For those who aren't aware, torrents are out for Trouble Will Find Me. I'm assuming that's the reason V has been posting so much less.
Oops i had been harassing bfo on twitter for a while now to put o/u's up. Theyre also adding +3.5's too.
ha that combined with fact I cant post on here at work anymore!Originally Posted by MD
For those who aren't aware, torrents are out for Trouble Will Find Me. I'm assuming that's the reason V has been posting so much less.
My favourite plays for tonight:
Luke Rockhold moderate-large -114: I think Vitor Belfort has a really good shot at winning this fight, I do. I think he finishes Rockhold in the first couple of rounds around 30% of the time. That being said, I think Rockhold wins the other 70% of the time. He has too many tools, and honestly, it's easy to think either side is incredibly undervalued in this fight, simply because they're both awful stylistic match-ups for each other. Rockhold is easy to hit and is generally overaggressive while Belfort has trouble with distance strikers and kicks, and especially people who have big cardio edges, as Rockhold will. When I play this fight out in my mind, I actually think there's a good chance Rockhold knocks him out early, which would surprise a lot of people. It's a relatively competitive fight with a lot of value on Rockhold, but wouldn't be surprised to see Vitor get the stoppage. Great fight, very exciting.
Rafael Natal large -350: Guy is going to smoke Zeferino. Zeferino is overmatched in every area, Natal should be able to easily stuff his takedowns, and on the feet, Natal is lightyears ahead. His fight IQ scares me, but there's simply such a big skill discrepancy that I can't pass this up. Natal by knockout.
Lentz moderate -155: My problem with Hacran Dias is simply how untested he is. There's no reason to believe the hype. Yeah, he lay all over Alcantara, but Lentz could do the same thing. Absolutely no reason to think Lentz shouldn't lay all over Dias. I regret this bet more and more the closer we get to fight time, but empirical evidence is more important than gut-feeling and hype, and while I wish the evidence had told me that Dias should be the favourite, it didn't; he hasn't looked outstanding, although I'm somewhat expecting to be proved wrong.
Maldonado/Hollett o2.5 moderate-large +155: I posted a thread on this, write-up is in there.
I have a small-moderate play on Prazeres +150; I don't think Thiago is fade material yet, but Prazeres is a huge, stocky guy with bullish takedowns. I would expect him to be able to take Thiago to the ground, where he should have a clear path to victory. His cardio worries me, however.
This parlay at close to +300:
Pending 5/18/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1203 Anjos/Dunham goes 3 round distance -185* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance Pending 5/18/13 8:30pm Props Fighting 1406 Not Lentz inside distance -525* vs Lentz wins inside distance Pending 5/18/13 6:30pm Props Fighting 1806 Not Santos inside distance -1725* vs Santos wins inside distance Pending 5/18/13 6:00pm Props Fighting 1903 Maldonado/Hollett goes 3 round distance -120* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
That's Iliarde, not Junior, by the way. I like that parlay a lot.
Then, some props: Paulo Thiago by KO +590. His clearest route to victory me thinks. Belfort by KO +210 as a hedge, Trinaldo/Rio under 1.5 +130, Rockhold by sub +700, Natal by KO +320 is a prop that I love, should be closer to even money.
Not sure how many more wagers I'll have. I won't be picking a side on the Dunham/RDA fight, but I'll probably be playing a prop there. Still contemplating the Jussier/Cariaso fight.
Points Awarded:
visualrealism gave MD 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Second the lean on Rockhold. Vitor lets this one get out of the first round then Rockhold starts to pick him apart. Tko rnd 3-4. GL MD. Btw, small play on Peterson as well.
Mercer! Good to see you around pal. Post more you scrub.
You like Peterson? I think that's a tough fight to call. Especially if it hits the cards, I doubt I'd be comfortable on either side.
What do you think of RDA/Dunham?
I think that one's super tough to call. imo that fights a complete toss up. +165 on Dunham and let it ride.Mercer! Good to see you around pal. Post more you scrub.
You like Peterson? I think that's a tough fight to call. Especially if it hits the cards, I doubt I'd be comfortable on either side.
What do you think of RDA/Dunham?
Tailing you on that Fabio/hollet round prop.. kind of I took fight starts round 3. I'm thinking maldanado's body shots might finish him off late in the fight.
Made money on that one bellator bet. Riding all your bets again today pal!!
^ Thanks for the faith man. Hope we cash big. Looks good so far in my second biggest play.
Live betting Hollett moderate at -115 and +125.
Lol why do you like hollet so much MD? Nice play on the round prop, I really thought Fabio would finish it late.
Why do I wat?
That being said, considering he was up a round, I figured it was a steal at pick 'em odds. Always the chance he stole the second, especially considering how big cans both of them are. I'd make the same live bet again I think.
Lol maybe I'm just a Maldonado fan, I don't think he's a can at all. I thought he got robbed against igor, and kingsbury. He does need to work on Takedown defense though.
Awwwwww yeaaaaaaah. Only up slightly for that fight though. I honestly thought the second round could have gone either way.Live betting Paulo -120, -136, -163.
I think Maldonado is one of the worst fighters on the UFC rosters; I rate McKenzie higher than him. Hilarious to watch though, I hope he never gets cut.Lol maybe I'm just a Maldonado fan, I don't think he's a can at all. I thought he got robbed against igor, and kingsbury. He does need to work on Takedown defense though.
