Ufc 153

I don't understand where those odd come from regarding BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald and Jon Fitch vs Eric Silva. If I recall the BJ Penn vs Jon Fitch match up, it is a majority draw. If Penn didn't gass in the the 3rd round some might score it 30-27 for Penn.

Now if you make a poll who wins between Eric Silva vs Rory MacDonald, I willing to bet the poll likely close to dead even or no more than 55% favor to either fighter. So if public perceive BJ Penn is same level as Jon Fitch, and Rory MacDonald is also in the same level as Eric Silva. Why is the odd open +230/-270 in favor of Rory MacDonald and Eric Silva vs Jon Fitch open dead even -120/-120. What am I missing? Because PJ Penn announce his retirement? PJ Penn looks out of shape? Rory demolish Che Mills in the 2nd round? How come it is not that a big deal when Eric Silva submitted the Spaniard in the first round, and the Spaniard never been submit before in his whole mma career. If people believe Jon Fitch have a unbelievable suffocate top game, than how can 34yr Fitch suffocate a beast like Eric Silva if he can't even suffocate 32yr BJ Penn for the first 2 round when BJ Penn is only 5'9 and a natural 155 lber. Eric is 5'11 likely weight 185-190lbs at fight time with incredible athleticism. Eric Silva is a f@cking beast against a 34yr old who constantly get sideline by injuries, the odd is dead even? Come on!

Giga -- as many would say you're doing "MMA math". If guy A beats guy B, and guy B beats guy C... then surely guy A can beat guy C. If you know anything about fighting this is a fallacy.

Sometimes fighters are just BAD MATCH UPS against certain fighters. I think Fitch is a bad match up for Silva. Fitch can easily ride him for 3 rounds if Silva doesn't destroy him in the first 3 to 5 minutes.

As Sonnen said, there's 2 types of fighters:

1. Those who go for the kill.

2. Those who fight for 3 (or 5) rounds.

Those who go for the kill -- if they miss and fail... they've "blown their loads" and now they're at a serious disadvantage. A good example of this is the 1st fight with Edgar and Maynard. Maynard went for the kill and failed and his juice was gone.

I think there's a VERY good chance that this will happen on Saturday. Silva will go for the kill. And I think Fitch will survive and win round 2 and 3. I just don't trust the judging (since it's in Brazil) and for that reason, I probably won't bet it.

Originally Posted by TheCalculator

Giga -- as many would say you're doing "MMA math". If guy A beats guy B, and guy B beats guy C... then surely guy A can beat guy C. If you know anything about fighting this is a fallacy.

Sometimes fighters are just BAD MATCH UPS against certain fighters. I think Fitch is a bad match up for Silva. Fitch can easily ride him for 3 rounds if Silva doesn't destroy him in the first 3 to 5 minutes.

As Sonnen said, there's 2 types of fighters:

1. Those who go for the kill.

2. Those who fight for 3 (or 5) rounds.

Those who go for the kill -- if they miss and fail... they've "blown their loads" and now they're at a serious disadvantage. A good example of this is the 1st fight with Edgar and Maynard. Maynard went for the kill and failed and his juice was gone.

I think there's a VERY good chance that this will happen on Saturday. Silva will go for the kill. And I think Fitch will survive and win round 2 and 3. I just don't trust the judging (since it's in Brazil) and for that reason, I probably won't bet it.

