Front Page Picks (Tue., Jun 3)

or, Tuesday Touts Taking Toronto


Blue Jays +109 at New York Yankees

Game Time: 06/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Bryan Leonard | covers.com

Joba Chamberlain has been very successful as a setup arm in New York's bullpen but is unproven as a starter. Get behind the Toronto Blue Jays on the road against the Yankees.

Today is a long awaited day for Yankee fans, the day Joba Chamberlain gets his first start in a New York uniform. While all indications are that he should be a fine starter, his best role is as a short man out of the bullpen.

Chamberlain hasn't thrown more than 40 pitches in an appearance all season and it will take him a while to build up to starters innings. We expect his pitch count to be around 60-70 today which probably means about four innings of work. The problem being that without Chamberlain in the bullpen the Yankee relief effort is weak except for the closer.

Now without Chamberlain pitching the eight inning the team will be hurt late in games. In the long run it may all work out for the Yankees but until he can throw 100 pitches with effectiveness the Yankees are not as good of team with him in this role.

From a bettor's standpoint you are paying a substantial price for a starting pitcher likely to be out of the game by the fifth inning. Toronto on the other hand sends Roy Halladay to the hill and he is known to finish what he started. He has 12 starts on the season and all but one have lasted 6.2 innings or better. The lone short outing was caused by a long rain delay. He has gone eight or more innings this year seven times, he has surpassed 100 pitches ten times. The Toronto starting staff has gone six or more innings for five straight games. That means their bullpen is set up well if they are needed. The same can't be said of the Yankees.

The Blue Jays have the better record and the far more established starter yet they are installed as an underdog. It's buy time on the Blue Jays. Play Toronto.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +109

Chalk up Chicago Cubs -120 at San Diego Padres

Game Time: 06/03/2008 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Cubs have the best record in baseball while the Padres have one of the worst overall and are just 13-16 at home. Take the Cubs at a relatively bargain price.

The Chicago Cubs and the San Diego Padres are certainly on the opposite side of the spectrum in regards to their standings this season, and even with possibly their weakest link on the mound, the Cubs still get the call at this modest price here.

The Cubs in fact have the best record in baseball at 37-21 after taking the series opener 7-6 here last night. They reached that point by going a sparkling 19-7 in their last 26 games overall. Meanwhile, the same Padres team that was a tiebreaking game loss away from the playoffs last year is 23-36 this season, including an uncharacteristic 13-16 here at home.

Now Jason Marquis has struggled for the Cubs, going 2-3 with a 4.98 ERA and a high 1.64 WHIP. However, the Cubs have still managed to go 5-5 in his starts this season, as he has been bailed out a few times by a Cub bullpen that ranks third in the National League with a 3.14 ERA, and which shut down the opposition and allowed the Cubs to come back late. That said, Marquis has allowed three runs or less in his last three starts, although he did fail to go more than six innings in any of them. Still, that may be good enough here, as we trust the fine Chicago pen to shut down the normally weak San Diego offense.

The Padres counter with Wilfredo Ledezma, who is 0-2 with a 4.25 ERA and a high 1.53 WHIP. Ledezma has yet to record a Quality Start this season, and unlike Marquis, he does not have a reliable bullpen to support him, as San Diego ranked 12th out of 14 National League teams with a 4.29 pen ERA. Also, the Padres may have used up their run supply for a week with their six runs last night, given that they are still batting just .229 as a team at home this year.

Look for both of these teams’ fortunes to continue as they have been, which should result in another Cubs victory.

Free Pick: Cubs -120

GL never seen u post a pick

Halladay, Blue Jays +110 at Yankees

Game Time: 06/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Joba Chamberlain will be a solid starter, but with a pitch limit tonight and up against Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, no way the Yankees young righty should be laying the chalk.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays in the Bronx over the New York Yankees.

The great Joba experiment is about to begin. By that I mean of course that we are about to find out whether taking their best setup man, 22-year-old right-hander Joba Chamberlain, and moving him into the rotation is going to pay off or backfire for the Yankees. The problem with this experiment is simply that with Chamberlain having been so good this year between the seventh and ninth innings, the Yankees will need to fill that gap now that he will not be available during that time.

They will probably try and fill this setup role mostly with 32-year-old veteran right-hander Kyle Farnsworth, but unfortunately Farnsworth has been average at best so far this season. And they won't just need somebody for the eighth inning but most likely for the seventh and possibly even the sixth as Chamberlain will be limited tonight in his first start of his career to something like 65 or 70 pitches and with the rest of the Yankee bullpen struggling a bit recently, this could be a huge problem.

The other problem is that they've picked a pretty tough opposing starter in veteran right-hander and former Cy Young winner Roy Halladay for Joba to debut against. Halladay is having one of his best seasons ever as his ERA is under three runs, his strikeouts are back up (71 in 89 innings) and his walks are down (only 11 so far).

