I'm not too confident on the Rampage line, and will play him straight up moderate closer to fight time, as there's a decent chance he KO's Glover, given Glover's suspect chin and Rampage's stylistic advantage.
Aldo finishing Edgar would surprise me. I think the "fight goes distance" prop is very solid, especially as it's + money right now.
I would be absolutely astounded if Aldo finished Edgar, solid prop play.
Edgar has taken a ton of damage in his last few fights.Originally Posted by MD
Aldo finishing Edgar would surprise me. I think the "fight goes distance" prop is very solid, especially as it's + money right now.
Guy was getting caught with punches he didnt see by guys like gray maynard. Now he is fighting a guy with handspeed he has never seen, who has leg kicks, and the footwork to cut him off in the octagon.
manlet is gonna get smoked. vaughany will have to take down his poster.
I played that prop at +130, was very surprised at that propI'm not too confident on the Rampage line, and will play him straight up moderate closer to fight time, as there's a decent chance he KO's Glover, given Glover's suspect chin and Rampage's stylistic advantage.
Aldo finishing Edgar would surprise me. I think the "fight goes distance" prop is very solid, especially as it's + money right now.
I do not think Glovers chin is suspect nor do I think Rampage has amazing punching power anymore. Failure to connect and finish weak chins like Forrest, Jardine, and Bader are what would tempt me to play Rampage by decision. Moreover, Rampage does not throw enough and will always lose a volume contest.
I have 2u on Aldo at -225 I think. Hendo showed us in Round 1 of the second fight that leg kicks work.
hahaa "Tom's River baby"!Edgar has taken a ton of damage in his last few fights.
Guy was getting caught with punches he didnt see by guys like gray maynard. Now he is fighting a guy with handspeed he has never seen, who has leg kicks, and the footwork to cut him off in the octagon.
manlet is gonna get smoked. vaughany will have to take down his poster.
Don't have time to handicap until the end of the month, so here's some unstudied action plays for chump change:
1/12/13 8:07pm $105.47 $59.76 Pending 2 Team Parlay Pending 1/12/13 9:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2601 Roger Gracie -340* vs Anthony Smith Pending 1/12/13 8:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2701 Tim Kennedy -475* vs Trevor Smith 1/12/13 4:32pm $50.00 $44.40 Pending 2 Team Parlay Pending 1/12/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 2205 Barnett wins inside distance -530* vs Not Barnett inside distance Pending 1/12/13 10:30pm Props Fighting 2305 Mousasi wins inside distance -170* vs Not Mousasi inside distance 1/12/13 4:31pm $10.00 $55.90 Pending 1/12/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 2107 Cormier wins by 3 round decision +559* vs Not Cormier by 3 round decision 1/12/13 10:48am $20.00 $68.67 Pending 4 Team Parlay Pending 1/12/13 11:59pm Strikeforce Fighting 2001 Nate Marquardt -325* vs Tarec Saffiedine Pending 1/12/13 11:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2101 Daniel Cormier/Dion Staring Over 1½ +165* Pending 1/12/13 11:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2201 Josh Barnett -1600* vs Nandor Guelmino Pending 1/12/13 10:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2301 Gegard Mousasi -490* vs Mike Kyle 1/9/13 2:46pm $100.00 $128.91 Pending 5 Team Parlay Pending 1/12/13 11:59pm Strikeforce Fighting 2001 Nate Marquardt -300* vs Tarec Saffiedine Pending 1/12/13 11:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2101 Daniel Cormier -2000* vs Dion Staring Pending 1/12/13 11:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2201 Josh Barnett -1500* vs Nandor Guelmino Pending 1/12/13 10:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2301 Gegard Mousasi -420* vs Mike Kyle Pending 1/12/13 10:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2401 Ronaldo Souza -420* vs Ed Herman 1/9/13 11:40am $100.00 $42.50 Pending 2 Team Parlay Pending 1/12/13 11:59pm Strikeforce Fighting 2001 Nate Marquardt -280* vs Tarec Saffiedine Pending 1/12/13 11:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2101 Daniel Cormier -2000* vs Dion Staring
Curran cashes. Also got a moderate-large bet on Chandler.Curran is going to put an end to the hype train. I've already posted that I believe most of the fight will be contested on the feet, due to both fighter's outstanding takedown defence, and although many would give Pitbull the edge on the feet, I think Curran will beat him there. Soundly.
I believe that if there's a knockout, it will be Pat knocking out Freire, and rarely vice-versa. Pitbull can get the better of Curran in some exchanges, and maybe even win some rounds, but the fact is that Curran is one of the most well-rounded strikers in the division and his defence is resoundingly the best in the division. His defence is superb, and his ability to control distance and pacing is excellent.
