GuidaClayAllDay's Plays

Hello everyone,
I have been betting on MMA for 6 years and have happy to say I’ve done very well. I am the moderator of the MMAJunkie Wagering Forum. My strategy which continues to evolve involves a combination of statistics and handicapping. I am going to start posting my plays here.

To reduce volatility I never bet more than 20% of my bankroll. I will wait until fight day to post plays accordingly to the current 5dimes reduced lines so everyone from low to high rollers can tail. I will never edit posts where my plays are announced. I will screenshot lines as proof. Plays and screenshots will also be posted on my twitter @GuidaClayAllDay. https://twitter.com/GuidaClayAllDay

I believe you can generate at least a 10% yearly return following my plays. Enjoy!

I officially started with UFC on FUEL 7, in which I netted -.34 u.


UFC 157 plays will be posted around 11 am tomorrow.

Welcome Pal.

will definitely check back 11-ish tomorrow

A new guy who admits a losing night?

Hell froze over

Originally Posted by GuidaClayAllDay

...
To reduce volatility I never bet more than 20% of my bankroll.

Before someone else mis-interprets this and flies off the handle, let me ask you to clarify...

you either mean
A. you discipline yourself to putting a maximum of 20% of your roll in play (all positions considered) on one event's card,

OR you mean...

B. 20% maximum is possible on some (very rare) plays...meaning your max-play discipline limits you to going NO MORE THAN "one-fifth in" in such strong-play cases...keeping 80% of your roll free and you still very-much in business should the play fail to perform

or you might mean...

C. something else
___________
I know you're busy capping now...this is not urgent at all...but i'd like to know what you meant when you have time.

For now...i'm really looking forward to your output.

Best of luck on your SBR debut...hope you turn around the huge -0.34 units hole you dug yourself into last card...

This guy posts at 2+2
he is for real. He's done well.

Guy is a sharp.

Guy will be on Hendo.

Thanks for all the kind words guys. Promise to answer questions/concerns in a couple hours.

Here are my plays for UFC 157.

I dig it. I'm on all the same, except I have kos in some parlays.

One question, why 3 units on Rousey instead of Rousey ITD? The line on ITD is 230 cents better.

Originally Posted by fitguy67

Before someone else mis-interprets this and flies off the handle, let me ask you to clarify...

you either mean
A. you discipline yourself to putting a maximum of 20% of your roll in play (all positions considered) on one event's card,

OR you mean...

B. 20% maximum is possible on some (very rare) plays...meaning your max-play discipline limits you to going NO MORE THAN "one-fifth in" in such strong-play cases...keeping 80% of your roll free and you still very-much in business should the play fail to perform

or you might mean...

C. something else
___________
I know you're busy capping now...this is not urgent at all...but i'd like to know what you meant when you have time.

For now...i'm really looking forward to your output.

Best of luck on your SBR debut...hope you turn around the huge -0.34 units hole you dug yourself into last card...

Thanks for the kind words fitguy.

"A. you discipline yourself to putting a maximum of 20% of your roll in play (all positions considered) on one event's card" is what I meant. You will see people off the edge after a rough night but the key to longevity is reducing your bet size and carrying on.

For tailing purposes I wouldn't encourage anyone to risk more than 1/5th of their roll per event. I could see the rare occasion where one perceives the expected value to be so large that risking over 20% of their bankroll makes sense but I rather be more risk-adverse when recommending plays to tail.

Originally Posted by Sacrelicious

One question, why 3 units on Rousey instead of Rousey ITD? The line on ITD is 230 cents better.

or rousey by sub, if cartoonshe didnt get ko'd by kaufman or young, rousey aint doin' it

Originally Posted by Sacrelicious

One question, why 3 units on Rousey instead of Rousey ITD? The line on ITD is 230 cents better.

For tailing purposes I am only going to recommend straight wagers, as not everyone has access to prop lines. I believe 5dimes is a good choice to generate lines from because most people have access to 5dimes, and pinny's lines tend to beat 5dimes lines so Pinny users can generate even better returns

FWIW I have a little exposure to Rousey ITD, but the bets I recommend are the exact bets I am making.

Got it. Well, I do believe them to be solid, I suspect it will be a winning night for you.