Calmeats MLB 2014

that Score-First Chase has been especially unfriendly...

i'll bet that the first two ML-based chases both "test out" (looking backward) and "play out" (looking forward) way better than any of the others (which would be fun to run IF you got a lot of extra bankroll)...given limited $-resources i'd consider dropping these "unproductive" divisions of my business

it'd be a shame if you didn't have enough $ to back some game-C's of your main (League and Series) ML chases because of $ tied up in the others...

myself, i'd consider continuing to track the others...but only back the two main ones with $ until overall bank large enoug to "set aside" some just for these secondary and apparently more volatile chases

fitguy i was thinking the same thought about it last week but im a sucker for the score first but i am now going to tighten down onto the ML chases.

MLB 5/23/14

ML League Chase AL +$9.15 17-3 (0 open) NL +$31.67 19-1 (0 open)
Gm1(AL) - DET (-179) $5.00
Gm1(NL) - LAD (-175) $5.00

ML Series Chase -$5.92 42-5 (1 Open)
Gm2 DET (-185) $25.62

RL Series Chase -$13.01 12-4 (0 Open)
NoPlays

Run 1st Inning(RFI) Chase -$19.59 16-6 (0 Open)
Gm1 MIL/MIA

No Run 1st Inning(NRFI) Chase +$1 16-2 (0 Open)
Gm1 CHC/SD

Score First Chase(SF) -$95.09 32-6 (0 Open)
Gm1 LAA
Gm1 CIN
Gm1 NYM
Gm1 NYY

Unofficial Plays +$5 6-1 (0 Open)
No Plays

*All wagers are "to win"

and for the score first chase was so bad so far becuase there was 2 series i felt really confident in and put extra money on it and the line was close to or above -200 and that can kill you in chases when you bet extra on those series and they lose. So either way it hasnt been good but if played right wouldnt be as bad as it is right now.

how many games has NYM gone without scoring first...the last 3 of course, and probably a few more to trigger the chase)...

i know from roulette/baccarat/etc. that when a streak gets very long (say 10 reds in a row)...better not start chasing the streak to end...better to wait for it to end itself (sometime at something ridiculous like 16...which would have killed you if you started/continued chasing it to end)...better to wait till it ends itself...so now it's 16-1...then start hitting the other side...cuz regression will eventually kick in, and after a very red-rich stretch...a black-rich period is due

so, instead of continuing to chase NYM to score first...we wait for them to finally do it themselves...and bet them rather heavy fo the next 4 or 5 games to score first...

just like R & B in roulette, these things do "average" out around 50%, but tend to do so in "runs", some surprisingly long in an "ebb" and "flow"...lots of yes for a while...then lots of no for a while...

most of the streaks in either direction are rather short, which is why chases tend to work (WHEN they work)...(especially when u go ML with good teams v. bad teams which have a much higher ML hit-rate than 50%...shortens the losing-spells greatly)...which is why i like thos ML-chases so much better...

good teams -1.5 make it more like a coin flip/roulette spin...and rfi/sf are already coin flip/roulette spin types, so nothing to stop ridiculously-long losing run cuz "over 3 tyms in a row" one result is common...but for big-faves losing 3ML in a row quite rare, which is why your ML-based chases are the better ones to concentrate on...

you can do R/B chases with roulette much more conveniently than following the -1.5's, rfi's, and sf's...but with the ML's you got a much higer base win% on your side

Hi all,

We had company and almost forgot to post game.

5/23/14

STL +100 1 un

update later.


GLTA

Ali & Mitch

Yesterday, 1-1-1 +.03un

56-62-2 -4.27un

going to a kids bday today so gonna get this out early.

MLB 5/24/14

ML League Chase AL +$14.15 18-3 (0 open) NL +$36.67 20-1 (0 open)
Gm1(AL) - DET (-175) $5.00
Gm1(NL) - ATL (-152) $5.00

ML Series Chase +$7.08 43-5 (0 Open)
NoPlays

RL Series Chase -$13.01 12-4 (0 Open)
NoPlays

Run 1st Inning(RFI) Chase -$19.59 16-6 (0 Open)
NoPlays

No Run 1st Inning(NRFI) Chase +$1 16-2 (1 Open)
Gm2 CHC/SD

Score First Chase(SF) -$95.09 32-6 (1 Open)
Gm2 LAA
Gm1 NYM

Unofficial Plays +$5 6-1 (0 Open)
No Plays

*All wagers are "to win"

Calmeat have fun with the kids bday party.