Yes very true but Frankie Edgar is a young 28yr who survive the onslaught but Fitch is a 34yr with many injuries. Fitch will likely goes light out before the ref could stop it. I think any tough younger fighter likely survive (recover) or even avoid the leaping left hook from Hendrick from that distant. Fitch is too slow to re-act to that hook, we likely watching a very slow tenacity fighter vs a very explosive ww ever. Can't wait for the fight to happen, I hope no one pull out 2 days from the fight.

ufc-153: Fx prelims -$250


5:15 pm
24099
24100

sam sicilia
rony "jason" mariano bezerra

pk+205
pk-275




5:15 pm
24107
24108

francisco trinaldo
gleison tibau



pk+125
pk-155





5:15 pm
24111
24112

joey gambino
diego brandao

pk+140
pk-170



3:30 pm
24115
24116

renee forte
sergio moraes

pk+185
pk-245






ufc-153: Facebook prelims -$250


3:30 pm
24119
24120

chris camozzi
luiz cane

pk+140
pk-170









3:30 pm
24123
24124

cristiano marcello
reza madadi



pk+170
pk-230

You penetrate up Vaughany.

ha dunno what happened there

Thought camozxi would open as a bigger dog

hoping money pours in on brandao

Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy

Thought camozxi would open as a bigger dog

hoping money pours in on brandao

yeah I thought he'd be about that or +160, but either way, I expect people will bet on Cane so if you like Camozzi you're in a good position either way. I guess oddsmakers (in this case Nick) are not falling for the Banha hype as much anymore after that Nedkov loss where he almost jumped out the octagon after getting tagged! IMO Camozzi is a pretty horrible fight to have when making your debut at MW and coming off a long layoff with injuries. I'll be playing Camozzi as I think there is value at +125 or better

...

Originally Posted by Vaughany

yeah I thought he'd be about that or +160, but either way, I expect people will bet on Cane so if you like Camozzi you're in a good position either way. I guess oddsmakers (in this case Nick) are not falling for the Banha hype as much anymore after that Nedkov loss where he almost jumped out the octagon after getting tagged! IMO Camozzi is a pretty horrible fight to have when making your debut at MW and coming off a long layoff with injuries. I'll be playing Camozzi as I think there is value at +125 or better

How does Camozzi win outside of a KO, though? Granted Cane's chin isn't great, but all his ko's are by legit power guys which I'm not sure if Camozzi has that kind of power. Camozzi isn't going to get him down (or likely even try), so I think he has trouble winning a decision in Brazil against a Brazilian with better (looking) standup. I just can't find a scenario for Camozzi to pull it off outside of a KO.

Originally Posted by NunyaBidness

How does Camozzi win outside of a KO, though? Granted Cane's chin isn't great, but all his ko's are by legit power guys which I'm not sure if Camozzi has that kind of power. Camozzi isn't going to get him down (or likely even try), so I think he has trouble winning a decision in Brazil against a Brazilian with better (looking) standup. I just can't find a scenario for Camozzi to pull it off outside of a KO.

Yep, it's risky because of the home advantage, but Camozzi has a reasonably high volume of striking for a MW and he gets stronger as the fight progresses so I'm basically counting on Cane fading due to lay-off and weight-cut combined with Camozzi's ability to pour it on later on in fights to be the difference. Cane also didnt show the best cardio in the one fight that has gone the distance against Cantwell, but that is understandable seeing as he'd only been past the first round once in his career. Then all of his fights since then have ended in first round so it's been 3 and a half years since he's been past the first round in a fight and it's going to be 14 months since his last fight. I actually think Camozzi will land a knee and finish him by TKO at some point, but maybe I'm under-estimating how good Cane really is and perhaps exaggerating how bad his defense is

Good thinking, I hadn't considered the late fade angle. Line is moving against me as well.

just read that bonnar's wife is going to give birth at any moment (the ufc has a jet on standby to get bonnar straight home after the fight). this cant be a good thing, right? how is dude going to focus on the task at hand?

i originally felt the value was on fight goes distance, but im having second thoughts. bonnar is a tough sob, but if he gets roughed up in round 1, i could see him packing it in and deciding to fly home to baby. dont think he wants baby to see him with a hominick-hematoma.

ha yeah, its Forrest in Brazil before Shogun all over again! Difference is tho Forrest's wife was literally in labour wasnt she? Bonnar's wife isnt due for a month or so I thought I read?