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UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Nelson (April 11, 2014)

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#61

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Quote Originally Posted by Wilbo86 View Post
Just a bit of constructive criticism from my point of view Ron, I've noticed you seem to put a lot of stock in intangibles like mental state and focus etc. I'd be weary of this. Its fair enough if you're talking about a fighter with a proven problem with focus or motivation but generally i don't think its something worth putting too much weight on. MMA is a minefield of hyperbole, every fighter is "in the best shape of his life" or "more focused than he's ever been" or low and behold following a loss "wasn't focused" etc... One listen to a joe rogan into video will show you what I mean...

Anyway, just my opinion.

Also, I agree duranish isn't a lock
I don't put a lot of emphasis on one specific thing. I spend hours listening to & watching interviews. Watching fight footage. I try to know everything about a fighter (bad habits with drugs, single or married, etc.). In the sport of boxing knowing who a fighters manager & promoter are is very important along with many other things. Too many things to mention. The first wager I ever made was back in 1997 Sugar Shane Mosley vs Philip Holiday. It was only around 3 thousand, I can't remember exactly how much. Shortly after that I made another wager for 7700 on Prince Naseem Hamed vs Wayne McCullough. I've been watching MMA since UFC 1 & have never missed a major promotion fight.
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#66

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Quote Originally Posted by dww123 View Post
Only MMA? Or do you just mean gambling on sports in general?
I haven't watched a stick & ball sport in decades. I couldn't tell ya who won last year's Super Bowl, NBA Championship, Baseball World Series, etc,. Outside of my personal life a lot of my time is spent reading or training to keep my old ass looking young. My parents got me into martial arts at the age of 4. So the only sports I'm into are combat sports.
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#67

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Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Paul_2012 View Post
I don't put a lot of emphasis on one specific thing. I spend hours listening to & watching interviews. Watching fight footage. I try to know everything about a fighter (bad habits with drugs, single or married, etc.). In the sport of boxing knowing who a fighters manager & promoter are is very important along with many other things. Too many things to mention. The first wager I ever made was back in 1997 Sugar Shane Mosley vs Philip Holiday. It was only around 3 thousand, I can't remember exactly how much. Shortly after that I made another wager for 7700 on Prince Naseem Hamed vs Wayne McCullough. I've been watching MMA since UFC 1 & have never missed a major promotion fight.
Could have just said "'I BET BIG MONEY YALLLLL"
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#73

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Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Paul_2012 View Post
Nijem has better wrestling. He has a clear path to victory through takedowns & sub defense. There is no such thing as easy money or locks in MMA.
I agree there is no such thing as easy money or locks in MMA.. I think it's one of the toughest sports to bet on.. Anything like a lucky punch to even an injury during a fight can change things in a hurry.. What's going thru the fighters minds as they step into the cage and so on..

All we can do is research the fighters leading up to the fight, see how their training camps are going, style match ups, win streaks, etc.. Even with all that nothing is guaranteed...
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#74

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Ryan Laflare 10-0 vs John Howard 22-8....http://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-abu-dha...2=Ryan-LaFlare

John Doomsday Howard at almost a 3-1 underdog perhaps has a chance in this one.. What do you guys think?

Seems Howard has turned the corner a bit as he's won his last 2 fights and seems to be getting better in recent fights.. Ryan Laflare is a big step up in comp from guys like Uriah Hall and Siyar though.. Doomsday had to go the distance in both of his last 2 fights to get those wins..

Is it worth taking a shot on Doomsday over Laflare? I just hate betting against undefeated fighters though.

Howard does have 30 fights under his belt and Laflare only 10, which tells me Howard has an experience advantage going in which makes me think just maybe....
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#75

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Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
Ryan Laflare 10-0 vs John Howard 22-8....http://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-abu-dha...2=Ryan-LaFlare

John Doomsday Howard at almost a 3-1 underdog perhaps has a chance in this one.. What do you guys think?

Seems Howard has turned the corner a bit as he's won his last 2 fights and seems to be getting better in recent fights.. Ryan Laflare is a big step up in comp from guys like Uriah Hall and Siyar though.. Doomsday had to go the distance in both of his last 2 fights to get those wins..

Is it worth taking a shot on Doomsday over Laflare? I just hate betting against undefeated fighters though.

Howard does have 30 fights under his belt and Laflare only 10, which tells me Howard has an experience advantage going in which makes me think just maybe....
I believe Howard is going to win via decision. The fight is going to be close & @ +300 there is definitely value in Howard & Howard Dec. +619. Fight goes the distance is also a good play. However, Howard has a tremendous left hook & can put Laflare's lights out so I wouldn't automatically only play Howard via Dec. GL!
Last edited by Ron_Paul_2012; 04-09-14 at 11:56 AM.
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