I didn't bet on Kongo. I didn't think taking Nelson at those odds was worth it either, though.Originally Posted by Sacrelicious
I got to strongly disagree here, I know you have been against Nelson in his last 2 fights as well. I believe you had very valid points in your breakdown of his matchup with Mitrione, but as many people have a tendency to have occur with BC, Mitrione got clipped. Much like Kongo, he goes over Stipe here in easy fashion.
Honestly, I'm waiting for the props, much like my last BC bet, bet on BC to win with the amount expected to win divided up on ITD, KO, and Rd 1 props, depending on the lines.
I think Nelson only really wins this fight if Stipe chooses to stand with him and circle into his power. That said, Nelson is very good at leading people into his right hand, and I don't know if Stipe is good enough to stop him from doing that, but he has significant advantages in speed, strength, reach, height, athleticism, wrestling, and probably cardio too. Roy has more knockout power, a better chin and more aggression. Stipe has savage ground-and-pound, and if he actively tries to wrestle with Roy, I'm pretty sure he'll put out the win. You're betting on a guy at -260 who's smaller and has all of those disadvantages, and got thrown around the cage by Frank Mir. I really don't think it's a good bet. Sure, he might win (I think he wins around 40%, which accounts for Stipe's game planning and his lack of striking IQ), but at those odds, I really, really don't like that bet. Beltran's a better wrestler than Big Country, and he got thrown around by Miocic. People seem to think that Miocic is a pure boxer or something, but he's a far better wrestler than a striker. I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on many people at heavyweight against Roy if I thought they were going to stand with him, as although he doesn't have good technique, he's so aggressive and hits so hard that he can catch much better strikers. Stipe is an exception, as although I do expect him to stand with Roy for a while, I also expect him to clinch against the fence (where Roy is powerless) and take Roy down. Roy is just such a ridiculously beatable fighter that it's hard to not bet against him most of the time. The problem is that no one seems to want to exploit his weaknesses.
Last edited by MD; 06-01-13 at 11:14 AM.
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Dwil125 gave Sacrelicious 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
