Got a free $1000 air-bet from a local cuzOriginally Posted by Grabaka
Airbet.com graded him as a winner
Ron Paul. You are my favorite poster.
I need a new Mercedes. I'm going to tail you next event.
We putting 70% on Benavidez
Make it 95% like a true Alpha
Going to go 100% on joeben. Been watching tape and listening to the macgyver theme on repeat for hours. Hell, I'm going to switch to the karate kid tournament theme (you know, Joe Esposito's You're the best around) and might up the bet to 130% if it goes way under -700. I know this method is not for everyone, it takes a true professional to reach these analytical heights.
ALL IN on JoeBone when he gets to -500, just not enough damn chalk for an all in bet otherwise, NOT ENOUGH DAMN CHALK
Slamming him has hard as the manlet slams Megan Olivi
Looking at your twitter and I am with Gabe, I am baffled as to why you didn't play Barnett? You were all over him when the fight was announced. You seemed to like him at the start and then he dropped like 200 points. How did you not like him and play him at -155 or there bouts? What did you see in Mir that held you off that? Before you posted plays I figured Barnett would of been your biggest play, yet you didn't even play him (on your twitter plays)
Probably because of the weigh-ins, it's not unusual to have your outlook completely changed after seeing what a fighter looks like during fight week and weigh-ins....I had a play on Cerrone months out and was reasonably confident he'd win. Then I watched his intereviews during fight week and heard about the arrest and lost all confidence in my initial cappin' of the fight so I arbed out while I still could a couple days before the weigh-ins. Many thought Barnett looked podgey at the weigh-ins while Mir looked in great shape
He played early lines and might not hVe wanted more risk on Barnett
alll he had to do was throw it in a parlay
hell my parlay of mendes jobe Faber Barnett has me winning enough air for one day of breath
Meh, I don't see how it changes that much, especially for a guy like Barnett. You think he trashes Mir at first and like it at what? Lets say -280. Then it gets to -155 and you don't play because he looks a little extra fat? I can see if you expect injury is the reason, but no one thought that. I could maybe see if it looks like a TERRIBLE weight cut for a guy. But Barnett is always fat, he just looked a tad extra fat. A fat Barnett still would hold a big cardio advantage over Mir. Barnett is a professional guy who has done this a few times, far different from a young fighter who misses weight or has a bad cut. Barnett has always been the fat guy at the weigh ins. I just don't see how it changes that much when MD seemed to like him at the huge price he started out as. I personally saw little difference in his physique.
Just figured it would be in the twitter plays. He played a few limit lines early and that was enough for him? When the price dropped by more than half? I just don't buy it.He played early lines and might not hVe wanted more risk on Barnett
alll he had to do was throw it in a parlay
hell my parlay of mendes jobe Faber Barnett has me winning enough air for one day of breath
Had no interest in risking more on Barnett after seeing those weigh-ins. Barnett looked by far the worst I had ever seen him, and Mir looked much better than I expected. Barnett didn't look focused at all. I maxed Barnett at -230 and -270 expecting it to get worse and close around -350. I was way off, apparently. I don't recommend every play I make on my Twitter, I have a lot of plays on each card, so I just recommend the ones I like the most. I thought it would be disingenuous of me to post a play that I no longer feel comfortable making myself.
I actually covered this earlier in the thread, by the way.
How heavy are you on Barnett MD?Heavier than I want to be, that's for sure. Won't be crushed if he loses, but it would hurt.What changed between then and now? I'm on Barnett fairly heavily as well.Seriously. Don't just read my thread selectively.Watched a lot of tape. Barnett looked like shit at the weigh-ins. Mir looked unbelievably good at the weigh-ins.
Nothing more to it than that. Still give Barnett the edge, but it was foolish for me to take Barnett -230. Never expected this kind of line movement.
Why do ou think it was foolish to play -230?
Mirs line got better for dos santos and Cormier.
I too thought it would hover around -350. Ok more like -360
but Mirs chances were a crazy sub or out wrestling barnett ala the roy Nelson fight. Fwiw Nelson had the flu that event. I really didnt see him avoidin the clinch with barnett to win rounds striking convincingly. Moreover despite my nut hugging of mir I think his chin is now poopie
I think that if I had a better grasp on public perception of that fight, I could have anticipated that line movement. Granted, I think most expected Barnett to close as a big favourite, but that just means we're all failing together.Why do ou think it was foolish to play -230?
Mirs line got better for dos santos and Cormier.
I too thought it would hover around -350. Ok more like -360
but Mirs chances were a crazy sub or out wrestling barnett ala the roy Nelson fight. Fwiw Nelson had the flu that event. I really didnt see him avoidin the clinch with barnett to win rounds striking convincingly. Moreover despite my nut hugging of mir I think his chin is now poopie
I feel the same way about Mir's chances, but my biggest concern was that the fight would degenerate into a sloppy, lazy kickboxing match. I thought the only way that would happen was if Barnett chose not to push the action, force the clinch or pursue takedowns. A seemingly undertrained Barnett with a questionable mindframe was the worst thing that could have happened, with how I 'capped the fight.
