MD's House of Winnerz

Been posting my picks in the the event threads a lot recently, so I figured making a thread to house them would be more appropriate.

For now, I bring you this gem from Paddy Power support:

Jemma G Hi, my name is Jemma G. How may I help you?
Jemma G Good evening.
Jemma G Can I have your name please?
You Hello, I'm wondering about an offer you have on the Georges St-Pierre vs Carlos Condit MMA fight.
You My name is ***.
You http://www.paddypower.com/bet/ufc-mma/ufc-matches/George-St-Pierre-v-Carlos-Condit-4468458.html
You "If either fighter wins by submission we will refund all losing match bets on the fight!"
You Does this include props? If I bet on Georges St-Pierre by decision, will I receive my money back should the fight end in submission?
You The conditions say it applies to all single bets, but I wanted to be sure.
Jemma G Yes ***, as long as you place a single match bet then it will qualify.

SEVERAL MINUTES LATER, AFTER I HAVE BET ON ST-PIERRE BY DECISION

Jemma G Apologies ***, I've double checked the terms and this particular bet wouldn't apply as it is only bets placed on the match betting market that apply.
Jemma G Ie. St Pierre to win outright.

Did they at least refund your bet? Considering they misled you on the promotion they were running.

ha I did wonder this the other day but noticed it said "on match price" so "match" meant on betting straight-up on either fighter.

They eventually refunded my bet, but she took so long that a bunch of lines were taken down. Had to "consult her supervisor".

Originally Posted by MD

Arbing Kampmann bet, and gonna bet on him again when his odds inevitably go back to >/=+110. Arbing Siler and Riddle, also.

Updated:

Kampmann moderate (+arb)
Riddle moderate (+arb)
Siler small-moderate (+arb)
Bocek small
GSP by decision large
GSP by unanimous decision large
Condit wins KO of the night small (Punisher <3)

Riddle/Siler/Bocek: +598
Philipou/Riddle/Siler: +329
Carmont/St-Pierre dec./Philippou dec./Siler/Riddle/Bocek/Hominick: +5165
Carmont/Philippou/Cote/Riddle/Hominick: +450

I'm pounding Kampmann at +125 on PP, and Hendricks at -112 on 5D.

Originally Posted by MD

Hedging my Bocek bet.

Lost all of my shitty parlays. Bought out of the Bocek bet, lost on Siler, lost hard on Kampmann, and crushed on GSP and Riddle. In straight bets, I made enough for it to be a pretty good card, but factoring in arbs (including my pounding of Kampmann+125/Hendricks -112 on PP/5D), I had an outstanding card. This is my biggest winning night in quite some time, and I feel like I did a pretty good job of picking arb-able fights (although I should have known Dos Anjos would be the side the public would take, and I feel like I have some more work to do for betting Bocek).

Great night.

http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_as...man_medium.gif

Cutest gay couple ever.

Hatton/Berto moderate @ +101
Hatton/Diaz-Henderson goes distance/Gus-Rua goes distance small @ +236

Honestly considering a play on Rua by decision, also.

^^ Rough night hoss.

Rough indeed. Senchenko is a stiff, and I wasn't expecting his stationary jab to go unexploited; considered Hatton pretty great parlay filler. He's looked in quite good shape and very motivated. I'm a bit surprised at the outcome, but oh well, live and learn.

Originally Posted by MD

Rough indeed. Senchenko is a stiff, and I wasn't expecting his stationary jab to go unexploited; considered Hatton pretty great parlay filler. He's looked in quite good shape and very motivated. I'm a bit surprised at the outcome, but oh well, live and learn.

Was surprised so many people were riding Hatton so hard in that fight. Could definitely see ways for Hatton to take it but The variables were just too hard to ignore. The value was just to overwhelming on the other side. Any leans on the other fight tonight? (Berto-Guerrero)

Originally Posted by Mercersux

Was surprised so many people were riding Hatton so hard in that fight. Could definitely see ways for Hatton to take it but The variables were just too hard to ignore. The value was just to overwhelming on the other side. Any leans on the other fight tonight? (Berto-Guerrero)

What made you like Senchenko?

i had senchenko im all in on berto for 3 thousand

I'm on over 9.5 rounds @ 1.62 hedged against Guerrero by KO @ odds better than 6.

I had seen Guerrero fight before, probably against Katsidis. And I didn't think he'd get knocked out by Berto. But then after betting the over 9.5 I watched Berto's match with Ortiz and he looked a bit vulnerable there. Ortiz of course hits extremely hard but I thought it's possible Guerrero might get a tko due to an accumulation of punches.

I guess it's possible Berto gets the KO since Guerrero was dropped by a right jab from Casamayor, and Berto is more explosive with his right hand. But I think it probably won't happen.

The bet I've placed above isn't very profitable, if I could go back I'd hedge Berto by Decision @ ~4 against Guerrero straight at better than 2.5.

Originally Posted by Crassus

What made you like Senchenko?

I wasn't completely convinced that Hatton wouldn't win this fight but I was in a situation where i couldn't talk myself into believing there was any sort of value at the prices you were getting for Hatton in what i looked at as a coin flip fight. Hatton may be 34 but guy has close to fifty fights to his credit. I believe that he was seriously close to being a shot fighter when he left the sport in 09 and the way he left didn't make me feel any better about this fight either. (likely one of the most vicious knockouts i can ever remember) The only way i saw this fight going for Senchenko was by K.O anyways because i would never trust a decision in a fighters backyard. Too many times have fighters & bettors been burned by bs decisions in boxing. Love the sports but it's as crooked as hell.

Originally Posted by woodsyallin

i had senchenko im all in on berto for 3 thousand

I bet you regret that real bad.

Wonder how many gambler's tore up their Berto tickets after the first two round ??? There was no way i thought this fight was going longer than five with the way Berto's eye blew up. Definitely a gamer tho.