He is only 6-5 on the season, but 3-0 in his last three starts and Toronto is 7-2 in his last nine starts against the Yanks. Take the Blue Jays.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +110

Harang, Cincinnati Reds -101 at Philadelphia Phillies

Game Time: 06/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

After dropping a close one to the Phillies last night, expect the Reds to bounce back behind Aaron Harang on Tuesday. Lay it on Cincinnati at Philadelphia tonight.

The Reds lost a tough one last night in the opener of this series which snapped a three-game winning streak. Cincinnati has won seven of 10 games so the one setback is no cause for concern, especially one coming by a single run.

Going back further, the Reds are 13-7 in their last 20 games and have been able to once again flirt with the .500 mark. The offense has been on a role, averaging 6.0 rpg over the last 10 games and the pitching has been solid as well with a 3.51 ERA over that span.

For the Phillies, the win was their second straight and seventh in the last eight games. The offense has cooled off considerably, averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last three after putting up an average of 12 RPG in its previous five games. Last night was the first game in the last four that the bats have produced an average higher than .207. Pitching has been very solid throughout the season but over the last 10 games, the starters have posted a 5.54 ERA and I expect more problems tonight.

One play-against rule of mine is to go against lower tiered pitchers coming off consecutive quality starts. Along the same lines is to play on a top tiered pitcher coming off two bad outings and Aaron Harang falls into that category. He is off back-to-back blowups including his last outing which was his worst of the season. In the middle of those games was a four-inning relief appearance in which he allowed no runs. He has been a hard luck pitcher, getting just 2.8 RPG of support in five road starts.

Adam Eaton is part of the first situation mentioned as he is coming off back-to-back quality starts. Eaton is far from a top-tiered pitcher as his ERA of 4.99 clearly proves that. Prior to the two quality outings, he had a 5.59 ERA through nine outings which follows an ERA of 6.29 last season and 5.12 two years ago.

It took 11 starts for Eaton to notch his first victory showing how inconsistent of a season it has been. The Phillies are 1-4 in Eaton’s last five starts. Play Cincinnati for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Reds -101

Halladay, Toronto +114 at Yankees

Game Time: 06/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Stephen Nover | covers.com

The lines suggest Joba Chamberlain is an established ace. He's not, but Toronto's Roy Halladay is. Back the Blue Jays and their ace tonight in New York versus the Yankees.

Joba Chamberlain is an outstanding setup man. But as a starting pitcher, he's totally untested. Yet the oddsmaker has priced him like he's an established ace. He isn't. But Toronto's Roy Halladay is.

Halladay is in good form, too, giving up three earned runs during his last three appearances spanning 19.1 innings. He has a 16-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in this time frame. Halladay has been a Yankee killer, too. Toronto is 8-3 versus New York during Halladay's past 11 starts against the Yankees. Halladay has a lifetime 3.03 ERA versus New York.

Chamberlain will be lucky to last five innings because he'll be on a 65-75 pitch count. Moving Chamberlain into the starting rotation weakens New York's bullpen. The main setup man is now Kyle Farnsworth. That's not good if you're the Yankees.

The Blue Jays are rested, having been idle on Monday while the Yankees were losing a tough 6-5 road game to Minnesota courtesy of Farnsworth. Toronto has won eight of its last 11 games.

This is New York's first home game following a seven-game road trip. So the Yankees may not have their full concentration yet, especially with all the New York media hype surrounding Chamberlain's first major league start.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +114

That many cappers on Toronto is never good.....My lean Toronto as well though

White Sox -125 vs. KC Royals

Game Time: 06/03/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com

Ozzie Guillen is mad and his latest tirade could just fire up the struggling White Sox bats. Back Chicago tonight at home on the South Side against the Kansas City Royals.

On Tuesday in MLB, amidst all the attention focused on the starts of Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Martinez and Dontrelle Willis, I think one game that presents solid line value is the Kansas City/Chicago White Sox matchup pitting Zack Greinke against Gavin Floyd. I’ll be taking a shot with Floyd and the White Sox as modest home faves in the -125 range.

Royals’ starter Greinke has enjoyed an impressive comeback season this year, without question, and I have backed him on numerous occasions with profitable results. But 2008 has also been a coming out year for White Sox’ starter Floyd, a guy who was for a long time touted as having great potential, but who was nevertheless a flop in the big leagues until now. But things have really come together for Floyd this year, so much so that he seems to flirt with a no-hitter every other home start he makes, and getting him as a small home favorite against the lukewarm KC lineup looks to have small but solid value to me.

Greinke, for his part, has come a bit down to earth recently after a dominant string of starts to open the season. He is still pitching well, but there are chinks beginning to show in his armor. His ERA and hit totals are on the rise – only a bit, but significantly so nonetheless. A glance at his splits this year for April and May tell the story. While May was still a month where he was a quality starter, and where he did put up some quality peripheral stats, his overall performance was more pedestrian than you would like to see when backing KC on the road at the line the betting odds are currently giving.

