/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -165* vs Arlovski / Miocic goes 3 round distance


IF STIPE WINS BY DECISION I'LL BE ROYALLY FOCKED!!

Stipe wins, but it's not worth the risk in a heavyweight fight where either guy can get caught plus. against someone that can almost match his athletism, in aa. No bet is the best play on the fight. I'll be rooting for aa.

Originally Posted by JoshKnows46

Stipe wins, but it's not worth the risk in a heavyweight fight where either guy can get caught plus. against someone that can almost match his athletism, in aa. No bet is the best play on the fight. I'll be rooting for aa.

If you think Stipe is going to win then you should play him on the Straight and hedge with AA KO prop.. You can still make money.. Just gotta work out the math and numbers and then bet accordingly.. Or just bet both KO props as this fight most likely ends in a KO one way or the other..

UFC 195 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 1/2		1101 Andrei Arlovski		+190	o1½ -155
11:30PM		1102 Stipe Miocic		-230	u1½ +135

KO PROP HEDGE - 1129 Arlovski wins by TKO/KO

+410

Originally Posted by JIBBBY

AA has just been winning and knocking people out cold since his long string of wins began.....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Andrei-Arlovski-270

AA moves well on his feet, sizes up well against Stipe too, IDK?.. I think this fight is a tough call myself.. It's also the one fight I'm most looking forward to watching on this card as a fan..

I'm already locked in on AA.. Current odds +190 by the way...

$200.00

$410.00

Pending

1/2/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Andrei Arlovski +205* vs Stipe Miocic

Will hedge with this prop probably to cover the $200 -

1133 Miocic wins by TKO/KO +160

Also have this prop parlay'd up already..

Pending1/2/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -165* vs Arlovski / Miocic goes 3 round distance


IF STIPE WINS BY DECISION I'LL BE ROYALLY FOCKED!!

Stipe by knockout is it!

Originally Posted by JoshKnows46

How someone can say robbie has better top control then hendrix or gsp I don't know. GSP and hendrix have been subbed once combined, that's their world, they have more time on top of people with less sub defeats,robbie is more reckless from the top position,...without a doubt, if this fight goes to the ground, robbie will be subbed or he will be swept and be on bottom.

Robbie and GSP both fought Josh Koscheck and controlled him on the ground. Robbie did better against Koscheck than GSP. Robbie and GSP both fought Johny Hendricks. Robbie did much better against Hendricks than GSP did, especially in the wrestling department. This could mean, Robbie's top control is as good as GSP's, Robbie's ground and pound is much more dangerous.

Its hard to know if Robbie Lawler's losses by sub are important. Robbie took those fights in strikeforce less seriously and he might've just been fighting for a paycheck not caring if he won or lost. Condit isn't a major submission threat like Demian Maia would be. Condit himself admitted he doesn't train jiu jitsu much and isn't very good at it. Most if not all of Condit's subs are from fights where he rocks someone with big shots, then submits them when they don't know where they are. Condit isn't a slick submission guru who pulls subs out of his ass all day long. His sub wins are from him submitting people after his strikes has them in trouble.

Originally Posted by JoshKnows46

You,d have to be a pretty big nut hugger to believe robbie can roll around on the ground with condit. Robbie wouldn't dare attempt a takedown, that's what makes this fight so easy to predict, because condit knows he doesn't have to worry about the takedown, he can let his punches, kicks, knees and elbows go without having to re set for a possible takedown attempt, robbie will find it hard to get much off on condit, robbie either gets kod or subbed, and if not, he loses a decision. He can't win a decision against condit and he can't ko him. He def can't sub him.

I agree Robbie isn't likely to go for takedowns.

Its not because he's afraid of Condit's ground game, Robbie would absolutely destroy Condit on the ground. The reason Robbie won't go for takedowns, he has too much pride to resort to gameplans that might be boring and disappoint fans.

Originally Posted by JIBBBY

AA has just been winning and knocking people out cold since his long string of wins began.....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Andrei-Arlovski-270

AA moves well on his feet, sizes up well against Stipe too, IDK?.. I think this fight is a tough call myself.. It's also the one fight I'm most looking forward to watching on this card as a fan..

I'm already locked in on AA.. Current odds +190 by the way...

I have Arlovski winning but my plays haven't been going well so I could be wrong on that.

Stipe didn't look good against JDS and JDS didn't look good against Overeem. Stipe didn't look great against Mark Hunt either. That was the fight where Mark Hunt cut down to 265 after not following proper nutrition or dietary guidelines. Stipe fought a 30% Mark Hunt, that's the only reason I think he looked decent in that fight. Arlovski is better than Stipe is at closing the distance, setting up his strikes. Arlovski is also the harder hitter and I think has better hands and overall technique.

But this sport seems almost custom made to make people eat their words and look like fools so who knows what will happen.

Originally Posted by Sanity Check

Robbie and GSP both fought Josh Koscheck and controlled him on the ground. Robbie did better against Koscheck than GSP. Robbie and GSP both fought Johny Hendricks. Robbie did much better against Hendricks than GSP did, especially in the wrestling department. This could mean, Robbie's top control is as good as GSP's, Robbie's ground and pound is much more dangerous.

Its hard to know if Robbie Lawler's losses by sub are important. Robbie took those fights in strikeforce less seriously and he might've just been fighting for a paycheck not caring if he won or lost. Condit isn't a major submission threat like Demian Maia would be. Condit himself admitted he doesn't train jiu jitsu much and isn't very good at it. Most if not all of Condit's subs are from fights where he rocks someone with big shots, then submits them when they don't know where they are. Condit isn't a slick submission guru who pulls subs out of his ass all day long. His sub wins are from him submitting people after his strikes has them in trouble.

All good points, nice read.

Originally Posted by Sanity Check

I have Arlovski winning but my plays haven't been going well so I could be wrong on that.

Stipe didn't look good against JDS and JDS didn't look good against Overeem. Stipe didn't look great against Mark Hunt either. That was the fight where Mark Hunt cut down to 265 after not following proper nutrition or dietary guidelines. Stipe fought a 30% Mark Hunt, that's the only reason I think he looked decent in that fight. Arlovski is better than Stipe is at closing the distance, setting up his strikes. Arlovski is also the harder hitter and I think has better hands and overall technique.

But this sport seems almost custom made to make people eat their words and look like fools so who knows what will happen.

Yep, but AA did get rocked and dropped fighting Travis Brown before getting the KO himself, Stipe has the better chin and that concerns me in this match up though.....

I still think AA trains with better partners then Stipe and has a better coach in Greg Jackson at Jackson/Wink Academy.. AA's has been training with champs and guys like Jon Jones, Reem, etc.. Just happens he is undefeated since going there also..

http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/11/2...in-albuquerque