I'm looking for that GSP documentary I saw on here and can't find it. Lol
Originally Posted by CaptChaos145
I read your post a few times and finally figured it out. My name is Mike and I'm new to the forum. I was googling betting sites and stumbled on this site/forum. It looks pretty good. I post on a small forum and the UG is too big for me (even though I still post there sometimes.)
you out guys post some good stuff.
Oh. Well welcome to SBR Mike. What fight do you think is the biggest lock on next Saturn Day's UFC card?
You gotta gotta gotta be fresh.
Youtube search is your friend fellaI'm looking for that GSP documentary I saw on here and can't find it. Lol
You aren't lying as this next UFC card is light years away from the last.. Zuffa must have planned for a lengthy vacation during this off time stink..Oh. Well welcome to SBR Mike. What fight do you think is the biggest lock on next Saturn Day's UFC card?
On a positive note - Gives Bellator, WSOF, and even Legacy more of the spot light.. Probably a good thing for MMA fans in retrospect...
Both fighters are 37. Minotauro Nogueira in his prime beats Big Country 9 out of ten times. I have been an MMA fan since UFC 1. The idea of Big Country taking on Minotauro back in 2001-2006 would have been laughable. I don't know how much he has left but I wish him well this Saturday in Abu Dhabi.
Andrew Craig vs Camozzi really sticks out here for me. I believe Andrew rebounds after his loss to Barnatt. Waiting to see if the line moves in my favor and will be taking Craig.
Roy is gonna knock his old ass out. they might both be same age but psychically Minotauro is 48.
Both fighters are 37. Minotauro Nogueira in his prime beats Big Country 9 out of ten times. I have been an MMA fan since UFC 1. The idea of Big Country taking on Minotauro back in 2001-2006 would have been laughable. I don't know how much he has left but I wish him well this Saturday in Abu Dhabi.
early substantial softening on Craig price...from -130 opener to +105 in less than 3 hours at 5dAndrew Craig vs Camozzi really sticks out here for me. I believe Andrew rebounds after his loss to Barnatt. Waiting to see if the line moves in my favor and will be taking Craig.
my inclination is that if your original analysis is sound, you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY turn your nose up at a cheaper-price/larger-payout...perhaps the best course is to not change course and thankfully risk 36% less for a crack at the same target amount OR risk the same amount as originally planned for a crack at a 36% bigger prize
if you liked it at the opener...you should love it 36% more now...unless you have reason to believe that the early wave of $ chasing camozzi knows something you didn't factor into your original analysis
the error that many make in this game that leads to much...is to AUTOMATICALLY assume that money...whether early, middle, or late...is somehow "smarter" (aka. "less stupid") than we are
it IS however, a good idea to see if there is anything "off" with whatever made Craig stand out for you...early money not agreeing with you should make you re-view but NOT automatically abandon (or--even more drastically--reverse) your original view...if nothing appears to be off, you'd be stupid to not accept the bargain that's presented itself (and may very-well swing back before the event...leading to another source of
Last edited by fitguy67; 04-06-14 at 04:49 AM.
As hoping to get Camozzi as slight dog in this one.
On guida by decision +165.
Not me. Value there, definitely, but I'd rather just take Guida straight. He has a pretty decent shot for a finish here, I think. Wouldn't be shocked to see him choke Kawajiri out.On guida by decision +165.
early substantial softening on Craig price...from -130 opener to +105 in less than 3 hours at 5d
my inclination is that if your original analysis is sound, you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY turn your nose up at a cheaper-price/larger-payout...perhaps the best course is to not change course and thankfully risk 36% less for a crack at the same target amount OR risk the same amount as originally planned for a crack at a 36% bigger prize
if you liked it at the opener...you should love it 36% more now...unless you have reason to believe that the early wave of $ chasing camozzi knows something you didn't factor into your original analysis
the error that many make in this game that leads to much
it IS however, a good idea to see if there is anything "off" with whatever made Craig stand out for you...early money not agreeing with you should make you re-view but NOT automatically abandon (or--even more drastically--reverse) your original view...if nothing appears to be off, you'd be stupid to not accept the bargain that's presented itself (and may very-well swing back before the event...leading to another source of
The last fight night card was a case in point, a lot of money coming in on favorites late. I got Dolloway at +280 and Moldonado at +170, prices that were egregiously out of line. I will say that late money, especially in high profile fights, is usually a little on the dumb side and running with the herd.
Conversely, early money especially close to line opening is usually smart money. Thats the way i see it anywayThe last fight night card was a case in point, a lot of money coming in on favorites late. I got Dolloway at +280 and Moldonado at +170, prices that were egregiously out of line. I will say that late money, especially in high profile fights, is usually a little on the dumb side and running with the herd.
I didn't catch guida +115 straight, I actually thought the money would be coming in on kawijiri so I waited and missed it. I could only see guida getting a late finish if kawijiri gasses again.Not me. Value there, definitely, but I'd rather just take Guida straight. He has a pretty decent shot for a finish here, I think. Wouldn't be shocked to see him choke Kawajiri out.