The Royals have now won two in a row after their abject 12-game losing streak that closed out May, but their fundamental problems as a team remain. They have been swept in their last two road series, the first against Boston, but the next at hands of the less formidable Toronto. The White Sox are not quite a powerhouse of a team themselves, despite leading the AL Central, but with Floyd on the mound and a decent bullpen backing him up, I think they are the side with value here. So my pick for Tuesday is the White Sox -125.

Cincinnati Reds -102 at Philadelphia Phillies behind Harang

Game Time: 06/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Cincinnati right-hander Aaron Harang has been a road warrior in June as well as his last three starts in Philadelphia. Look for the Reds to slow the Phillies Tuesday night.

The Reds take on the Phillies in Game 2 of this four-game series in Philadelphia Tuesday night behind the steady serves of Aaron Harang.

And steady he is, having won 11 of his last 16 road starts in June and each of his last three starts in this park. With Harang off a loss and in great KW form with three walks and 15 strikeouts in his last three starts, look for the Reds to come up big here tonight. We recommend a one-unit play on Cincinnati with Harang.

Free Pick: Reds -102

Love the Sox in this spot

Boston Red Sox -119 vs. TB Rays

Game Time: 06/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | sportspic.com

With a 21-5 record at Fenway this season, catching the Red Sox at this price is too good to pass up. Back Boston at home Tuesday when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays.

I'm laying the price with the Red Sox at home in Boston's Fenway Park with Justin Masterson over Matt Garza and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Yes, I do know David Ortiz will be sidelined for a while. But Masterson has been fantastic through his first two outings and I expect more of the same tonight. The 23-year-old right-hander has allowed just two earned runs and 12 base runners in his first two starts, lasting 6.0 and 6.1 innings. That adds up to a red-hot 1.46 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a .128 BAA!

Meanwhile, Garza has had his clock cleaned away from home. He's made four trips to the visiting mound and has been smacked around for a 5.64 ERA and .281 BAA. His four hosts have averaged almost seven runs per game in those outings. Even without Ortiz, I expect more of the same from the home-standing Red Sox.

Boston is 21-5 at Fenway this season and will be even more focused with one of their leaders sidelined. I'll lay the price with Boston on Tuesday.

Free Pick: Red Sox -119

Blue Jays +110 over Joba & NY Yanks

Game Time: 06/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Tonight marks Joba Chamberlain’s much ballyhooed first start for the Yankees, but the Yanks lose the best set-up man in baseball in the process, and he has the misfortune to be facing Roy Halladay.

Joba Chamberlain makes his highly anticipated first start for the New York Yankees tonight, but not only are we not convinced this is such a good move, but he also has the misfortune of being matched up with one of the best pitchers in baseball, Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Our main problem with converting Joba into a starter is that he was arguably the best set-up man in baseball, and we feel he is much more valuable assuming that role every two days or so than he is starting every five days. Besides, he will obviously be on a pitch count tonight, and he there is not a real suitable replacement for him once the seventh and eighth innings roll around.

Of course, facing Halladay may be the biggest disadvantage of all. The Cy Young candidate looked like his old self in his last start allowing just one run in eight innings with nine strikeouts vs. the Oakland Athletics. Halladay’s 6-5 record can be attributable to the Jays’ offensive struggles earlier in the season, as he still has a 2.93 ERA with a spectacular 0.99 WHIP in 89 innings. Furthermore, Toronto has snapped out of its offensive slump, hitting .287 as a team while averaging 5.30 runs over their last 10 games.

Halladay has also allowed a grand total of five earned runs over 37 innings in his last five starts at Yankee Stadium, so look for him to lead the Blue Jays to victory here.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +110

Here you go Willie, just wanted to give some negative feedback for ya to move to expose how protective you are of the front page TOUTS. I am sure you'll let J$'s positive remarks stand, because of how fair and balanced you are. Hell, you should audition for a role in Fox News.

keep my name out your mouth crazyl

Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds go Over 10

Game Time: 06/03/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

Chase Utley is on fire for the Phillies and Jay Bruce has ignited the Reds since being called up. That makes the Over easy to back in this Cincinnati, Philadelphia contest.

Both of these pitchers have struggled this season and Aaron Harang (2-7, 3.81 ERA) has struggled over his last three starts with an ERA of 6.61 while lasting just 5.4 innings per start. Harang has struggled against the Phillies in the past with an ERA of 6.62 over six career starts against them.

The Phillies are hitting .300 as a team while averaging nine runs per game over their last eight games and the Reds are hitting .283 as a team over their last seven games while averaging 6.6 RPG. Cincinnati opponents are hitting .291 against them on the road this season while averaging 5.6 RPG and the Reds bullpen has struggled on the road with an ERA of 5.32 over 94.7 innings pitched.

The O/U is 21-6 for the Reds in their last 27 road games when the posted total is 10 to 10½, and the O/U is 1-6 for the Reds in their last seven games at Philadelphia. Take the Over for Tuesday night

Free Pick: Reds-Phillies Over 10 (+105)