Let me ask you the money question: outside of his physical tools, what is Curran's biggest advantage on the feet? The answer is that he is a truly disciplined striker. Say what you will about Freire's cardio, he's gotten two third-round knockouts in Bellator, but the fact that he gets sloppier and sloppier as the fight progresses is undeniable. For an example, his knockout of Reis is considered one of his finest moments, but take a look at the video. His form, his technique, his timing. Look at everything about it.
I'm not impressed by Freire's cardio, and I don't think he's a disciplined enough striker to execute a solid game plan against a fighter like Curran for five rounds. Pitbull has the tools to win, but he probably won't find the early knockout due to Curran's defence, and even if he wins the first round or two, it will get ugly from there. Pat Curran can find anyone's chin; his accuracy and his ability to exploit openings in a person's striking game are world-class. Curran is a low-volume striker with a style that doesn't bode well for him should the fight go to the judges, but even if Pitbull wins the first three rounds, if he gets sloppy as he has in the past, there's a very strong chance that Curran will finish him. Freire is a physical specimen, but Curran is conditioned, disciplined, and has the fight IQ to exploit Pitbull at every possible turn. He'll use his reach and cardio advantages, drag Pitbull into deep waters, and then drown him.
Curran, moderate-large.
Playing Chandler -185.
Good job Mister D
Nice calls on Curran and Chandler.
My only two in MMA tonight. Chandler is a beast!
Thanks boys, appreciate the kind words. We never seem to lose when we're on the same side, G.
BIGDAY, Chandler is indeed a beast. I think Curran's the best fighter in Bellator by a mile, though. Chandler's striking has an immeasurable number of holes, but if he progresses as he has been, he'll be a force some day.
A good start to 2013 so far, carrying over my success from the tail end of 2012. I haven't finished down on an event in a long time (unless you want to count the final Strikeforce card where I didn't have the time to handicap it so I threw change on some parlays), and I owe it all to JSanford.
Was on both.
It sounds like most of the people here had a solid night, thats what I like to hear. My only miss tonight was on the Chandler/Hawn over... dunno what I was thinking there.
Lol maybe that o/u should have been a no play, I though it would be a little harder for chandler to finish his takedowns and I didnt see hawn getting subbed.
Team cuzins never losesThanks boys, appreciate the kind words. We never seem to lose when we're on the same side, G.
Back to handicapping properly on the 23rd. Until then, more unstudied junk plays that don't count.
I'm fairly sure that were I to properly handicap the main event, I'd think Bisping would win around 80% of the time. I'd likely bet moderate-large or large on him. As it is now, I'm playing Bisping and Vitor wins in round 1, neither for any real money. Also making some action parlays that I expect to lose.
158717962-1 1/18/13 4:27pm $10.00 $1,387.88 Pending 15 Team Parlay Pending 1/19/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Michael Bisping -115* vs Vitor Belfort Pending 1/19/13 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Diego Nunes -160* vs Nik Lentz Pending 1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -220* vs John Dodson Pending 1/26/13 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Anthony Pettis -115* vs Donald Cerrone Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -250* vs Frankie Edgar Pending 2/2/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -425* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira Pending 2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Alistair Overeem -350* vs Antonio Silva Pending 2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche Pending 2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson Pending 2/23/13 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Urijah Faber -380* vs Ivan Menjivar Pending 3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz Pending 3/16/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rory MacDonald -195* vs Carlos Condit Pending 4/20/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ben Henderson -210* vs Gilbert Melendez Pending 4/20/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -350* vs Frank Mir Pending 4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
158716624-1 1/18/13 4:16pm $50.00 $513.31 Pending 9 Team Parlay Pending 1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -220* vs John Dodson Pending 2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Alistair Overeem -350* vs Antonio Silva Pending 2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche Pending 2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson Pending 3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz Pending 3/16/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rory MacDonald -195* vs Carlos Condit Pending 4/20/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ben Henderson -210* vs Gilbert Melendez Pending 4/20/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -350* vs Frank Mir Pending 4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
Looking forward to getting back to handicapping on the 23rd, as the only fight I've had the chance to properly handicap since before Christmas was the Curran/Pitbull fight, of which my girlfriend was kind enough to watch some footage with me. UFC on Fox 6 will be the first card I've gotten the chance to study since UFC 155, and I'm hoping to continue my current streak of winning events.
Hm, interesting. We are on almost all the same plays for those fights over the next few months, but I am not placing any real money on this card, I'm not too interested in it and have not put the time into handicapping it. My only real bet is Nunes/Lentz goes to decision, threw a couple bucks on the main card just for fun, but thats all.
Look forward to continued conversations man. I have two days off and have already got a good idea of my Fox plays, I'ma be watching Bellator tape.