Good morning to all and we missed the shower last night too cloudy.

Yesterday 0-1 -1.00u

56-63-2 -5.27u

5/24/14 games:

None

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

enjoy party...we'll "cmon mets! score first you bastids!!" for you

Oh, what a beautiful sunn morning to all,

Yesterday no game.

5/25/14 games:

CUBS +130 1u

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

Lets get them today. Fitguy im not playing those the ones that have a line and money amount next to them are the only ones i am actually playing other ones i am just tracking

MLB 5/24/14

ML League Chase AL +$14.15 18-3 (0 open) NL +$36.67 20-1 (0 open)
Gm1(AL) - DET (-165) $13.75
Gm1(NL) - ATL (-169) $12.60

ML Series Chase +$7.08 43-5 (0 Open)
NoPlays

RL Series Chase -$13.01 12-4 (0 Open)
NoPlays

Run 1st Inning(RFI) Chase -$19.59 16-6 (0 Open)
NoPlays

No Run 1st Inning(NRFI) Chase +$1 17-2 (0 Open)
NoPlays

Score First Chase(SF) -$95.09 32-6 (2 Open)
Gm3 LAA
Gm2 NYM

Unofficial Plays +$5 6-1 (0 Open)
No Plays

*All wagers are "to win"

So yesterday if i waited things out NYY would have been the play instead of DET. I actually almost pulled the trigger on NYY but at the time NYY was a little out of the scope and DET was the play, Im thinking of not starting a League chase on the weekends cause its just tough to wait it out like usual. Today is the same kind of deal since there are early games but i havent learned my lesson yet. But I will be waiting till 3 before i post or make those plays.

MLB 5/26/14

ML League Chase AL -$17.29 18-4 (0 open) NL +$41.67 21-1 (0 open)
Gm1(AL) - (-) $15.72
Gm1(NL) - (-) $5.00

ML Series Chase +$7.08 43-5 (0 Open)
Gm1 ATL (-121) $2.50
Gm1 SFG (-133) $2.50

RL Series Chase -$13.01 12-4 (0 Open)
NoPlays

Run 1st Inning(RFI) Chase -$19.59 17-6 (0 Open)
Gm1 NYY/STL
Gm1 DET/OAK

No Run 1st Inning(NRFI) Chase +$1 17-2 (0 Open)
Gm1 TB/TOR
Gm1 CIN/LAD
Gm1 SD/ARI
Gm1 HOU/KC
Gm1 TEX/MIN

Score First Chase(SF) -$95.09 34-8 (0 Open)
Gm1 WSH
Gm1 LAA
Gm1 SFG

Unofficial Plays +$5 6-1 (0 Open)
No Plays

*All wagers are "to win"

Have a great Memorial day for those in the states.

Morning all and Happy Holidays and Especially to all our Soldiers...Thank you!

Yesterday, 0-1 -1.00u

56-64-2 -6.27u

5/26/14 games:

CIN +106 1u
CLE +104 1un

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

MLB 5/27/14

ML League Chase AL -$17.29 18-4 (0 open) NL +$41.67 21-1 (0 open)
Gm1(AL) - CWS (-156) $15.72
Gm1(NL) - LAD (-180) $5.00

ML Series Chase +$7.08 43-5 (2 Open)
Gm2 ATL (-102) $5.53
Gm2 SFG (-163) $5.83

RL Series Chase -$13.01 12-4 (0 Open)
NoPlays

Run 1st Inning(RFI) Chase -$19.59 18-6 (1 Open)
Gm2 DET/OAK

No Run 1st Inning(NRFI) Chase +$1 19-2 (3 Open)
Gm2 TB/TOR
Gm2 HOU/KC
Gm2 TEX/MIN

Score First Chase(SF) -$95.09 35-8 (2 Open)
Gm2 WSH
Gm2 LAA

Unofficial Plays +$5 6-1 (0 Open)
No Plays

*All wagers are "to win"

No didn't forget and hello to all. It's very hot here 108* and that's in the shade.

Yesterday, 0-2 -2.00u

56-66-2 -8.27u

We're still with the dogs and some small favs and we'll see what happens today.

5/27/14 games:

CO +107 1u
NYM UN 8 -120 1u
TOR -108 1u
HOU +117 1u
BAL +115 1u

GLTA

Ali & Mitch